Riccardo Magnani

Is an Increase in the Minimum Retirement Age Always Desirable? The Case of Notional Defined Contribution Systems

Several countries have recently introduced reforms that aim to increase the neutrality of their pension system by introducing an incentives-disincentives mechanism or by replacing their traditional defined-benefit system with a Notional Defined Contribution method. This paper evaluates the financial effects of an increase in the minimum retirement age in countries where a Notional Defined Contribution system exists. We show that such a reform produces a positive effect on the financial situation of the pension system (by generating surpluses or by reducing deficits) in the short and in the medium run, but it becomes completely ineffective in the long run. This result implies that in countries where the pension system is sufficiently neutral such a reform is not appropriate to solve the problem of population ageing which is a long-run problem.

A Regional Dynamic General Equilibrium Model with Historical Calibration: A Counterfactual Exercise

This chapter develops a regional dynamic general equilibrium model calibrated using two regional SAMs for the Italian region Valle D’Aosta for the years 1963 and 2002. A historical calibration procedure is performed over the 40 years period and ensures that the modelled tendencies perfectly reproduce the actual observed growth patterns of the main regional macroeconomic variables. The dynamic general equilibrium model provides an original and powerful tool for historical counterfactual analysis not available using standard dynamic general equilibrium models. The model is used to compare the growth path followed by the region during the period of interest with a counterfactual scenario intended to evaluate how the region would have performed in the case of a contraction of the transfers from the national government to the regional government and the families.

The Political Economy of the CAP Reform in Italy

This chapter analyses the ex-ante socio-economic impact of the CAP reform on Italian agriculture and the whole economy using a micro-funded general equilibrium model which differentiates the impact at the household level. The political economy analysis of the consequences of the reform has clearly revealed the positions of farmers and agro-food industries, consumers, and farming unions concerning the issue of a total or partial implementation of decoupling. The policy analysis permits both an understanding of the possible social conflicts arising from the implementation of the reform and a unique ranking of the policy alternatives.

A Micro-Macro Simulation Model Applied to the French Economy: The Case of a Euro’s Real Depreciation

In this chapter, we use a Micro-Macro simulation model to evaluate the distributional effects of a real depreciation of the Euro on the French economy. Our Micro-Macro model consists of a microsimulation model and a CGE model which are integrated using an iterative approach. We find that a 10% real depreciation of the Euro stimulates the aggregate demand by increasing exports and reducing imports, which increases real GDP by 0.7% and reduces the unemployment rate in the economy by 2 percentage points. At the individual level, we find that the macroeconomic shock reduces poverty and, to a lesser extent, income inequality. In particular, the decrease in the equilibrium real wage slightly reduces disposable income for the employed, while the reduction of unemployment substantially increases disposable income of people who find a job, often bringing them out of poverty.

Il modello Meg-Ismea per l'analisi delle politiche agricole

The Meg-Ismea Model for Analysis of Italy’s Agricultural Policies - The ai of this study isanalysis of the Meg-Ismea general economic equilibrium model for the Italian economy constructed in order to evaluate the impacts of agriculture policies on the behaviour of economic agents and in particular on the welfare of households. The model was developed with a micro-macro approach that allows for micro and macro evaluation of impacts maintaining coherence between the aggregate behaviour of the representative agent and the heterogeneous behaviour of the agents in the market. The model has been validated by studying its behaviour with two experiments that assess ex ante the impact of hypothetical international trade and fiscal reforms on Italian agriculture.