Riccardo Inghelmann

Regional estimates of stomach cancer burden in Italy.

Aims and background Stomach cancer still remains one of the most frequent tumors in Italy and Europe. The aim of this paper is to present estimates for stomach cancer mortality, incidence and prevalence over the period 1970-2010 for the Italian regions and for Italy as a whole. Methods Estimated figures for incidence, prevalence and mortality were obtained by using the MIAMOD method. Starting from the knowledge of mortality in the period 1970-1999 and of relative survival in the period of diagnosis 1978-1994, we derived incidence and prevalence estimates and projections up to the year 2010 by means of a statistical back-calculation approach. Survival at the regional and national levels was modelled on the basis of published survival data from the Italian cancer registries. Results Incidence and mortality trends for both sexes decrease by about 60% during the estimation period 1970-2010. Both indicators show a 2-fold male/female ratio all over the country, and a similar gender time trend. The incidence and mortality in the North and Center of the country are estimated to be higher and to decrease more steeply than those in the South, both for men and women. A total of around 13,000 incident cases, 57,000 prevalent cases, and 8,000 deaths are estimated to have occurred in Italy in 2005. Conclusions The incidence and mortality trends are estimated to decline during the entire period 1970-2010, with different slopes between northern-central and southern regions. The incidence and mortality are quite similar among Italian regions, showing that the risk of developing the disease diminishes and is becoming more homogeneous than in the past decades all over the country.

A method to estimate mortality trends when death certificates are imprecisely coded: An application to cervical cancer in Italy

Systematic analysis of mortality trends of cervix and corpus uteri cancers is difficult in Italy, as in many other countries, because of the poor specification of uterine cancer subsites in official death statistics. The aim of this article is to propose a method for the analysis of uterine cancers mortality based on high quality incidence and prevalence data from population‐based cancer registries. The method assumes that the excess mortality of cancer patients, compared to death rates expected in the general population, is attributable to the specific cancer. The method is applied to estimate mortality trends for cancers of cervix, corpus and uterus as whole, during the period 1987–1999, in an area covered by 8 Italian cancer registries. Official mortality rates for the 2 subsites were about 60% lower than excess mortality rates, due to the very high proportion of deaths attributed to not specified subsite. Age adjusted cervical cancer excess mortality rates decreased from 3.7 to 2.7 × 100,000 women. Excess mortality for corpus uteri cancer remained approximately stable between 3 and 3.3 × 100,000 women in the period 1990–1999. The results support the efficacy of organized screening in reducing cervical cancer mortality. The same method can be used to assess mortality rates for every cancer entity identifiable in cancer registries data, not otherwise available from official death records.

CANCER PREVALENCE ESTIMATES IN ITALY FROM 1970 TO 2010

Aims and background The growing number of cancer survivors in Italy is expected to continue to increase as a consequence of population aging and survival improvements, but few estimates are currently available, particularly on the national and regional scale. The purpose of this work is to present detailed and updated prevalence estimates in Italy over the period 1970-2010 by cancer site (all cancers combined, stomach, colon and rectum, lung, breast and prostate) and gender. Methods Prevalence was derived with the MIAMOD statistical method, using cancer-specific mortality and relative survival as input data. Survival data from the Italian cancer registries were modeled to derive a national estimate for each cancer site and sex. To estimate prevalence trends, survival was assumed to improve in the future with the same rate observed in the period 1978-1994. A double scenario for survival - increasing or stationary - was considered to decompose the prevalence growth from 1995 to 2005 by its determinants: demographic changes, incidence and survival dynamics. The prevalence estimates were also decomposed by disease duration (2, 5 and 10 years) and by age (0-44, 45-59, 60-74 and 75-99). Results The proportion of cancer survivors in 2010 is expected to be about 4% in women and 3% in men, about twice the values attained in 1990. The highest dynamics was observed for prostate cancer, with a three-fold increase just in the 1995-2005 period (from 212 to 623 per 100,000), whereas in absolute terms breast cancer presented the highest levels (1,700 per 100,000 in 2010). The overall number of cancer prevalent cases is expected to rise by about 48% in the decennium 1995-2005 (from 1,152,000 to 1,709,000), and this growth is mainly attributable to incidence dynamics (+21%), then to survival improvements (+14%) and population aging (13%). In 2005, the 2-year prevalent cases were estimated to be 20% of all cancer survivors, 21% between 2 and 5 years from the diagnosis, 23% between 5 and 10 years, with 36% surviving for more than 10 years. Prevalence proportion was very high in the elderly (12.6% for 75-84 years and 8% for 60-74 years). Conclusions Updated prevalence data with appropriate coverage of the national territory are essential to define priorities in health care management and to develop cancer control programs. Prevalence by disease duration and by age should be the basis for planning research on the quality of life of cancer survivors, as long as cancer continues to become an even more chronic disease.

