Reinhold Kosfeld

Abgrenzung deutscher Arbeitsmarktregionen

KurzfassungFunktional abgegrenzte Räume wie Arbeitsmarktregionen werden u.a. für regionalökonomische Analysen benötigt. In Abhängigkeit der Definition von Wirtschaftsräumen können Regionen als „wohlhabend” oder „arm” erscheinen. Aber auch weitere statistische Gründe sprechen für die Verwendung von Arbeitsmarktregionen. Die für Deutschland vorliegenden Abgrenzungen von Funktionalräumen basieren noch auf Datenmaterial aus den 1980er und 90er Jahren. Insofern ist eine Neuabgrenzung geboten. Die Autoren setzen dazu eine Faktorenanalyse mit schiefwinkliger Rotation ein und erhalten 150 Arbeitsmarktregionen, die sich aus einem oder mehreren Kreisen zusammensetzen. Diese Arbeitsmärkte erfüllen das Kriterium der zumutbaren Pendelzeit (max. 45 bis 60 Minuten in Abhängigkeit der Attraktivität des Zentrums) und weisen eine Größe von mehr als 50 000 Einwohnern auf.AbstractFunctional delineated labour market regions are needed for regional economic analyses. In dependence of the definition of regions economic regions in space can be seen as “rich” or “poor” areas. In addition to this statistical and econometric reasons argue for using functional labour market regions. The available definitions of functional units are based mostly on data from 1980s and 1990s. To that extent a new delineation is required. The authors use a factor analysis with an oblique rotation and receive 150 labour market regions, which consist of one or more administrative units (Kreise). These labour markets regions fulfil the criterion of reasonable commuting time (maximally 45 to 60 minutes in dependence of the attractiveness of the centre). They have a size of more than 50,000 inhabitants.

Regional convergence in Germany: A geographically weighted regression approach

Abstract Regional convergence of German labour markets represents a politically important question. Different studies have examined convergence processes in Germany. We derive equations to estimate the speed of convergence on the basis of an extended Solow model. The technique of geographically weighted regression permits a detailed analysis of convergence processes, which has not been conducted for Germany as yet. It allows the estimation of a separate speed of convergence for every region resulting from the local coefficients of the regression equations. The application of this technique to German labour market regions shows regions moving at different speeds towards their steady states. The half-life periods in the model of conditional convergence disperse less than the same coefficients in the absolute convergence model. Moreover, the speed of convergence is substantially slower in the manufacturing sector than in the service sector.

Dynamic Spatial Modelling of Regional Convergence Processes

Econometric analysis of convergence processes across countries or regions usually refers to a transition period between an arbitrary chosen starting year and a fictitious steady state. Panel unit root tests and panel cointegration techniques have proved to belong to powerful econometric tools if the conditions are met. When referring to economically defined regions, though, it is rather an exception than the rule that coherent time series are available. For this case we introduce a dynamic spatial modelling approach which is suitable to trace regional adjustment processes in space instead of time. It is shown how the spatial error-correction mechanism (SEC model) can be estimated depending on the spatial stationarity properties of the variables under investigation. The dynamic spatial modelling approach presented in this paper is applied to the issue of conditional income and productivity convergence across labour market regions in unified Germany.

Spatial cointegration and heteroscedasticity

A two-step Lagrange Multiplier test strategy has recently been suggested as a tool to reveal spatial cointegration. The present paper generalises the test procedure by incorporating control for unobserved heteroscedasticity. Using Monte Carlo simulation, the behaviour of several relevant tests for spatial cointegration and/or heteroscedasticity is investigated. The two-step test for spatial cointegration appears to be robust towards heteroscedasticity. While several tests for heteroscedasticity prove to be inconclusive under certain circumstances, a Lagrange Multiplier test for heteroscedasticity based on spatially differenced variables is shown to serve well as an indication of heteroscedasticity irrespective of cointegration status.

Ökonomische Effekte erneuerbarer Energien auf regionaler Ebene

ZusammenfassungFür die Akzeptanz von Anlagen zur Erzeugung von Strom aus erneuerbaren Energien in der Bevölkerung und damit als Entscheidungsdimension der Kommunalpolitik sind neben den ökologischen Effekten einer CO2-Reduktion vor allem die ökonomischen Vorteile von Relevanz. Hierbei rücken die potenziellen regionalen Wertschöpfungseffekte in den Blickpunkt des Interesses. Je größer der Wertschöpfungseffekt einer erneuerbaren Energie ist, umso nachhaltiger ist ihr Beitrag zur Regionalentwicklung, wodurch sich insbesondere auch in strukturschwachen ländlichen Räumen völlig neue Perspektiven ergeben. Ziel dieses Aufsatzes ist die Quantifizierung dieser Wertschöpfungseffekte durch die Stromerzeugung aus Wind, Wasser, Sonne und Biogas für vier Modellregionen in Deutschland: Trier, Hannover, Friesland und Nordschwarzwald. Hierfür wird ein Verfahren entwickelt, das nicht nur Rückschlüsse auf die direkten Wertschöpfungseffekte zulässt, sondern auch indirekte und einkommensinduzierte Reaktionen einschließt. Dabei werden auch die regionalen Besonderheiten berücksichtigt, die vor allem in unterschiedlichen Energieerträgen und Anlagengrößen, aber auch in der differierenden Bedeutung der Importe liegen. Der Untersuchungsfokus liegt dabei auf der Betriebsphase der Energieanlagen. Es wird deutlich, dass die Effekte zwischen den einzelnen Energiearten, aber auch zwischen den einzelnen Regionen stark differieren.AbstractDoubtlessly the ecological effects of renewable energies play an important role for the acceptance in the population, but local politicians need to introduce the economic benefits in the public debate as well. In particular a potential gain in regional value added through local production of renewable energy becomes the focus of attention for urban and rural communities. This study aims at quantifying these economic effects arising from the energy production through wind, sun, water and biogas for four German model regions: Trier, Hannover, Friesland and Nordschwarzwald. Especially the value added during the operating phase of a renewable energy production facility is of interest here. A procedure was developed accounting for direct and indirect effects on the value added. But also so called induced effects are considered generated through the partly spending of the additional incomes (direct and indirect). The main results show, that the average net value added differs widely between the various kinds of energy sources, but also within one energy source there are differences between the four model regions.

