Refik Erzan

Immigration Scenarios: Turkey–EU

Abstract This is an econometric study aimed at estimating the eventual immigration from Turkey to the EU when Turkey becomes a full member and restrictions on labor mobility are removed. The findings suggest that a successful accession period with high growth reduces and gradually eliminates the migration pressures. The study warns that lower growth and higher unemployment associated with a suspension in Turkey’s accession process may produce more immigrants than a successful membership.

Does size matter in growth, productivity, employment and vulnerability/flexibility in Turkish manufacturing?

This study analyzes growth, employment and productivity in the Turkish manufacturing industry with respect to industry and size, and scrutinizes the sensitivity of firms—with respect to the economic environment—depending on firm size. Panel data techniques are used in the analyses.

The Social Dimension in Selected Candidate Countries in the Balkans: Country Report on Turkey

The European Commission awarded a contract in November 2005 to a consortium composed of the TARKI Social Research Institute (Hungary), CASE, Center for Social and Economic Research (Poland) and CEPS to analyse the socio-economic developments and the process of structural reforms in what were then four candidate countries: Bulgaria, Croatia, Romania and Turkey. The objective was to identify the major challenges in the current demographic, social and economic context that could be considered relevant in determining the capacity of these countries to function in the European Union. This study presents the findings for Turkey and consists of an analytical section and a statistical annex. The other country reports and synthesis report are published separately in this same series

Tariff valuation bases and trade among developing countries : do developing countries discriminate against their own trade?

In establishing the value of imports for tariff assessment, most countries apply duties either to the cost-insurance-freight (c.i.f.) or the free-on-board (f.o.b.) value of the traded good. One effect of using the far more common c.i.f. base is to place a disproportinate burden on countries that have higher freight and insurance costs. Distant countries often not only pay higher transport costs, but are further penalized by disproportionate tariff costs that worsen their competitive disadvantage. The f.o.b. valuation procedure does not penalize exporters for their location, but applies a nominal tariff rate directly to the export costs of each country. Using cost information for six Latin American countries, this paper examines the influence of the two procedures on the level and incidence of tariff protection. It concludes that transport and insurance costs generally put developing countries at a disadvantage (compared to developed countries) on interregional trade and that the relatively high Latin American tariffs on c.i.f. prices further worsen their competitive position. To correct the bias against trade between developing countries, it is recommended that f.o.b. valuation procedures used by developed countries be adopted. This change would also reduce tariff barriers considerably.

Regionalism and globalization in the context of Euro‐Mediterranean agreements

Regionalism can be used as a stepping stone towards more global or multilateral relations. The world has changed and it would seem that globalization is the new reality. The great expansion of fore...