Rebecca G. Asch

Elevated CO2 Enhances Otolith Growth in Young Fish

Acidification of the oceans may have unexpected effects on the development of bony structures in fish larvae. A large fraction of the carbon dioxide added to the atmosphere by human activity enters the sea, causing ocean acidification. We show that otoliths (aragonite ear bones) of young fish grown under high CO2 (low pH) conditions are larger than normal, contrary to expectation. We hypothesize that CO2 moves freely through the epithelium around the otoliths in young fish, accelerating otolith growth while the local pH is controlled. This is the converse of the effect commonly reported for structural biominerals.

Climate change and decadal shifts in the phenology of larval fishes in the California Current ecosystem

Significance In terrestrial ecosystems, earlier phenology (i.e., seasonal timing) is a hallmark organismal response to global warming. Less is known about marine phenological responses to climate change, especially in Eastern Boundary Current Upwelling (EBCU) ecosystems that generate >20% of fish catch. The phenology of 43 EBCU fish species was examined over 58 years; 39% of phenological events occurred earlier in recent decades, with faster changes than many terrestrial ecosystems. Zooplankton did not shift their phenology synchronously with most fishes. Fishes that aren’t changing their phenology synchronously with zooplankton may be subject to mismatches with prey, potentially leading to reduced recruitment to fisheries. Adjusting the timing of seasonal management tactics (e.g., fishery closures, hatchery releases) may help ensure that management remains effective. Climate change has prompted an earlier arrival of spring in numerous ecosystems. It is uncertain whether such changes are occurring in Eastern Boundary Current Upwelling ecosystems, because these regions are subject to natural decadal climate variability, and regional climate models predict seasonal delays in upwelling. To answer this question, the phenology of 43 species of larval fishes was investigated between 1951 and 2008 off southern California. Ordination of the fish community showed earlier phenological progression in more recent years. Thirty-nine percent of seasonal peaks in larval abundance occurred earlier in the year, whereas 18% were delayed. The species whose phenology became earlier were characterized by an offshore, pelagic distribution, whereas species with delayed phenology were more likely to reside in coastal, demersal habitats. Phenological changes were more closely associated with a trend toward earlier warming of surface waters rather than decadal climate cycles, such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and North Pacific Gyre Oscillation. Species with long-term advances and delays in phenology reacted similarly to warming at the interannual time scale as demonstrated by responses to the El Niño Southern Oscillation. The trend toward earlier spawning was correlated with changes in sea surface temperature (SST) and mesozooplankton displacement volume, but not coastal upwelling. SST and upwelling were correlated with delays in fish phenology. For species with 20th century advances in phenology, future projections indicate that current trends will continue unabated. The fate of species with delayed phenology is less clear due to differences between Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change models in projected upwelling trends.

Reconciling fisheries catch and ocean productivity

Significance Phytoplankton provide the energy that sustains marine fish populations. The relationship between phytoplankton productivity and fisheries catch, however, is complicated by uncertainty in catch estimates, fishing effort, and marine food web dynamics. We enlist global data sources and a high-resolution earth system model to address these uncertainties. Results show that cross-ecosystem fisheries catch differences far exceeding differences in phytoplankton production can be reconciled with fishing effort and variations in marine food web structure and energy transfer efficiency. Food web variations explaining contemporary fisheries catch act to amplify projected catch trends under climate change, suggesting catch changes that may exceed a factor of 2 for some regions. Failing to account for this would hinder adaptation to climate change. Photosynthesis fuels marine food webs, yet differences in fish catch across globally distributed marine ecosystems far exceed differences in net primary production (NPP). We consider the hypothesis that ecosystem-level variations in pelagic and benthic energy flows from phytoplankton to fish, trophic transfer efficiencies, and fishing effort can quantitatively reconcile this contrast in an energetically consistent manner. To test this hypothesis, we enlist global fish catch data that include previously neglected contributions from small-scale fisheries, a synthesis of global fishing effort, and plankton food web energy flux estimates from a prototype high-resolution global earth system model (ESM). After removing a small number of lightly fished ecosystems, stark interregional differences in fish catch per unit area can be explained (r = 0.79) with an energy-based model that (i) considers dynamic interregional differences in benthic and pelagic energy pathways connecting phytoplankton and fish, (ii) depresses trophic transfer efficiencies in the tropics and, less critically, (iii) associates elevated trophic transfer efficiencies with benthic-predominant systems. Model catch estimates are generally within a factor of 2 of values spanning two orders of magnitude. Climate change projections show that the same macroecological patterns explaining dramatic regional catch differences in the contemporary ocean amplify catch trends, producing changes that may exceed 50% in some regions by the end of the 21st century under high-emissions scenarios. Models failing to resolve these trophodynamic patterns may significantly underestimate regional fisheries catch trends and hinder adaptation to climate change.

Climate, Anchovy, and Sardine

Anchovy and sardine populated productive ocean regions over hundreds of thousands of years under a naturally varying climate, and are now subject to climate change of equal or greater magnitude occurring over decades to centuries. We hypothesize that anchovy and sardine populations are limited in size by the supply of nitrogen from outside their habitats originating from upwelling, mixing, and rivers. Projections of the responses of anchovy and sardine to climate change rely on a range of model types and consideration of the effects of climate on lower trophic levels, the effects of fishing on higher trophic levels, and the traits of these two types of fish. Distribution, phenology, nutrient supply, plankton composition and production, habitat compression, fishing, and acclimation and adaptation may be affected by ocean warming, acidification, deoxygenation, and altered hydrology. Observations of populations and evaluation of model skill are essential to resolve the effects of climate change on these fish.