Richard A. Erickson

Detecting the movement and spawning activity of bigheaded carps with environmental DNA

Bigheaded carps are invasive fishes threatening to invade the Great Lakes basin and establish spawning populations, and have been monitored using environmental DNA (eDNA). Not only does eDNA hold potential for detecting the presence of species, but may also allow for quantitative comparisons like relative abundance of species across time or space. We examined the relationships among bigheaded carp movement, hydrography, spawning and eDNA on the Wabash River, IN, USA. We found positive relationships between eDNA and movement and eDNA and hydrography. We did not find a relationship between eDNA and spawning activity in the form of drifting eggs. Our first finding demonstrates how eDNA may be used to monitor species abundance, whereas our second finding illustrates the need for additional research into eDNA methodologies. Current applications of eDNA are widespread, but the relatively new technology requires further refinement.

Assessing local population vulnerability with branching process models: an application to wind energy development

Quantifying the impact of anthropogenic development on local populations is important for conservation biology and wildlife management. However, these local populations are often subject to demographic stochasticity because of their small population size. Traditional modeling efforts such as population projection matrices do not consider this source of variation whereas individual-based models, which include demographic stochasticity, are computationally intense and lack analytical tractability. One compromise between approaches is branching process models because they accommodate demographic stochasticity and are easily calculated. These models are known within some sub-fields of probability and mathematical ecology but are not often applied in conservation biology and applied ecology. We applied branching process models to quantitatively compare and prioritize species locally vulnerable to the development of wind energy facilities. Specifically, we examined species vulnerability using branching process models for four representative species: A cave bat (a long-lived, low fecundity species), a tree bat (short-lived, moderate fecundity species), a grassland songbird (a short-lived, high fecundity species), and an eagle (a long-lived, slow maturation species). Wind turbine-induced mortality has been observed for all of these species types, raising conservation concerns. We simulated different mortality rates from wind farms while calculating local extinction probabilities. The longer-lived species types (e.g., cave bats and eagles) had much more pronounced transitions from low extinction risk to high extinction risk than short-lived species types (e.g., tree bats and grassland songbirds). High-offspring-producing species types had a much greater variability in baseline risk of extinction than the lower-offspring-producing species types. Long-lived species types may appear stable until a critical level of incidental mortality occurs. After this threshold, the risk of extirpation for a local population may rapidly increase with only minimal increases in wind mortality. Conservation biologists and wildlife managers may need to consider this mortality pattern when issuing take permits and developing monitoring protocols for wind facilities. We also describe how our branching process models may be generalized across a wider range of species for a larger assessment project and then describe how our methods may be applied to other stressors in addition to wind.

Organic contamination in tree swallow (Tachycineta bicolor) nestlings at United States and binational Great Lakes Areas of Concern

Contaminant exposure of tree swallows, Tachycineta bicolor, nesting in 27 Areas of Concern (AOCs) in the Great Lakes basin was assessed from 2010 to 2014 to assist managers and regulators in their assessments of Great Lakes AOCs. Contaminant concentrations in nestlings from AOCs were compared with those in nestlings from nearby non-AOC sites. Polychlorinated biphenyl (PCB) and polybrominated diphenyl ether concentrations in tree swallow nestling carcasses at 30% and 33% of AOCs, respectively, were below the mean concentration for non-AOCs. Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon (PAH) concentrations in nestling stomach contents and perfluorinated compound concentrations in nestling plasma at 67% and 64% of AOCs, respectively, were below the mean concentration for non-AOCs. Concentrations of PCBs in nestling carcasses were elevated at some AOCs but modest compared with highly PCB-contaminated sites where reproductive effects have been documented. Concentrations of PAHs in diet were sufficiently elevated at some AOCs to elicit a measurable physiological response. Among AOCs, concentrations of the perfluorinated compound perfluorooctane sulfonate in plasma were the highest on the River Raisin (MI, USA; geometric mean 330 ng/mL) but well below an estimated toxicity reference value (1700 ng/mL). Both PAH and PCB concentrations in nestling stomach contents and PCBs in carcasses were significantly correlated with concentrations in sediment previously reported, thereby reinforcing the utility of tree swallows to assess bioavailability of sediment contamination. Environ Toxicol Chem 2017;36:735-748. Published 2016 Wiley Periodicals Inc. on behalf of SETAC. This article is a US government work and, as such, is in the public domain in the United States of America.