Regional estimates of breast cancer burden in Italy

Aims and background Breast cancer is the most common cancer and the leading cause of cancer death among women. Knowledge of the present and future burden of the disease at a regional and national scale is a major issue in Italy, where the frequency and coverage of screening programs vary considerably across the country. This study presents estimates and projections of the female breast cancer incidence, prevalence and mortality for Italy and all Italian regions in the period 1970-2010. Methods The estimates were obtained by applying the MIAMOD method, a statistical back-calculation approach to derive incidence and prevalence figures from mortality and relative survival data. Published data from the Italian cancer registries were modelled to obtain regional and national estimates of breast cancer survival. Results Breast cancer mortality has been declining from the late 1980s in the northern-central regions and from the mid 1990s in the southern regions Puglia, Sicilia and Sardegna. Stable mortality rates are estimated for the other southern regions in the 2000s first decade. The incidence rate in Italy is estimated as increasing until the late 1990s, and stable thereafter (93 per 100,000). The incidence curve is also estimated to flatten in many northern-central regions from the late 1990s or later. Rising incidence trends are estimated in all southern regions, with the exception of Puglia. About 8,500 deaths, 37,000 new diagnoses and 416,000 prevalent cases for breast cancer are estimated among Italian women in 2005. In the same year, the proportion of prevalent cases in the northern area (1,221 per 100,000) is about twice that estimated in the South (685 per 100,000). Discussion The geographical variation in female breast cancer burden can be explained by the unequal distribution of screening. A more widespread screening activity in the southern regions would help to bridge the gap between northern-central and southern regions. Continuous monitoring of regional epidemiological indicators for breast cancer is crucial to evaluate the effect of different health measures taken to control breast cancer in Italy.

REGIONAL ESTIMATES OF PROSTATE CANCER BURDEN IN ITALY

Aims and background Prostate cancer is one of the most common cancers in developed countries and the most common among men in industrialized countries. The introduction of new diagnostic procedures caused an increase in new diagnoses in Italy starting from the early 1990s, while the prognosis of prostate cancer improved due to the use of hormonal treatments. The aim of this paper is to present estimates of prostate cancer mortality, incidence and prevalence over the period 1970-2005 for the Italian regions and for Italy as a whole, and to assess the changes that opportunistic screening and the diffusion of more effective treatments introduced. Methods Estimated figures for incidence, prevalence and mortality were obtained with the MIAMOD method. Starting from the knowledge of mortality in the period 1970-1999 and of the relative survival in the period of diagnosis 1978-1994, we derived incidence and prevalence estimates up to the year 2005 by means of a statistical back-calculation approach. Survival at regional and national levels was modelled on the basis of published survival data from the Italian cancer registries. Results The incidence trend showed a steep increase all over the country during the entire estimation period 1970-2005 with a more pronounced increase in the Center-North then in the South of Italy. Incidence of northern and central regions was about twice as high as that of southern regions. Mortality trends were however constant or declining in the majority of northern-central regions, while they still increased in the South. A total of around 43,000 incident cases, 174,000 prevalent cases and 9,000 deaths were estimated for Italy in 2005. Discussion The effects of opportunistic screening are reflected in an earlier diagnosis for many patients. The existing North-South gradient in incidence seems to be associated with the different spread of the PSA test in different parts of the country. Prostate cancer remains a great health problem in terms of both incidence and prevalence.

