Reinhard Madlener

Sustainable energy futures: Methodological challenges in combining scenarios and participatory multi-criteria analysis

This paper analyses the combined use of scenario building and participatory multi-criteria analysis (PMCA) in the context of renewable energy from a methodological point of view. Scenarios have been applied increasingly in decision-making about long-term consequences by projecting different possible pathways into the future. Scenario analysis accounts for a higher degree of complexity inherent in systems than the study of individual projects or technologies. MCA is a widely used appraisal method, which assesses options on the basis of a multi-dimensional criteria framework and calculates rankings of options. In our study, five renewable energy scenarios for Austria for 2020 were appraised against 17 sustainability criteria. A similar process was undertaken on the local level, where four renewable energy scenarios were developed and evaluated against 15 criteria. On both levels, the scenario development consisted of two stages: first an exploratory stage with stakeholder engagement and second a modelling stage with forecasting-type scenarios. Thus, the scenarios consist of a narrative part (storyline) and a modeled quantitative part. The preferences of national and local energy stakeholders were included in the form of criteria weights derived from interviews and participatory group processes, respectively. Especially in the case of renewable energy promotion in Austria, the paper systematically analyses the potentials and limitations of the methodology (1) for capturing the complexity of decision-making about the long-term consequences of changes in socio-economic and biophysical systems and (2) for appraising energy futures. The paper concludes that assessing scenarios with PMCA is resource intense, but this methodology captures successfully the context of technology deployment and allows decision-making based on a robust and democratic process, which addresses uncertainties, acknowledges multiple legitimate perspectives and encourages social learning.

How to promote renewable energy systems successfully and effectively

This paper summarises the major recommendations and conclusions of the third Forum of the European Network on Energy Research (ENER) which took place in June 2002 in Budapest. The major perceptions of this meeting as well as the most important conclusions and recommendations for energy policy makers are compiled in this summary. The statements compiled in the following represent a consensus within the ENER Network while on some questions differences in perception and analysis persisted.

Consumer preferences for alternative fuel vehicles: A discrete choice analysis

In this paper we analyze the potential demand for privately used alternative fuel vehicles (AFVs), based on a nationwide survey in Germany among (potential) car buyers. For this purpose, we applied a stated preference discrete choice experiment, using a wide range of vehicle alternatives (gasoline/diesel, natural gas, hybrid, plug-in hybrid, electric, biofuel, hydrogen) and vehicle attributes. By applying both a multinomial logit model and a mixed (error components) logit model, we estimate the attributes’ influence on vehicle choice and calculate consumers’ willingness-to-pay for the improvement of these attributes. Furthermore, in a scenario analysis, we simulate the impact of monetary and non-monetary policy measures on vehicle choice probabilities. We find that the most promising target group for the adoption of all kinds of AFVs is that of younger, well-educated, and environmentally aware car buyers, who, in the case of electric vehicles, also have the possibility to plug-in their car at home, and who have a high share of city trips and thus need a small car. Moreover, we find that, depending on the vehicle alternative, environmental awareness, and budget constraints for the next vehicle purchase, households are willing to pay substantial amounts for the improvement of fuel cost, driving range, charging infrastructure, CO2 emissions, vehicle tax exemptions, and free parking or bus lane access. Furthermore, the scenario results suggest that conventional vehicles will maintain their dominance in the market, whereas electric and hydrogen vehicles will remain unpopular. The market share of the latter is only expected to rise markedly if massive and multiple policy interventions are implemented. Finally, we find evidence that an increase in the fully electric vehicle’s driving range to a level comparable with all other vehicle alternatives has the same impact on its choice probability as would a market-based, multiple measures policy intervention package.

Centralized and Integrated Decentralized Compressed Air Energy Storage for Enhanced Grid Integration of Wind Power

In this paper, we model the economic feasibility of compressed air energy storage (CAES) to improve wind power integration. The Base Case is a wind park with 100 MW of installed capacity and no storage facility. In Variant 1 we add a central CAES system with 90 MW of compressor and 180 MW of generation capacity. The compressed air is stored in a cavern. The CAES system is operated independently of the wind park such that profits from peak power sales at the spot market and reserve power market are maximized. Variant 2 is an integrated, decentralized CAES system, where each wind turbine is equipped with a compressor but no generator. The compressed air is stored in a cavern and converted into electricity by a turbine, again maximizing profit as a peak power plant. Both variants are modeled for conventional diabatic and the more advanced adiabatic systems.

Development Trends and Economics of Innovative Solar Power Generation Technologies: A Comparative Analysis

In this paper we compare development trends, economics and financial risks of alternative large-scale solar power generation technologies (parabolic trough, solar tower, and three different photovoltaic technologies). In particular, a number of European countries, Algeria and the US promote solar power generation. In oure study, we investigate the economic viability of the solar trough projects Andasol-I (Spain), Nevada Solar One (US), the solar tower projects PS-10 and Solar Tres (Spain), and the three PV projects Solarpark Waldpolenz (Germany), Parque Solar Beneixama (Spain) and Nellis Solar Power Plant (US). To this end, we employ a battery of economic indicators, such as net present value (NPV), return on investment (ROI), alternative discount rate (ADR), and amortization time (Ta), and also perform a detailed sensitivity analysis. We find that, in the absence of subsidization, current solar technologies cannot compete with conventional power plant technologies. Overall, we conclude that for realizing the Europe-Middle East-North Africa (EUMENA) Mediterranean ring connection, more research and development is needed on solar power generation technologies for making them sufficiently attractive on economic grounds.