Monarch butterfly population decline in North America: identifying the threatening processes

The monarch butterfly (Danaus plexippus) population in North America has sharply declined over the last two decades. Despite rising concern over the monarch butterflys status, no comprehensive study of the factors driving this decline has been conducted. Using partial least-squares regressions and time-series analysis, we investigated climatic and habitat-related factors influencing monarch population size from 1993 to 2014. Potential threats included climatic factors, habitat loss (milkweed and overwinter forest), disease and agricultural insecticide use (neonicotinoids). While climatic factors, principally breeding season temperature, were important determinants of annual variation in abundance, our results indicated strong negative relationships between population size and habitat loss variables, principally glyphosate use, but also weaker negative effects from the loss of overwinter forest and breeding season use of neonicotinoids. Further declines in population size because of glyphosate application are not expected. Thus, if remaining threats to habitat are mitigated we expect climate-induced stochastic variation of the eastern migratory population of monarch butterfly around a relatively stationary population size.

Effects of wind energy generation and white-nose syndrome on the viability of the Indiana bat

Wind energy generation holds the potential to adversely affect wildlife populations. Species-wide effects are difficult to study and few, if any, studies examine effects of wind energy generation on any species across its entire range. One species that may be affected by wind energy generation is the endangered Indiana bat (Myotis sodalis), which is found in the eastern and midwestern United States. In addition to mortality from wind energy generation, the species also faces range-wide threats from the emerging infectious fungal disease, white-nose syndrome (WNS). White-nose syndrome, caused by Pseudogymnoascus destructans, disturbs hibernating bats leading to high levels of mortality. We used a spatially explicit full-annual-cycle model to investigate how wind turbine mortality and WNS may singly and then together affect population dynamics of this species. In the simulation, wind turbine mortality impacted the metapopulation dynamics of the species by causing extirpation of some of the smaller winter colonies. In general, effects of wind turbines were localized and focused on specific spatial subpopulations. Conversely, WNS had a depressive effect on the species across its range. Wind turbine mortality interacted with WNS and together these stressors had a larger impact than would be expected from either alone, principally because these stressors together act to reduce species abundance across the spectrum of population sizes. Our findings illustrate the importance of not only prioritizing the protection of large winter colonies as is currently done, but also of protecting metapopulation dynamics and migratory connectivity.

A Stage-Structured, Spatially Explicit Migration Model for Myotis Bats: Mortality location affects system dynamics

Abstract Bats are ecologically and economically important species because they consume insects, transport nutrients, and pollinate flowers. Many species of bats, including those in the Myotis genus, are facing population decline and increased extinction risk. Despite these conservation concerns, few models exist for providing insight into the population dynamics of bats in a spatially explicit context. We developed a model for bats by considering the stage-structured colonial life history of Myotis bats with their annual migration behavior. This model provided insight into network dynamics. We specifically focused on two Myotis species living in the eastern United States: the Indiana bat (M. sodalis), which is a Federally listed endangered species, and the little brown bat (M. lucifugus), which is under consideration for listing as an endangered species. We found that multiple equilibria exist for the local, migratory subpopulations even though the total population was constant. These equilibria suggest the location and magnitude of stressors such as White-nose Syndrome, meteorological phenomena, or impacts of wind turbines on survival influence system dynamics and risk of population extirpation in difficult to predict ways.

