Reginald Blake

Chapter 3: climate observations and projections.

Climate change is extremely likely (see Fig. 3.1 for definitions of uncertainty terms and Box 3.1 for additional definitions) to bring warmer temperatures to New York City and the surrounding region (see CRI, Appendix A, for further information on all the material presented in this chapter). Heat waves are very likely to become more frequent, intense, and longer in duration. Total annual precipitation will more likely than not increase, and brief, intense rainstorms are also likely to increase, with concomitant flooding. Toward the end of the 21st century, it is more likely than not that droughts will become more severe. Additionally, rising sea levels are extremely likely, and are very likely to lead to more frequent and damaging flooding related to coastal storm events in the future. The treatment of likelihood related to the New York City Panel on Climate Change (NPCC) climate change projections is similar to that developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC AR4, 2007), with six likelihood categories. The assignment of climate hazards to these categories is based on global climate simulations, published literature, and expert judgment.

New York City Panel on Climate Change 2015 ReportChapter 1: Climate Observations and Projections

Radley Horton,1,a Daniel Bader,1,a Yochanan Kushnir,2 Christopher Little,3 Reginald Blake,4 and Cynthia Rosenzweig5 1Columbia University Center for Climate Systems Research, New York, NY. 2Ocean and Climate Physics Department, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, Palisades, NY. 3Atmospheric and Environmental Research, Lexington, MA. 4Physics Department, New York City College of Technology, CUNY, Brooklyn, NY. 5Climate Impacts Group, NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies; Center for Climate Systems Research, Columbia University Earth Institute, New York, NY

Chapter 7: Indicators and monitoring

A popular paradigm states: What cannot be measured cannot be managed. The programmatic and practical objectives of the city and members of the New York City Climate Change Adaptation Task Force are to develop Flexible Adaptation Pathways for the region’s critical infrastructure. These objectives will require ongoing and consistent monitoring of a set of climate change indicators. Monitoring of key indicators can help to initiate course corrections in adaptation policies and/or changes in timing of their implementation. The relevant indicators are related to changes in the climate, climate science, climate impacts, and adaptation activities. Thus, these indicators need to be devised and tracked over time to provide targeted quantitative measures of climate change impacts, and adaptation in order to provide useful information to decision makers in regard to timing and extent of adaptation actions.

Global Land Surface Emissivity Estimation From AMSR2 Observations

A reliable estimate of emissivity is critical for a wide range of applications for the atmosphere, the biosphere, the lithosphere, the cryosphere, and the hydrosphere. This study uses three years (August 2012 to July 2015) of data from the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer-2 sensor that is onboard the Global Change Observation Mission 1st Water satellite to explore estimates of instantaneous global land emissivity. A method is adopted to remove the known inconsistency in penetration depths between microwave brightness temperatures and infrared-based ancillary data that could cause differences between day and night emissivity estimates. After removing the diurnal atmospheric effects, the resulting retrieved cloud-free land emissivities realistically represent well-known large-scale features. As expected, the polarization differences of estimated emissivities show noticeable seasonal variations over the deciduous woodland and grassland regions due to changes in vegetation density. The potential of estimated emissivities for high-latitude snow detection and freeze/thaw state identification is also demonstrated.

Engaging Undergraduates in the New York City S-SAFE Internship Program: An Impetus to Raise Geoscience Awareness.

ABSTRACT To engender and raise awareness to the geosciences, a geoscience research project and a corresponding geoscience internship program were designed around plume dispersion dynamics within and above the New York City subway system. Federal, regional, and local agencies partnered with undergraduate students from minority-serving institutions to conduct the largest plume dispersion study ever done in a complex, dense, urban-coastal metropolis. The students were engaged in an array of geoscience activities within the confines of geoscience learning communities. Assessment results indicate that the geoscience exposure and experience helped to stimulate and proliferate geoscience awareness and knowledge among the undergraduates.

An Effective Model for Enhancing Underrepresented Minority Participation and Success in Geoscience Undergraduate Research

ABSTRACT Geoscience research is a fundamental portal through which geoscience knowledge may be acquired and disseminated. A viable model to introduce, stimulate, and prolong geoscience education has been designed and implemented at the New York City College of Technology through a National Science Foundation (NSF) Research Experiences for Undergraduates (REU) program in satellite and ground-based remote sensing that targets underrepresented minority students. The program is composed of three primary components: Structured Learning Environments: Preparation and Mentorship, Student Support and Safety Nets, and Vision and Impetus for Advancement. The first component, Structured Learning Environments: Preparation and Mentorship, places REU scholars within a research team and provides them with the skill sets necessary for proficiency in satellite and ground-based remote sensing research. The second component, Student Support and Safety Nets, provides a structured and holistic learning environment that supports the undergraduates in becoming successful researchers and scholars. The last component, Vision and Impetus for Advancement, exposes the REU scholars to geoscience in a wider context and inspires them to envision themselves as the geoscientists and the science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM) workforce professionals of the 21st century. Since the inception of this NSF REU program in 2008, 47 undergraduate students—39 (83.0%) of whom are underrepresented minorities in STEM (including women)—have completed geoscience research or are engaged in geoscience or STEM careers.

