Reyno Seymore

Analysis of the South African input-output table to determine sector specific economic impacts: A study on real estate

Input-output analysis is a well known method of analysing specific economic activity and the influence of different sectors on the economy and on one another. This study investigates the ability of input-output analysis to consider the importance of commercial real estate on the economy. It analyses the economic activity, contribution to GDP, employment created and taxes generated with reference to direct, indirect and induced impacts. The research shows the contribution of the specific sector on the economy and highlights the ability of input-output analysis to determine the impact of different types of property and locational analysis. The interaction of property with the economy is discussed, which also enables the use of the analysis reported here for short term future forecasting, whereby expected real estate activity is used to forecast the direct, indirect and induced effects on the economy.Background Two thirds of the world’s new HIV infections are in sub-Saharan Africa. Acute HIV infection (AHI) is the time of virus acquisition until the appearance of HIV antibodies. Early HIV infection, which includes AHI, is the interval between virus acquisition and establishment of viral load set-point. This study aimed to detect acute and early HIV infections in a hyper-endemic setting. Methods This was a cross-sectional diagnostic study that enrolled individuals who had negative rapid HIV results in five clinics in South Africa. Pooled nucleic acid amplification testing (NAAT) was performed, followed by individual sample testing in positive pools. NAAT-positive participants were recalled to the clinics for confirmatory testing and appropriate management. HIV antibody, p24 antigen, Western Blot and avidity tests were performed for characterization of NAAT-positive samples. Results The study enrolled 6910 individuals with negative rapid HIV results. Median age was 27 years (interquartile range {IQR}: 23–31). NAAT was positive in 55 samples, resulting in 0.8% newly diagnosed HIV-infected individuals (95% confidence interval {CI}: 0.6–1.0). The negative predictive value for rapid HIV testing was 99.2% (95% CI: 99.0–99.4). Characterization of NAAT-positive samples revealed that 0.04% (95% CI: 0.000–0.001) had AHI, 0.3% (95% CI: 0.1–0.4) had early HIV infection, and 0.5% (95% CI: 0.5–0.7) had chronic HIV infection. Forty-seven (86%) of NAAT-positive participants returned for follow-up at a median of 4 weeks (IQR: 2–8). Follow-up rapid tests were positive in 96% of these participants. Conclusions NAAT demonstrated that a substantial number of HIV-infected individuals are misdiagnosed at South African points-of-care. Follow-up rapid tests done within a 4 week interval detected early and chronic HIV infections initially missed by rapid HIV testing. This may be a practical and affordable strategy for earlier detection of these infections in resource-constrained settings. Newer molecular tests that can be used at the points-of-care should be evaluated for routine diagnosis of HIV in hyper-endemic settings.

The Welfare Effects of Reversed Border Tax Adjustments as a Remedy under Unilateral Environmental Taxation

Border Tax Adjustments (BTAs) resurfaced recently in national policy debates as a possible measure to counter the anti-competitiveness effect of unilateral environmental taxes. There seems to be no consensus in the literature on the effectiveness of BTAs under environmental taxes. This paper aims to provide a theoretical Heckscher-Ohlin analysis that not only challenges the effectiveness of BTAs, but also proposes an alternative approach to counter the anti-competitiveness effect of unilateral environmental taxes. Using conventional Heckscher-Ohlin methodology, in a small country, we show that policy makers should, instead of implementing BTAs, consider the opposite of BTAs to mitigate the anti-competitiveness effects of environmental taxes. We show that gains from trade, due to a reduction in import tariffs, could, under certain assumptions, offset the initial tax induced welfare loss.

The Impact of a Multilateral Electricity Generation Tax on Competitiveness in Southern Africa: A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis Using the Global Trade Analysis Project

The South African Government announced, in the 2008 Budget Review, the intention to tax the generation of electricity from non-renewable sources with 2c/kWh. The intention of the tax is to serve a dual purpose of managing the potential electricity shortages in South Africa and to protect the environment. The primary objective of this paper is to evaluate the impact of an electricity generation tax on the international competitiveness of South Africa. Specifically, different scenarios are assessed to establish whether the loss of competitiveness can be negated through an international, multilateral electricity generation tax. The paper firstly considers the beneficial impact of environmental taxation on the competitiveness of a country. We subsequently apply the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model to evaluate the impact of an electricity generation tax on the competitiveness of South Africa, given multilateral taxes on SACU, SADC and European Union economies. It is shown that an electricity generation tax will indeed affect the competitiveness of South Africa in a negative way. Furthermore, SACU and SADC wide implementation will marginally reinforce these negative effects. However, a multilateral electricity generation tax across SACU or SADC countries will result in emission reductions, but lower than in the case of a unilateral electricity generation tax. In contrast, the cost to the South African economy could be limited, if the European Union would follow suit and implement an electricity generation tax. One could therefore argue in favour of global rules for environmental taxes, since this will ensure minimum negative competitiveness effects on participating countries.