Estimating the per-capita contribution of habitats and pathways in a migratory network: a modelling approach

Every year, migratory species undertake seasonal movements along different pathways between discrete regions and habitats. The ability to assess the relative demographic contributions of these different habitats and pathways to the species’ overall population dynamics is critical for understanding the ecology of migratory species, and also has practical applications to management and conservation. Metrics for assessing habitat contributions have been well-developed for metapopulations, but an equivalent metric is not currently available for migratory populations. Here, we develop a framework for estimating the demographic contributions of the discrete habitats and pathways used by migratory species throughout the annual cycle by estimating the per capita contribution of cohorts using these locations. Our framework accounts for seasonal movements between multiple breeding and nonbreeding habitats and for both resident and migratory cohorts. We illustrate our framework using a hypothetical migratory network of four habitats, which allows us to better understand how variations in habitat quality affect per capita contributions. Results indicate that per capita contributions for any habitat or pathway are dependent on habitat-specific survival probabilities in all other areas used as part of the migratory circuit, and that contribution metrics are spatially linked (e.g. reduced survival in one habitat also decreases the contribution metric for other habitats). Our framework expands existing theory on the dynamics of spatiotemporally structured populations by developing a generalized approach to estimate the habitat- and pathway-specific contributions of species migrating between multiple breeding and multiple non-breeding habitats for a range of life histories or migratory strategies. Most importantly, it provides a means of prioritizing conservation efforts towards those migratory pathways and habitats that are most critical for the population viability of migratory species. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

BatTool: an R package with GUI for assessing the effect of White-nose syndrome and other take events on Myotis spp. of bats

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1186/1751-0473-9-9.].

eDNAoccupancy: An R Package for Multi‐scale Occupancy Modeling of Environmental DNA Data

In this article, we describe ednaoccupancy, an r package for fitting Bayesian, multiscale occupancy models. These models are appropriate for occupancy surveys that include three nested levels of sampling: primary sample units within a study area, secondary sample units collected from each primary unit and replicates of each secondary sample unit. This design is commonly used in occupancy surveys of environmental DNA (eDNA). ednaoccupancy allows users to specify and fit multiscale occupancy models with or without covariates, to estimate posterior summaries of occurrence and detection probabilities, and to compare different models using Bayesian model‐selection criteria. We illustrate these features by analysing two published data sets: eDNA surveys of a fungal pathogen of amphibians and eDNA surveys of an endangered fish species.

Defining and classifying migratory habitats as sources and sinks: The migratory pathway approach

Understanding and conserving migratory species requires a method for characterizing the seasonal flow of animals among habitats. Source-sink theory describes the metapopulation dynamics of species by classifying habitats as population sources (i.e. net contributors) or sinks (i.e. net substractors). Migratory species may have non-breeding habitats important to the species (e.g. overwintering or stopover habitats) that traditional source-sink theory would classify as sinks because these habitats produce no individuals. Conversely, existing migratory network models can evaluate the relative contribution of non-breeding nodes, but these models make an equilibrium assumption that is difficult to meet when examining real migratory populations. We extend a pathway-based metric allowing breeding habitats, non-breeding habitats and migratory pathways connecting these habitats to be classified as sources or sinks. Rather than being based on whether place- or season-specific births exceed deaths, our approach quantifies the total demographic contribution from a node or migratory pathway over a flexibly defined yet limited time period across an organisms life cycle. As such, it provides a snapshot of a migratory system and therefore does not require assumptions associated with equilibrium dynamics. We first develop a generalizable mathematical notation and then demonstrate how the metric may be used with two case studies: the common loon (Gavia immer) and Yellowstone cutthroat trout (Oncorhynchus clarkii bouvieri). These examples highlight how stressors can impact stopover and wintering habitats (loons) and habitat management targeting migratory pathways can improve population status (trout). Synthesis and applications. Each of the two case studies presented describes how effects at one location are felt by populations in another through the seasonal flow of individuals. The contribution metric we present should be helpful in allocating regulatory and management attention to times and locations most critical to migratory species persistence.