Raymond Tanter

A theory of revolution

While prior studies have delineated dimensions of conflict behavior within nations (Rummel, 1963, 1966, 1967; Tanter, 1965, 1966) in order to discover the variables most representative of internal conflict, a purpose of the present inquiry is to discover their theoretical significance. A typology of revolution is presented and two possible causes of revolution-changes in economic development and level of education-are examined regarding the extent of their association with certain characteristics of revolution. Regional differences are found which imply a fundamental distinction between at least two of the categories in the typology.

International System and Foreign Policy Approaches: Implications for Conflict Modelling and Management

The quotations from Charles A. McClelland and Graham T. Allison represent two distinct approaches to the study of international relations: (i) international system analysis; and (2) foreign policy analysis. Essentially, international system analysts seek to explain interactions between nations by phenomena such as their prior interactions and the structure of the system. Foreign policy analysts, on the other hand, seek to explain foreign policy behavior as the output of subnational organizations following standard operating procedures or engaging in a problem-solving search. Given the international system and foreign policy approaches as contrasting points of departure, the goals of the present study are:

The Policy Relevance of Models in World Politics

Abstract : This paper evaluates the policy relevance of models according to two criteria: (1) the degree to which policy makers may perceive they have control over predictors in the model; and (2) the degree of confidence policy makers may have in the models implications. An evaluation is made of various models applicable in world politics from the perspective of their policy relevance. These include: game theory models and experimental games, man-machine simulation models, aggregate data models, and computer simulation models and information systems.

Field and environmental approaches to world politics: implications for data archives

Negotiations of statesmen might be facilitated if the entire field of international relations were so represented that the negotiator could see the relations of the circles and vectors representing their respective peoples, nations, states, and governments located at particular points in the geographical and analytical fields, and moving in certain directions in the latter. An observer might calculate with less margin of error the probable outcome of such negotiations [Wright, 1955, p. 566].

Revolutionen: eine quantitative Analyse

Im Mittelpunkt dieser Studie steht die empirische Untersuchung einiger Variablen, die als Ursachen von Revolutionen genannt werden. Wahrend in fruheren Studien des International Relations Program 1 die Dimensionen von innerstaatlichen Konflikten mit der Absicht erortert wurden, die fur den inneren Konflikt wichtigsten Variablen erst einmal herausuzarbeiten 2, untersucht die vorliegende Studie deren theoretische Bedeutsamkeit. Wir werden zunachst eine Typologie von Revolutionen entwickeln; sodann werden wir den Zusammenhang zwischen zwei moglichen Revolutionsursachen — Veranderungen in der wirtschaftlichen Entwicklung und Ausbildungsniveau der Bevolkerung – und bestimmten charakteristischen Merkmalen von Revolutionen untersuchen. Wir sind auf regionale Unterschiede gestosen, die eine grundsatzliche Unterscheidung zwischen mindestens zwei Kategorien der Typologie erfordern. Abschliesend werden wir Hypothesen formulieren, die wenigstens einen Teil der Ergebnisse dieser Studie erklaren.