Ricardo Tomé

Daily Precipitation Extreme Events in the Iberian Peninsula and Its Association with Atmospheric Rivers

AbstractAn automated atmospheric rivers (ARs) detection algorithm is used for the North Atlantic Ocean basin that allows the identification and a comprehensive characterization of the major AR events that affected the Iberian Peninsula over the 1948–2012 period. The extreme precipitation days in the Iberian Peninsula and their association (or not) with the occurrence of ARs is analyzed in detail. The extreme precipitation days are ranked by their magnitude and are obtained after considering 1) the area affected and 2) the precipitation intensity. Different rankings are presented for the entire Iberian Peninsula, for Portugal, and for the six largest Iberian river basins (Minho, Duero, Tagus, Guadiana, Guadalquivir, and Ebro) covering the 1950–2008 period. Results show that the association between ARs and extreme precipitation days in the western domains (Portugal, Minho, Tagus, and Duero) is noteworthy, while for the eastern and southern basins (Ebro, Guadiana, and Guadalquivir) the impact of ARs is reduc...

Experimental Study on the Atmospheric Delay Based on GPS, SAR Interferometry, and Numerical Weather Model Data

In this paper, we present the results of an experiment aiming to compare measurements of atmospheric delay by synthetic aperture radar (SAR) interferometry and GPS techniques to estimates by numerical weather prediction. Maps of the differential atmospheric delay are generated by processing a set of interferometric SAR images acquired by the ENVISAT-ASAR mission over the Lisbon region from April to November 2009. GPS measurements of the wet zenith delay are carried out over the same area, covering the time interval between the first and the last SAR acquisition. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is used to model the atmospheric delay over the study area at about the same time of SAR acquisitions. The analysis of results gives hints to devise mitigation approaches of atmospheric artifacts in SAR interferometry applications.

On the Use of the WRF Model to Mitigate Tropospheric Phase Delay Effects in SAR Interferograms

A method that is used to generate synthetic interferograms of the atmospheric phase delay temporal changes is presented. The Weather Research and Forecasting Model is used to forecast the spatial distribution of the main atmospheric parameters at the acquisition times of synthetic aperture radar (SAR) images. The method is applied to mitigate atmospheric artifacts in SAR interferograms. The Lisbon Region and the Pico and Faial Islands in the Azores archipelago are chosen as case studies. They are characterized by a different temporal behavior of atmospheric phase delay properties. Results are assessed by means of a statistical analysis.

Wake Response to an Ocean-Feedback Mechanism: Madeira Island Case Study

We focus on an island wake episode that occurred in the Madeira Archipelago region of the north-east Atlantic at

The Influence of Atmospheric Rivers over the South Atlantic on Winter Rainfall in South Africa

32.5^{\circ }\mathrm{N}, 17^{\circ }\mathrm{W}

High-resolution multi-model projections of onshore wind resources over Portugal under a changing climate

. The Weather Research and Forecasting numerical model was used in a (one-way) downscaling mode, considering initial and boundary conditions from the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts system. The current literature emphasizes adiabatic effects on the dynamical aspects of atmospheric wakes. Changes in mountain height and consequently its relation to the atmospheric inversion layer should explain the shift in wake regimes, from a ‘strong-wake’ to ‘weak-wake’ scenario. Nevertheless, changes in sea-surface temperature variability in the lee of an island can induce similar regime shifts because of exposure to stronger solar radiation. Increase in evaporation contributes to the enhancement of convection and thus to the uplift of the stratified atmospheric layer above the critical height, with subsequent internal gravity wave activity.

A hybrid short-term solar power forecasting tool

Atmospheric Rivers (ARs) are elongated bands of high water vapor concentration extending to the midlatitudes, which can be associated with intense precipitation and floods over continental areas. We analyze ARs reaching Europe in simulations from six Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) global climate models (GCMs) to quantify possible changes during the current century, with emphasis in five western European prone coastal areas. ARs are represented reasonably well in GCMs for recent climate conditions (1980–2005). Increased vertically integrated horizontal water transport is found for 2074–2099 (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) compared to 1980–2005, while the number of ARs is projected to double on average for the same period. These changes are robust between models and are associated with higher air temperatures and thus enhanced atmospheric moisture content, together with higher precipitation associated with extratropical cyclones. This suggests an increased risk of intense precipitation and floods along the Atlantic European Coasts from the Iberian Peninsula to Scandinavia.

Comparison of precipitable water vapor (PWV) maps derived by GPS, SAR interferometry, and numerical forecasting models

AbstractA climatology of atmospheric rivers (ARs) impinging on the west coast of South Africa (29°–34.5°S) during the austral winter months (April–September) was developed for the period 1979–2014 using an automated detection algorithm and two reanalysis products as input. The two products show relatively good agreement, with 10–15 persistent ARs (lasting 18 h or longer) occurring on average per winter and nearly two-thirds of these systems occurring poleward of 35°S. The relationship between persistent AR activity and winter rainfall is demonstrated using South African Weather Service rainfall data. Most stations positioned in areas of high topography contained the highest percentage of rainfall contributed by persistent ARs, whereas stations downwind, to the east of the major topographic barriers, had the lowest contributions. Extreme rainfall days in the region are also ranked by their magnitude and spatial extent. The results suggest that although persistent ARs are important contributors to heavy rai...