Ravi Prabhu

Multiple criteria decision making approaches to assessing forest sustainability using criteria and indicators: a case study☆

Abstract This paper describes the use of multiple criteria decision making techniques as decision tools for assessing criteria and indicators designed to evaluate sustainable forest management. Three techniques called ranking, rating, and pairwise comparisons are described and used within the framework of a generic set of criteria and indicators applied in a case study involving a forest concession in Kalimantan, Indonesia. For the case study, an assessment team consisting of national and international experts representing various disciplines was chosen to conduct an assessment of the forest concession. The criteria and indicators (C&I) developed by the Center for International Forestry Research was used as a reference. From this generic set of C&I, the assessment team made revisions to make the set more relevant to the prevailing conditions in the forest concession. This modified set was used in the assessment of the concession. Results from the study indicate that these techniques are effective tools both for selecting sets of criteria and indicators and eventually for prioritizing them. The methods are highly transparent, easy to understand, and offer a convenient environment for participatory decision making. These are desirable features of any evaluation process but most especially for a complex assessment problem such as forest sustainability.

Qualitative multi-criteria approaches to assessing indicators of sustainable forest resource management

Abstract Criteria and indicators (C&I) have become primary tools in implementing the principle of sustainable resource management. To carry out this principle, it is necessary to develop methodologies that can holistically and systematically generate relevant indicators for a particular forest or resource management unit. This paper describes some methodologies that can be used as tools to carry out structured analysis of C&I. Multi-criteria analysis (MCA) is used as a decision-making tool to analyze and evaluate multiple C&I under a participatory group decision-making environment. Use of the method enables the generation of C&I, estimation of their relative importance, estimation of the performance of each indicator relative to its desired condition, and assessment of the indicators’ combined effect or impact. In addition to generating C&I and estimating their relative importance and performance, the paper also presents a soft methodology, called cognitive mapping, which can be used to assess the cross-indicator interaction, linkages, and connectivities of the indicators. The method attempts to evaluate the overall cumulative impacts of all indicators, individually and collectively, as they impact sustainability directly and indirectly through their interactions with other indicators.

Factors affecting runoff and soil erosion: plot-level soil loss monitoring for assessing sustainability of forest management

Abstract The assessment on key ecological factors affecting runoff and soil erosion and the usefulness of plot-level monitoring of soil erosion was conducted by collecting runoff and soil loss records from 14 runoff plots. The runoff plots were set up in two catchments in Central Kalimantan, Indonesia, where conventional logging and Reduced Impact Logging (RIL) took place. Runoff plots were set up in forest areas with different levels of logging disturbances, i.e. harvesting areas (four plots), skid trails (six plots), and undisturbed/control areas (four plots). The magnitude of runoff and soil loss from skid trail plots were found to be the highest, followed by control plots and harvest plots. Canopy cover, sapling density, litter depth and woody debris appeared to be important ecological factors that determine the magnitude of soil loss. Tree canopy determines the size and erosive power of the raindrops. Sapling, litter layer, and woody debris protected soil surface, thus preventing soil detachment, and provided surface roughness that minimised soil particle movement down the slope. The roles of these ecological factors were less significant compared to rainfall in determining the magnitude of runoff. Canopy cover, sapling density, litter depth and woody debris can be measured quantitatively or qualitatively without complicated equipment and methods. Furthermore, they are sensitive to logging disturbance which make them suitable verifiers of soil erosion. Forest managers need to limit disturbance to these factors in order to minimise soil erosion in their logging operation areas. Monitoring of soil loss using runoff plots was cost-effective and provided valuable information about soil erosion risks caused by logging operations. Runoff plots clearly demonstrated site disturbances where the plots are located. Monitoring allowed more direct linkages to be made between management practices and their impacts on runoff and soil erosion, thereby enabling forest managers to identify problems and take appropriate preventive measures to improve their management practices.

Development of a Methodology for Selecting Criteria and Indicators of Sustainable Forest Management: A Case Study on Participatory Assessment

This paper describes an application of multiple criteria analysis (MCA) in assessing criteria and indicators adapted for a particular forest management unit. The methods include: ranking, rating, and pairwise comparisons. These methods were used in a participatory decision-making environment where a team representing various stakeholders and professionals used their expert opinions and judgements in assessing different criteria and indicators (C&I) on the one hand, and how suitable and applicable they are to a forest management unit on the other. A forest concession located in Kalimantan, Indonesia, was used as the site for the case study. Results from the study show that the multicriteria methods are effective tools that can be used as structured decision aids to evaluate, prioritize, and select sets of C&I for a particular forest management unit. Ranking and rating approaches can be used as a screening tool to develop an initial list of C&I. Pairwise comparison, on the other hand, can be used as a finer filter to further reduce the list. In addition to using these three MCA methods, the study also examines two commonly used group decision-making techniques, the Delphi method and the nominal group technique. Feedback received from the participants indicates that the methods are transparent, easy to implement, and provide a convenient environment for participatory decision-making.