New York City Panel on Climate Change 2015 Report Chapter 6: Indicators and Monitoring

William Solecki,1,a Cynthia Rosenzweig,2,a Reginald Blake,3,a Alex de Sherbinin,4 Tom Matte,5 Fred Moshary,6 Bernice Rosenzweig,7 Mark Arend,6 Stuart Gaffin,8 Elie Bou-Zeid,9 Keith Rule,10 Geraldine Sweeny,11 and Wendy Dessy11 1City University of New York, CUNY Institute for Sustainable Cities, New York, NY. 2Climate Impacts Group, NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, Center for Climate Systems Research, Columbia University Earth Institute, New York, NY. 3Physics Department, New York City College of Technology, CUNY, Brooklyn, NY; Climate Impacts Group, NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies. 4 Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN), Columbia University, Palisades, NY. 5New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene, New York, NY. 6NOAA CREST, City College of New York, CUNY, New York, NY. 7CUNY Environmental Crossroads, City College of New York, CUNY, New York, NY. 8Center for Climate Systems Research, Columbia University Earth Institute, New York, NY. 9Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ. 10Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ. 11New York City Mayor’s Office of Operation, New York, NY

Estimation of Consistent Global Microwave Land Surface Emissivity from AMSR-E and AMSR2 Observations

AbstractAccurate estimation of passive microwave land surface emissivity (LSE) is crucial for numerical weather prediction model data assimilation, for microwave retrievals of land precipitation and atmospheric profiles, and for a better understanding of land surface and subsurface characteristics. In this study, global instantaneous LSE is estimated for a 9-yr period from the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for Earth Observing System (AMSR-E) and for a 5-yr period from the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer 2 (AMSR2) sensors. Estimates of LSE from both sensors were obtained by using an updated algorithm that minimizes the discrepancy between the differences in penetration depths from microwave and infrared remote sensing observations. Concurrent ancillary datasets such as skin temperature from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and profiles of air temperature and humidity from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder are used. The latest collection 6 of MODIS skin temperature is...

Potential of satellite-based land emissivity estimates for the detection of high-latitude freeze and thaw states

Reliable detection of freeze and thaw (FT) states is crucial for the terrestrial water cycle, biogeochemical transitions, carbon and methane feedback to the atmosphere, and for the surface energy budget and its associated impacts on the global climate system. This paper is novel in that for the first time a unique approach to examine the potential of passive microwave remotely sensed land emissivity and its added values of being free from the atmospheric effects and being sensitive to surface characteristics is being applied to the detection of FT states for latitudes north of 35°N. Since accurate characterizations of the soil state are highly dependent on land cover types, a novel threshold-based approach specific to different land cover types is proposed for daily FT detection from the use of 3 years (August 2012 to July 2015) of the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer-2 land emissivity estimates. Ground-based soil temperature observations are used as reference to develop threshold values for FT states. Preliminary evaluation of the proposed approach with independent ground observations over Alaska for the year 2015 shows that the use of land emissivity estimates for high-latitude FT detection is promising.

Assessment of Langley and NASA-GISS Calibration Techniques for MFRSR Aerosol Retrieval

Sun photometric measurements are an important method of measuring the column amount and optical properties of atmospheric aerosols and are frequently used to better understand the impact of aerosols on the Earths radiative budget. This paper assesses two calibration techniques used for multifilter rotating shadowband radiometers (MFRSRs) and presents the results obtained at Long Island, NY, during the July 2011 Aerosol Life Cycle Intensive Operational Period (IOP) campaign. The instrument calibration constants are validated internally against each other and against an independent quantitative technique based on the solar irradiance at the top of the atmosphere, convolved with the MFRSR filter response. In addition, the aerosol optical parameters obtained from the MFRSR are assessed against the same parameters retrieved with a recently calibrated CIMEL sun/sky radiometer collocated with the MFRSR instrument. These comparisons indicate generally good agreement between the two instruments for both calibration techniques. The advantages and disadvantages of the two techniques are presented. Additionally, an analysis of the optical and physical properties of aerosols from the MFRSR and their chemical compositions obtained by an in situ high-resolution time-of-flight aerosol mass spectrometer, together with back trajectories, indicate that the principal source of high concentrations of fine aerosols observed during July 18-24 was forest fires in western Canada.