Giovanni Sorda

Cost-Effectiveness of Lignocellulose Biorefineries and their Impact on the Deciduous Wood Markets in Germany

Biorefineries, especially if based on woody biomass, may cause significant changes to the forest and wood-based industry. The resulting changes may, in turn, affect the economic feasibility of lignocellulosic biofuels production. In this article, we introduce a spatial partial equilibrium model of the forest and wood processing industries in Germany. The wood market model is linked to the Reaction Network Flux Analysis (RNFA), a model for the systematic selection of reaction pathways in the preliminary evaluation of the mass balance of innovative biofuel components. In doing so, we can simulate the impact of wood-based biorefineries on their feedstock markets and also assess the economic feasibility of the proposed production process. In a case study based on the transformation of beech wood to methyltetrahydrofuran (MTHF), a potential biofuel component currently under development, we show how the net present value of lignocellulosic biorefineries of various sizes is completely reversed once the wood market’s response to the entry of a new high-volume consumer is taken into account.

A Spatial MAS Simulation to Evaluate the Promotion of Electricity from Agricultural Biogas Plants in Germany

In this paper we investigate how changes in the support scheme may affect electricity generation from agricultural Combined Heat and Power (CHP) biogas plants in Germany. A recursive Multi-Agent System (MAS) for investment decision-making is coupled with GIS data. The spatial-temporal diffusion model accounts for the limited availability of substrate resources, alternative plant sizes and different heat use combinations. For illustration, we apply the model to the German federal states of North Rhine-Westphalia and Bavaria, for which we estimate an additional economic capacity potential of 409 MWel. Overall, we conclude that current feed-in payments per unit of electric power provided are probably not too far off the optimum level, if one considers the maximum diffusion of CHP units possible. However, the current feed-in system may overtly favor small generating units, thereby failing to incentivize coordination among farmers for joint resource use in larger and more efficient plants. In addition, optimization of the biogas conversion process and feedstock use would also be highly beneficial.

Integration of market dynamics into the design of biofuel processes

Abstract Wood is considered one of the main future feedstocks in the production of second generation biofuels in Europe. While feedstock cost has a major impact on production cost, wood prices are expected to change significantly once biorefineries enter the raw material market as new high volume consumers. Therefore, wood market dynamics and approximate price forecasting should be integrated into decision-making during the design phase. In this contribution we show how such an integration could be realized by combining a preliminary process model to determine the raw material demand and a spatial partial equilibrium model of the wood market to predict the price development. This approach is illustrated on a case study examining the production of 2-methyltetrahydrofuran (MTHF) as a novel biofuel component, which is converted from deciduous wood grown in Germany.

Intensivere Holzenergienutzung in Europa: Politik- und Forschungsaspekte

Increased use of wood energy in Europe: policy and research issues The contrasting and often conflicting objectives associated with the increased use of bioenergy resources pose significant political and regulatory challenges across Europe. In the EU, wood energy use is not regulated in a dedicated directive, but is part of a variety of directives with different foci, and the individual EU member states implement these directives in very different ways. The challenges lie, on the one hand, in the harmonization of policies, standards and regulation and, on the other hand, in measures for efficiency improvements and minimization of adverse side effects of wood energy use. In this paper, the current EU bioenergy and wood energy legislative framework and specific policies are presented and current research themes in the context of the European wood energy policy highlighted, with a special emphasis on cascadic use of wood resources. It can be concluded that sustainable material and energy use of wood is subje...

The Impact of Domestic and Global Biofuel Mandates on the German Agricultural Sector

The aim of this work is to evaluate the impact of domestic and global biofuel policies on Germanys agricultural sector. The central part of our study is divided into four sections. Section 2 presents in detail the issues that make biofuels a debated topic in todays economic policies. Fundamental aspects of our energy consumption patterns and the geographic location of our natural resources are highlighted together with a quantitative analysis of the recent surge in biofuels output capacity and estimates of their near-future deployment. An introduction to current and future biofuels production technologies is coupled with an overview of recent studies that assess their net contribution to harmful gaseous emissions and energy efficiency. The concerns associated with rising food prices and their likely causes are then briefly examined. Section 3 provides a thorough description of the subsidy, taxation and protection measures granted to biofuels across the world. Current governmental policies in the EU and its member states are given special attention. Section 4 presents the current literature on economic modelling and focuses on partial equilibrium (AGLINK-COSIMO, Impact, Esim, etc.) and general equilibrium frameworks (EPPA, GTAP, etc.). Section 5 simulates the impact of domestic and global biofuel policies in Germany within a Computable General Equilibrium framework. The LEITAP model is introduced. A description of the analysed scenarios is given on the basis of the envisaged biofuel blending mandates described in section 3. The simulation results are then evaluated with respect to production, prices, international trade and land use of the relevant commodities. The outcome clearly indicates that current biofuels policies significantly affect food markets as well as land allocation. The conclusion summarizes the main findings of our study and draws a comparison with results of other publications.