Participatory modelling to enhance social learning, collective action and mobilization among users of the Mafungautsi forest, Zimbabwe

Participatory modelling can be a useful process to encourage critical examination of livelihood options and foster sustainable natural resource use through enhanced social learning, collective action and mobilization. The broom-grass group in the Mafungautsi Forest Reserve serves as a case study of the process and outcomes of such participatory modelling. Innovative group facilitation methods enhanced participation in the modelling process. The modelling process complements broader efforts to achieve higher levels of adaptive collaborative management.

Collaborative modelling to support forest management: qualitative systems analysis at Lumut Mountain, Indonesia

Complex ecological and social processes in tropical forests imply that observations on any single element of the system do not provide an adequate basis for sound forest management. A collaborative modelling process engaging all relevant stakeholders led to a shared understanding of how to manage forests around Lumut Mountain, Pasir District, East Kalimantan. The model was developed by identifying forest management objectives, building a conceptual model using a causal loop diagram, and defining performance indicators. The model was then used to explore future scenarios to improve the well-being of local stakeholders while maintaining forest quality. Finally, roles needed to implement the chosen scenarios were defined and assigned to individual participants. This qualitative modelling process was found to be an effective way to assist the development of a collaborative action plan.

Modelling interactions amongst people and forest resources at the landscape scale

FLORES, the Forest Land Oriented Resource Envisioning System, is a framework to facilitate quantitative modelling of ecological, economic and social issues at the landscape scale. This issue ofSmall-scale Forest Economics, Management and Policy describes the evolution of FLORES from a concept to a series of models calibrated for diverse locations, and documents the lessons learned.The idea to construct and use landscape-scale models of the forest frontier, based on simulating household decisions and land use at a spatial scale close to the field level, arose from a desire to add rigour to land-use policy research at CIFOR, the Center for International Forestry Research (Vanclay 1995). This simulation modelling approach to addressing interdisciplinary issues, where people are strongly interacting with forest resources, became known as FLORES, the Forest Land Oriented Resource Envisioning System (Vanclay 1998). Muetzelfeldtet al. (1998) constructed a simple prototype of a FLORES model to illustrate the concept and demonstrate the ability of a system-dynamics modelling environment to animate such a model (Muetzelfeldt and Taylor 1997, 2001, Muetzelfeldt and Massheder 2003). In 1999, FLORES became a reality, when 50 scientists from diverse disciplines met in Bukittinggi, Indonesia to construct the first FLORES model styled on this prototype (CIFOR 1999, Vanclayet al. 2003).

ZimFlores: A Model to Advise Co-management of the Mafungautsi Forest in Zimbabwe

ZimFlores (version 4) is the outcome of a participatory modelling process and seeks to provide a shared factual basis for exploring land-use options for the communal lands surrounding the Mafungautsi forest. The ZimFlores experience underscores the importance of a sharing a common problem and a common location in which all participants have an interest. Participatory modelling has proved an effective way to consolidate a diverse body of knowledge and make it accessible. Results demonstrate the importance of model outputs that are diagnostic, and which offer insights into the issues under consideration.

Unlocking Complexity: The Importance of Idealisation in Simulation Modelling

Idealisation is the process of finding simple representations of the real-world whilst conceptualising a model. There are three ways to limit complication in a model of a complex real-world: byfocussing the scope of the modelling process onto a clearly defined issue; byidealising elements of the real-world during model conceptualisation; and bysimplifying the implemented simulation program. Careful idealisation has the greatest potential for increasing model tractability whilst generating insights during the model design process. The Forest Land Oriented Resource Envisioning System (FLORES) project deals with social forest landscapes which are highly complex. Benefits of idealisation are demonstrated using six examples from this modelling work. These examples encompass issues dealing with land tenure, forest management, economic values, social diversity, communication and collaboration. Each example illustrates a different method to achieve an idealisation which yields insights relevant for policy players. A number of lessons about idealisation are also identified: (1) sometimes it is only possible to recognise what is key by omitting it; (2) an effective idealisation is not just achieved by leaving things out, or adding them back in; it can also be achieved by restructuring the representation; (3) it is important challenge the use of different units where consistency is possible; (4) it is easier to keep a simple model simple, than to make simple modifications to a large model. Similarly, it is easier to generate insights with a simple concept for a sub-model than with a simple modification to an existing model; and (5) even the most useful idealisations may have a limited shelf-life.

Infectious Ideas: Modelling the Diffusion of Ideas across Social Networks

Will the practice of collecting wild honey wearing no clothes become a widespread practice in Zimbabwe? Or will beekeeping take over as the main way that people acquire honey? Both practices impact on forest resources; how can the foresters influence the uptake of these ideas? This paper describes an exploratory modelling study investigating how social network patterns affect the way ideas spread around communities. It concludes that increasing the density of social networks increases the spread of successful ideas whilst speeding the loss of ideas with no competitive advantage. Some different kinds of competitive advantage are explored in the context of forest management and rural extension.