Regional estimates of colorectal cancer burden in Italy

Aims and background In terms of new diagnoses, colorectal cancer is one of the most important cancers in Italy and worldwide. The aim of this paper is to present estimates of the mortality, incidence and prevalence of colorectal cancer in Italy at a national and regional scale over the period 1970-1999, with projections up to 2010. Methods The estimates were obtained by applying the MIAMOD method, a statistical back-calculation approach to derive incidence and prevalence estimates from mortality and relative survival data. Published data from the Italian cancer registries were modelled to obtain regional and national estimates of colorectal cancer survival. Results Different incidence patterns were observed for men and women, especially in the projection period: the national age-standardized rate is estimated to increase throughout the study period 1970-2010 for men from 30 to 70 per 100,000, and to stabilize from the end of the 1990s for women at around 38 per 100,000. A stabilization or a slight decrease in age-standardized incidence rates is expected in most regions for women and in most northern-central regions for men. The most critical situation is estimated among men for southern regions, where the rise in incidence is accompanied by a dramatic increase in mortality. About 46,000 incident cases, 267,000 prevalent cases, and 16,000 deaths from colorectal cancer are estimated in Italy for the year 2005. Conclusions Despite the risk reduction estimated in most northern-central regions among men and in the large majority of regions among women, the colorectal cancer burden in Italy is expected to remain relevant in the next years. Prospects for reducing this burden appear mainly connected to the adoption of prevention policies aimed at increasing the awareness of the risk related to dietary habits and lifestyles and at promoting colorectal cancer screening.

REGIONAL ESTIMATES OF ALL CANCER MALIGNANCIES IN ITALY

Aims and background The aim of this paper is to present regional and national estimates of mortality, incidence and prevalence for all cancers in Italy over the period 1970-1999, with projections up to 2010. Methods The estimates were obtained by applying the MIAMOD method, a statistical back-calculation approach, to derive incidence and prevalence starting from mortality and relative survival data. Published data from the Italian Cancer Registries were modeled in order to estimate regional and national cancer survival. Results Cancer time trends resulted more favorable in northern-central regions than in southern regions, both for men and women. Mortality started to decrease in the northern-central area approximately from the mid 1980s, whereas it was expected to slightly decline only after the year 2000 in the southern area. Incidence was estimated to decrease in men from 1995 in northern and central areas only; no incidence reduction is expected for women during the study period. Overall, 130,000 cancer deaths, 250,000 new cancer cases and 1,700,000 prevalent cancer cases are estimated in Italy in the year 2005. Conclusions This up-to-date picture of cancer risk and burden in the Italian regions shows as a relevant epidemiological change is ongoing in Italy. Although a clear geographical variability in mortality and morbidity levels still exists across the country, the historical North-to-South gap appears smaller than in the past. This change is particularly remarkable for men, as a consequence of trends that are favorable in northern-central regions but not yet in southern regions.

Regional estimates of lung cancer burden in Italy

Aims and background The aim of this paper is to present the Italian regional and national estimates of the mortality, incidence and prevalence over the period 1970-2010 for lung cancer, one of the most common cancers in Italy and Europe, especially among men. Methods The estimates were obtained with the MIAMOD method, a statistical back-calculation approach to derive incidence and prevalence figures using mortality and relative survival data. Published survival data from the Italian cancer registries were appropriately modelled in order to estimate survival at regional and national level. Results For men, the Italian lung cancer mortality and incidence rates reached their maximum values during the late 1980s and steeply decreased thereafter. This pattern is quite uniform across all regions, even though the decrease was delayed and less steep in the South of the country. For women, both indicators appear to be increasing at the national level, even though a certain regional variability in incidence trends remains within the country: some regions (such as Lazio, Umbria, Marche, Campania, Sardegna and Friuli Venezia Giulia) present increasing trends, while in others a clear levelling off is visible. A total of 33,500 incident cases, 72,000 prevalent cases and 28,000 deaths are estimated in Italy in 2005. Conclusions This study produced an up-to-date description of lung cancer epidemiology both at national and regional level. The marked difference in lung cancer figures and trends between sexes suggests that prevention policies have led to changes in smoking habits for men, while for women they were lacking in efficacy. The attention should now focus on women, whose risk trend is the least favorable.

