Reshma Kassanjee

Independent assessment of candidate HIV incidence assays on specimens in the CEPHIA repository

Objective:Cross-sectional HIV incidence surveillance, using assays that distinguish ‘recent’ from ‘nonrecent’ infections, has been hampered by inadequate performance and characterization of incidence assays. In this study, the Consortium for the Evaluation and Performance of HIV Incidence Assays presents results of the first independent evaluation of five incidence assays (BED, Limiting Antigen Avidity, Less-sensitive Vitros, Vitros Avidity and BioRad Avidity). Design:A large repository of diverse specimens from HIV-positive patients was established, multiple assays were run on 2500 selected specimens, and data were analyzed to estimate assay characteristics relevant for incidence surveillance. Methods:The mean duration of recent infection (MDRI, average time ‘recent’ while infected for less than some time cut-off T) was estimated from longitudinal data on seroconverters by regression. The false-recent rate (FRR, probability of testing ‘recent’ when infected for longer than T) was explored by measuring the proportions of ‘recent’ results in various subsets of patients. Results:Assays continue to fail to attain the simultaneously large MDRI and small FRR demanded by existing performance guidelines. All assays produce high FRRs amongst virally suppressed patients (>40%), including elite controllers and treated patients. Conclusions:Results from this first independent evaluation provide valuable information about the current performance of assays, and suggest the need for further optimization. Variation of ‘recent’/‘nonrecent’ thresholds and the use of multiple antibody-maturation assays, as well as other biomarkers, can now be explored, using the rich data generated by the Consortium for the Evaluation and Performance of HIV Incidence Assays. Consistently high FRRs amongst those virally suppressed suggest that viral load will be a particularly valuable supplementary marker. Video abstract:http://links.lww.com/QAD/A569

A New General Biomarker-based Incidence Estimator

Background: Estimating disease incidence from cross-sectional surveys, using biomarkers for “recent” infection, has attracted much interest. Despite widespread applications to HIV, there is currently no consensus on the correct handling of biomarker results classifying persons as “recently” infected long after the infections occurred. Methods: We derive a general expression for a weighted average of recent incidence that—unlike previous estimators—requires no particular assumption about recent infection biomarker dynamics or about the demographic and epidemiologic context. This is possible through the introduction of an explicit timescale T that truncates the period of averaging implied by the estimator. Results: The recent infection test dynamics can be summarized into 2 parameters, similar to those appearing in previous estimators: a mean duration of recent infection and a false-recent rate. We identify a number of dimensionless parameters that capture the bias that arises from working with tractable forms of the resulting estimator and elucidate the utility of the incidence estimator in terms of the performance of the recency test and the population state. Estimation of test characteristics and incidence is demonstrated using simulated data. The observed confidence interval coverage of the test characteristics and incidence is within 1% of intended coverage. Conclusions: Biomarker-based incidence estimation can be consistently adapted to a general context without the strong assumptions of previous work about biomarker dynamics and epidemiologic and demographic history.

Recalibration of the Limiting Antigen Avidity EIA to Determine Mean Duration of Recent Infection in Divergent HIV-1 Subtypes

Background Mean duration of recent infection (MDRI) and misclassification of long-term HIV-1 infections, as proportion false recent (PFR), are critical parameters for laboratory-based assays for estimating HIV-1 incidence. Recent review of the data by us and others indicated that MDRI of LAg-Avidity EIA estimated previously required recalibration. We present here results of recalibration efforts using >250 seroconversion panels and multiple statistical methods to ensure accuracy and consensus. Methods A total of 2737 longitudinal specimens collected from 259 seroconverting individuals infected with diverse HIV-1 subtypes were tested with the LAg-Avidity EIA as previously described. Data were analyzed for determination of MDRI at ODn cutoffs of 1.0 to 2.0 using 7 statistical approaches and sub-analyzed by HIV-1 subtypes. In addition, 3740 specimens from individuals with infection >1 year, including 488 from patients with AIDS, were tested for PFR at varying cutoffs. Results Using different statistical methods, MDRI values ranged from 88–94 days at cutoff ODn = 1.0 to 177–183 days at ODn = 2.0. The MDRI values were similar by different methods suggesting coherence of different approaches. Testing for misclassification among long-term infections indicated that overall PFRs were 0.6% to 2.5% at increasing cutoffs of 1.0 to 2.0, respectively. Balancing the need for a longer MDRI and smaller PFR (<2.0%) suggests that a cutoff ODn = 1.5, corresponding to an MDRI of 130 days should be used for cross-sectional application. The MDRI varied among subtypes from 109 days (subtype A&D) to 152 days (subtype C). Conclusions Based on the new data and revised analysis, we recommend an ODn cutoff = 1.5 to classify recent and long-term infections, corresponding to an MDRI of 130 days (118–142). Determination of revised parameters for estimation of HIV-1 incidence should facilitate application of the LAg-Avidity EIA for worldwide use.