Robust exploratory factor analysis

In classical factor analysis, a few outliers can bias the factor structure extracted from the relationship between manifest variables. As in least-squares regression analysis there is no protection against deviant observations. This paper discusses estimation methods which aim to extract the “true” factor structure reflecting the relationships within the bulk of the data. Such estimation methods constitute the core of robust factor analysis. By means of a simulation study, we illustrate that an implementation of robust estimation methods can lend considerable improvement to the validity of a factor analysis.

Do Regional Price Levels Converge

Summary We investigate price level convergence on the base of regional data for 439 German districts. Prices refer to the overall consumer price index as well as to the index without housing prices. To increase the efficiency of the testing framework, the analysis is based on panel unit root tests. First and second generation tests are applied. They indicate a lack of regional price convergence, as the null hypothesis of a unit root is usually not rejected. The second generation tests reveal that the source of the unit root is likely common for all regions. The results are very similar for the overall regional price level and the measure without housing prices, and for the Western and Eastern part of the German economy. The elimination of housing prices is not sufficient to obtain a price index where tradables dominate. One rationale of our findings is the persistent west-east divide in consumer prices. A second argument is related to the persistence of the price gradient between urban and rural regions.

Spurious spatial regression and heteroscedasticity

A two-step Lagrange Multiplier test strategy has recently been suggested as a device to reveal spatial nonstationarity and spurious spatial regression. The present paper generalises this procedure by incorporating control for unobserved heteroscedasticity. Using Monte Carlo simulation, the behaviour of several relevant tests for nonstationarity and/or heteroscedasticity is investigated. The two-step Lagrange Multiplier test for spatial nonstationarity turns out to be robust towards heteroscedasticity. While several tests for heteroscedasticity prove inconclusive under certain circumstances, it is shown that a Lagrange Multiplier test for heteroscedasticity based on spatially differenced variables serves well as an indication of heteroscedasticity irrespective of stationarity status.

Pendelbereitschaft von Arbeitnehmern in Deutschland

ZusammenfassungEine Analyse des Pendlerverhaltens ist angesichts der in vielen deutschen Regionen angespannten Arbeitsmarktlage von hoher Aktualität. Dennoch liegen für Gesamtdeutschland keine neueren Untersuchungen zu dieser Thematik vor. Mit Hilfe von Daten der Bundesagentur für Arbeit für alle sozialversicherungspflichtig Beschäftigten werden Gravitationsmodelle geschätzt. Die Berechnungen weisen die Pendelneigung der Beschäftigten insgesamt sowie soziodemographischer Untergruppen aus. Festzustellen ist, dass Männer bei zunehmender Distanz eher zum Pendeln bereit sind als Frauen, Deutsche eine höhere Pendelneigung besitzen als Ausländer und Arbeiter eine höhere als Angestellte. Eine lokale Analyse zeigt, dass bei ostdeutschen Regionen ein überdurchschnittlicher Pendelwiderstand zu verzeichnen ist, der mit tendenziell unattraktiveren Arbeitsplätzen erklärt werden kann. Bei wirtschaftlich prosperierenden Metropolen in Westdeutschland sind Arbeitnehmer auch bereit, längere Fahrtzeiten in Kauf zu nehmen.AbstractAn analysis of the commuter behaviour is an important question because of the high unemployment rate in many German regions. However, there are no actual investigations for the whole country. We use data of the Federal Employment Office (Bundesagentur für Arbeit), which include all national insurance contributors, to estimate gravity models. These calculations show the willingness to travel from home to work for all employed persons as well as for sociodemographic subgroups. It can be stated that men are more prepared to commute than women if the distance is increasing, that Germans are more willing to commute than foreigners and that workers have a greater commuting resistance than other employees. A local analysis shows that the influence of distance on commuting is higher in East German regions than in West Germany. One reason for that result may be the lower wages in East Germany. Employees accept longer driving times to work in economically prosperous regions in West Germany.

Regional Spillovers and Spatial Heterogeneity in Matching Workers and Employers in Germany

Summary When job search takes place across labour markets, the standard flow approach to labour market analysis fails to uncover the effectiveness at which workers are matched to available jobs. A spatially augmented matching function is backed by a spatial search model with endogenous search intensity. Recent studies deal with the issue of spatial externalities by assuming the process of job matching to be homogenous across space. This study shows that this supposition is not valid for the unified Germany. Particularly differences in labour mobility give reason for the existence of West-East regimes of the matching process. Spatial heterogeneity is additionally found on the level of German macroregions. Though matching efficiency is affected by labour market characteristics, its cyclical pattern is closely related to business cycle fluctuations. Variation of regional mismatch over the business cycle can only explain a relatively small fraction of matching efficiency.