ITALIAN CANCER BURDEN BY BROAD GEOGRAPHICAL AREA

Aims and background Cancer burden estimates in Italian regions are available for the period 1970-2010 as a result of the project “I TUMORI IN ITALIA” connected with EUROCHIP, the European project on cancer control. The Italian health-care system is organized at a regional level, so regional estimates of cancer indicators are useful to identify priorities for cancer plans. We compared cancer site-specific epidemiological estimates by 3 macro-areas (obtained by grouping regions) to suggest priorities for Italian cancer control plans, both at national and regional levels. Methods Mortality and incidence estimates for all cancers combined and for stomach, colorectal, lung, breast and prostate cancers were downloaded from the website www.tumori.net and aggregated in broad age classes (0-54, 55-74 and 75-84 years) and macro-areas (northern, central and southern Italy). Results Historically, Southern Italy had a lower cancer risk than the Center and North. After 2000 this epidemiological picture disappeared and the incidence and mortality rates in the Center are reaching those of the North. Also the weight of various cancer sites on all cancers has changed in Italy in the last decades. Lung cancer is still the most frequent cancer in the male population in the South, while in the Center-North it has been surpassed by prostate cancer and colorectal cancer. The lung cancer weight on all cancer deaths is increasing in women. Prostate cancer has become the most frequent male cancer in the Center-North in the age class 55-84. Breast cancer is the most frequent cancer in the female population and its incidence rates in the North are higher than those in the Center-South for all age classes. Colorectal cancer incidence rates have dramatically increased in men and colorectal cancer is nowadays the second cancer diagnosed in women in all age classes and macro-areas. Discussion From the epidemiological data here presented we derived the following suggestions and observations for cancer control plans: a) tobacco prevention should focus on the male population in the South, and on female populations in the country as a whole; b) prevention concerning diet and physical activity (risk factors for colorectal cancer) should be considered mainly for men at a national level; c) the coverage of breast cancer screening programs should be increased in the Center-South; d) colorectal cancer screening should be promoted at a national level; e) PSA testing (that is not actually included among the screening programs recommended) for prostate cancer is probably more widespread in the Center-North, resulting in an increased incidence without any evident decline in mortality as yet.

Estimated and observed cancer incidence in Italy: A validation study

AIMS AND BACKGROUND The study aimed to validate model-based incidence estimates by means of observed incidence rates provided by Italian cancer registries, for five major cancer sites (stomach, colon and rectum, lung, breast and prostate cancers) and for all cancers together. METHODS Recent incidence rates observed by Italian population-based cancer registries were extracted from the data base of the Italian Association of Cancer Registries. Regional estimates of incidence rates for the same cancers were obtained by the MIAMOD method. Observed and estimated crude incidence rates and incidence trends were compared for the period of diagnosis 1985-2000. Eight Italian cancer registries and seven regions were selected for the analysis since they had incidence data available during the entire selected period. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS An excellent agreement between estimated and observed crude incidence rates was found for all single cancer sites, regarding absolute incidence levels and time trends. A partial exception was breast, where empirical data showed a sudden increase in the last three years of observation, perhaps due to organized screenings in some Italian regions, and not captured by statistical models. Substantial underestimation of model-based incidence rates was found for all cancers combined, where the difference tended to increase with calendar year, up to a maximum of 20% in recent years. The greatest part of the discrepancy can be attributed to multiple cancers, which were included in cancer registries statistics but were not accounted for in MIAMOD estimates.