Age-disparate relationships and implications for STI transmission among young adults in Cape Town, South Africa

ABSTRACT Objectives To estimate the prevalence of age-disparate (AD) relationships among young black and coloured adults in Cape Town (South Africa) and determine socio-demographic predictors and individual and relationship characteristics of women in these relationships. Methods A secondary analysis of the Cape Area Panel Study (N = 1960) data was conducted. Descriptive statistics were used to quantify the age-mixing pattern and logistic regression was used to identify significant socio-demographic and behavioural correlates of AD relationships. Results Prevalence of AD relationships was high in both black (36%) and coloured (28%) women. The average age difference between male respondents and their partners increased with age. Young, black women who spent fewer nights under the same roof in one week, had a deceased parent, and were not currently attending classes were more likely to be in an AD relationship. Reports of sexually-transmitted infection (STI) symptoms in the last month and unprotected sex were more common among women in AD relationships. Conclusions AD relationships are common among young women in Cape Town. Home and family stability is preventative of young women engaging in AD relationships. Therefore, holistic, societal interventions may reduce AD relationships, which are a risk factor for STIs.

Viral load criteria and threshold optimization to improve HIV incidence assay characteristics

Objective:Assays for classifying HIV infections as ‘recent’ or ‘nonrecent’ for incidence surveillance fail to simultaneously achieve large mean durations of ‘recent’ infection (MDRIs) and low ‘false-recent’ rates (FRRs), particularly in virally suppressed persons. The potential for optimizing recent infection testing algorithms (RITAs), by introducing viral load criteria and tuning thresholds used to dichotomize quantitative measures, is explored. Design:The Consortium for the Evaluation and Performance of HIV Incidence Assays characterized over 2000 possible RITAs constructed from seven assays (Limiting Antigen, BED, Less-sensitive Vitros, Vitros Avidity, BioRad Avidity, Architect Avidity, and Geenius) applied to 2500 diverse specimens. Methods:MDRIs were estimated using regression, and FRRs as observed ‘recent’ proportions, in various specimen sets. Context-specific FRRs were estimated for hypothetical scenarios. FRRs were made directly comparable by constructing RITAs with the same MDRI through the tuning of thresholds. RITA utility was summarized by the precision of incidence estimation. Results:All assays produce high FRRs among treated patients and elite controllers (10–80%). Viral load testing reduces FRRs, but diminishes MDRIs. Context-specific FRRs vary substantially by scenario – BioRad Avidity and Limiting Antigen provided the lowest FRRs and highest incidence precision in scenarios considered. Conclusion:The introduction of a low viral load threshold provides crucial improvements in RITAs. However, it does not eliminate nonzero FRRs, and MDRIs must be consistently estimated. The tuning of thresholds is essential for comparing and optimizing the use of assays. The translation of directly measured FRRs into context-specific FRRs critically affects their magnitudes and our understanding of the utility of assays.

Performance of the Bio-Rad Geenius HIV1/2 Supplemental Assay in Detecting "Recent" HIV Infection and Calculating Population Incidence.

Objective:HIV seroconversion biomarkers are being used in cross-sectional studies for HIV incidence estimation. Bio-Rad Geenius HIV-1/2 Supplemental Assay is an immunochromatographic single-use assay that measures antibodies (Ab) against multiple HIV-1/2 antigens. The objective of this study was to determine whether the Geenius assay could additionally be used for recency estimation. Design:This assay was developed for HIV-1/2 confirmation; however, quantitative data acquired give information on increasing concentration and diversity of antibody responses over time during seroconversion. A quantitative threshold of recent HIV infection was proposed to determine “recent” or “nonrecent” HIV infection; performance using this cutoff was evaluated. Methods:We tested 2500 highly characterized specimens from research subjects in the United States, Brazil, and Africa with well-defined durations of HIV infection. Regression and frequency estimation were used to estimate assay properties relevant to HIV incidence measurement: mean duration of recent infection (MDRI), false-recent rate, and assay reproducibility and robustness. Results:Using the manufacturers proposed cutoff index of 1.5 to identify “recent” infection, the assay has an estimated false-recent rate of 4.1% (95% CI: 2.2 to 7.0) and MDRI of 179 days (155 to 201) in specimens from treatment-naive subjects, presenting performance challenges similar to other incidence assays. Lower index cutoffs associated with lower MDRI gave a lower rate of false-recent results. Conclusions:These data suggest that with additional interpretive analysis of the band intensities using an algorithm and cutoff, the Geenius HIV-1/2 Supplemental Assay can be used to identify recent HIV infection in addition to confirming the presence of HIV-1 and HIV-2 antibodies.

