Rebecca A. O'Leary

Elicitation by design in ecology: using expert opinion to inform priors for Bayesian statistical models

Bayesian statistical modeling has several benefits within an ecological context. In particular, when observed data are limited in sample size or representativeness, then the Bayesian framework provides a mechanism to combine observed data with other prior information. Prior information may be obtained from earlier studies, or in their absence, from expert knowledge. This use of the Bayesian framework reflects the scientific learning cycle, where prior or initial estimates are updated when new data become available. In this paper we outline a framework for statistical design of expert elicitation processes for quantifying such expert knowledge, in a form suitable for input as prior information into Bayesian models. We identify six key elements: determining the purpose and motivation for using prior information; specifying the relevant expert knowledge available; formulating the statistical model; designing effective and efficient numerical encoding; managing uncertainty; and designing a practical elicitation protocol. We demonstrate this framework applies to a variety of situations, with two examples from the ecological literature and three from our experience. Analysis of these examples reveals several recurring important issues affecting practical design of elicitation in ecological problems.

Sliding/Rolling Phobic Droplets along a Fiber: Measurement of Interfacial Forces

Phobic droplet-fiber systems possess complex geometries, which have made full characterization of such systems difficult. This work has used atomic force microscopy (AFM) to measure droplet-fiber forces for oil droplets on oleophobic fibers over a range of fiber diameters. The work adapted a previous method and a theoretical model developed by the authors for philic droplet-fiber systems. A Bayesian statistical model was also used to account for the influence of surface roughness on the droplet-fiber force. In general, it has been found that the force required to move a liquid droplet along an oleophobic filter fiber will be less than that required to move a droplet along an oleophilic fiber. However, because of the effects of pinning and/or wetting behavior, this difference may be less than would otherwise be expected. Droplets with a greater contact angle (~110°) were observed to roll along the fiber, whereas droplets with a lesser contact angle (<90°) would slide.