Renewable energy policy in the presence of innovation: does government pre-commitment matter?

In a perfectly competitive market with a possibility of technological innovation we contrast guaranteed feed-in tariffs for electricity from renewables and tradable green certificates from a dynamic efficiency and social welfare point of view. Specifically, we model decisions about the technological innovation with convex costs within the framework of a game-theoretic model, and discuss implications for optimal policy design under different assumptions regarding regulatory pre-commitment. We find that for the case of technological innovation with convex costs subsidy policies are preferable over quota-based policies. Further, in terms of dynamic efficiency, no pre-commitment policies are shown to be at least as good as the pre-commitment ones. Thus, a government with a preference for innovation being performed if the achievable cost reduction is high should be in favor of the no pre-commitment regime.

Assessing the performance of biogas plants with multi-criteria and data envelopment analysis

This paper performs an assessment of 41 agricultural biogas plants located in Austria to determine their relative performance in terms of economic, environmental, and social criteria and corresponding indicators. The comparison of these renewable energy conversion plants is based on two complementary analyses. Data envelopment analysis (DEA) was conducted to provide measures of radial efficiency relative to the observed frontier of production possibilities. Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA), using the IRIS/ELECTRE TRI methodology, was conducted to obtain a different perspective on the results, and as a tool that would enable to incorporate managerial preferences easily. To be able to use IRIS while keeping the spirit behind DEA, the evaluation criteria were defined as different output/input efficiency ratios, and no information about criteria weights was introduced at the outset. The results suggest that MCDA, and the use of IRIS in particular, constitutes a useful approach that can be applied in a complementary way to DEA.

Assessment of the Technological Development and Economic Potential of Photobioreactors

In this paper, we investigate the development and economic potential of the photobioreactor (PBR) technology for energy purposes, i.e. production of hydrogen or biofuels. The approach adopted is to consider the technology, its expected costs and revenues, and related risks from an investor perspective. To this end we develop an investment model that is used to calculate the economic feasibility of PBRs for different scenarios, including a best-case scenario, with plenty of sunlight and water, inexpensive nutrients, high prices for hydrogen and biomass, and low other costs. The best-case scenario is compared to a scenario with less favorable boundary conditions. We find that PBR efficiencies will likely be less than 10%, with typical values between 1.8% and 5.6%. We also find that hydrogen production costs would be lower than those for biodiesel or biogas from solid biomass produced in PBRs. Compared to biofuels from traditional agriculture there is a great advantage for the PBR technology if land is scarce, because land is used more efficiently. Since PBRs can be designed as a closed system they can be applied in very dry regions. In the long term this might enable this promising concept to penetrate the energy supply market.

Power Plant Investments in the Turkish Electricity Sector: A Real Options Approach Taking into Account Market Liberalization

In this paper we study the economic feasibility of constructing a 560 MW coal-fired power plant in Turkey, using real options theory [1]. We start from a short review of the Turkish electricity market as well as the literature on real options theory and power plant investment. We then investigate the peculiarities and uncertainties related to large-scale power generation. Our special research focus is on the determination of the real options value of the sequential nature of the power plant project considered. To this end, we develop a sequential investment model based on the binomial tree model of Cox, Ross and Rubinstein [2]. The four stages considered are (1) initial project development; (2) detailed planning and permitting; (3) first major project payments; and (4) release of final order. We find that especially for the strategic planning of projects the application of the real options analysis (ROA) can be very useful. The relatively high option value compared to the net present value (NPV) of the project makes clear that the flexibilities of reacting during project realization, depending on the market developments, can be assigned an immense value. A further advantage of the ROA for a staged or sequential investment lies in the fact that it also delivers, besides the option value of the investment, the optimal strategy for exercising the option (i.e. if and when to invest). The revelation of action possibilities and their examination sheds new light on the conventional calculation of the NPV of such projects.

Economic Evaluation of IGCC Plants with Hot Gas Cleaning

This paper investigates whether coal- or biomass-fired Integrated Gasification Combined-Cycle (IGCC) power plants can serve as an economically viable future technology for providing clean electricity and heat in Germany. In the context of CO2 emission reduction in power generation, energy conversion technologies that enable the implementation of Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) need to be considered. IGCC is one such technology, as it utilizes coal or biomass but does not necessarily emit CO2. We therefore investigate whether IGCC plants can, from an economic perspective, be an alternative to nuclear and/or conventional coal-fired power plants. Our research is undertaken with the help of scenario analysis. The possible shut-down of nuclear power stations as well as of outdated coal-fired power plants, together with the evolution of CO2 prices, provides the starting point of our study. The option of hot gas cleaning in IGCC plants is of particular interest, as it is expected to significantly enhance the efficiency of IGCC technology and allows for combined heat and power production (CHP). Corresponding supplementary earnings (incl. subsidies) are compared with an increase in specific investment costs. Besides the hot gas cleaning advancement, we also investigate the injection of pure CO2 (separated from the IGCC process) into oilfields, as it reduces the costs of CO2 transport and storage through Enhanced Oil Recovery (EOR). Based on the results, a judgement on the ability of IGCC technology to replace nuclear power stations and/or conventional coal-fired power plants in Germany is made. Net present values calculated provide decision-support for energy suppliers about the if and when to invest in IGCC plants. We find that only a partial substitution of current power plants by IGCC facilities is reasonable, e.g. for locational reasons, whereas a complete abandonment of IGCC technology seems to be unlikely from the current point of view.