Moving towards a reliable HIV incidence test - current status, resources available, future directions and challenges ahead.

In 2011 the Incidence Assay Critical Path Working Group reviewed the current state of HIV incidence assays and helped to determine a critical path to the introduction of an HIV incidence assay. At that time the Consortium for Evaluation and Performance of HIV Incidence Assays (CEPHIA) was formed to spur progress and raise standards among assay developers, scientists and laboratories involved in HIV incidence measurement and to structure and conduct a direct independent comparative evaluation of the performance of 10 existing HIV incidence assays, to be considered singly and in combinations as recent infection test algorithms. In this paper we report on a new framework for HIV incidence assay evaluation that has emerged from this effort over the past 5 years, which includes a preliminary target product profile for an incidence assay, a consensus around key performance metrics along with analytical tools and deployment of a standardized approach for incidence assay evaluation. The specimen panels for this evaluation have been collected in large volumes, characterized using a novel approach for infection dating rules and assembled into panels designed to assess the impact of important sources of measurement error with incidence assays such as viral subtype, elite host control of viraemia and antiretroviral treatment. We present the specific rationale for several of these innovations, and discuss important resources for assay developers and researchers that have recently become available. Finally, we summarize the key remaining steps on the path to development and implementation of reliable assays for monitoring HIV incidence at a population level.

Seroconverting blood donors as a resource for characterising and optimising recent infection testing algorithms for incidence estimation.

Introduction Biomarker-based cross-sectional incidence estimation requires a Recent Infection Testing Algorithm (RITA) with an adequately large mean recency duration, to achieve reasonable survey counts, and a low false-recent rate, to minimise exposure to further bias and imprecision. Estimating these characteristics requires specimens from individuals with well-known seroconversion dates or confirmed long-standing infection. Specimens with well-known seroconversion dates are typically rare and precious, presenting a bottleneck in the development of RITAs. Methods The mean recency duration and a ‘false-recent rate’ are estimated from data on seroconverting blood donors. Within an idealised model for the dynamics of false-recent results, blood donor specimens were used to characterise RITAs by a new method that maximises the likelihood of cohort-level recency classifications, rather than modelling individual sojourn times in recency. Results For a range of assumptions about the false-recent results (0% to 20% of biomarker response curves failing to reach the threshold distinguishing test-recent and test-non-recent infection), the mean recency duration of the Vironostika-LS ranged from 154 (95% CI: 96–231) to 274 (95% CI: 234–313) days in the South African donor population (n = 282), and from 145 (95% CI: 67–226) to 252 (95% CI: 194–308) days in the American donor population (n = 106). The significance of gender and clade on performance was rejected (p−value = 10%), and utility in incidence estimation appeared comparable to that of a BED-like RITA. Assessment of the Vitros-LS (n = 108) suggested potentially high false-recent rates. Discussion The new method facilitates RITA characterisation using widely available specimens that were previously overlooked, at the cost of possible artefacts. While accuracy and precision are insufficient to provide estimates suitable for incidence surveillance, a low-cost approach for preliminary assessments of new RITAs has been demonstrated. The Vironostika-LS and Vitros-LS warrant further analysis to provide greater precision of estimates.

Cross-Sectional HIV Incidence Surveillance: A Benchmarking of Approaches for Estimating the ‘Mean Duration of Recent Infection’

Abstract The application of biomarkers for ‘recent’ infection in cross-sectional HIV incidence surveillance requires the estimation of critical biomarker characteristics. Various approaches have been employed for using longitudinal data to estimate the Mean Duration of Recent Infection (MDRI) – the average time in the ‘recent’ state. In this systematic benchmarking of MDRI estimation approaches, a simulation platform was used to measure accuracy and precision of over twenty approaches, in thirty scenarios capturing various study designs, subject behaviors and test dynamics that may be encountered in practice. Results highlight that assuming a single continuous sojourn in the ‘recent’ state can produce substantial bias. Simple interpolation provides useful MDRI estimates provided subjects are tested at regular intervals. Regression performs the best – while ‘random effects’ describe the subject-clustering in the data, regression models without random effects proved easy to implement, stable, and of similar accuracy in scenarios considered; robustness to parametric assumptions was improved by regressing ‘recent’/‘non-recent’ classifications rather than continuous biomarker readings. All approaches were vulnerable to incorrect assumptions about subjects’ (unobserved) infection times. Results provided show the relationships between MDRI estimation performance and the number of subjects, inter-visit intervals, missed visits, loss to follow-up, and aspects of biomarker signal and noise.