Richard Atkinson

Short-term effects of particulate air pollution on cardiovascular diseases in eight European cities

Study objective: As part of the APHEA project this study examined the association between airborne particles and hospital admissions for cardiac causes (ICD9 390–429) in eight European cities (Barcelona, Birmingham, London, Milan, the Netherlands, Paris, Rome, and Stockholm). All admissions were studied, as well as admissions stratified by age. The association for ischaemic heart disease (ICD9 410–413) and stroke (ICD9 430–438) was also studied, also stratified by age. Design: Autoregressive Poisson models were used that controlled for long term trend, season, influenza epidemics, and meteorology to assess the short-term effects of particles in each city. The study also examined confounding by other pollutants. City specific results were pooled in a second stage regression to obtain more stable estimates and examine the sources of heterogeneity. Main results: The pooled percentage increases associated with a 10 μg/m3 increase in PM10 and black smoke were respectively 0.5% (95% CI: 0.2 to 0.8) and 1.1% (95% CI: 0.4 to 1.8) for cardiac admissions of all ages, 0.7% (95% CI: 0.4 to 1.0) and 1.3% (95% CI: 0.4 to 2.2) for cardiac admissions over 65 years, and, 0.8% (95% CI: 0.3 to 1.2) and 1.1% (95% CI: 0.7 to 1.5) for ischaemic heart disease over 65 years. The effect of PM10 was little changed by control for ozone or SO2, but was substantially reduced (CO) or eliminated (NO2) by control for other traffic related pollutants. The effect of black smoke remained practically unchanged controlling for CO and only somewhat reduced controlling for NO2. Conclusions: These effects of particulate air pollution on cardiac admissions suggest the primary effect is likely to be mainly attributable to diesel exhaust. Results for ischaemic heart disease below 65 years and for stroke over 65 years were inconclusive.

Black carbon as an additional indicator of the adverse health effects of airborne particles compared with PM10 and PM2.5.

Background: Current air quality standards for particulate matter (PM) use the PM mass concentration [PM with aerodynamic diameters ≤ 10 μm (PM10) or ≤ 2.5 μm (PM2.5)] as a metric. It has been suggested that particles from combustion sources are more relevant to human health than are particles from other sources, but the impact of policies directed at reducing PM from combustion processes is usually relatively small when effects are estimated for a reduction in the total mass concentration. Objectives: We evaluated the value of black carbon particles (BCP) as an additional indicator in air quality management. Methods: We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis of health effects of BCP compared with PM mass based on data from time-series studies and cohort studies that measured both exposures. We compared the potential health benefits of a hypothetical traffic abatement measure, using near-roadway concentration increments of BCP and PM2.5 based on data from prior studies. Results: Estimated health effects of a 1-μg/m3 increase in exposure were greater for BCP than for PM10 or PM2.5, but estimated effects of an interquartile range increase were similar. Two-pollutant models in time-series studies suggested that the effect of BCP was more robust than the effect of PM mass. The estimated increase in life expectancy associated with a hypothetical traffic abatement measure was four to nine times higher when expressed in BCP compared with an equivalent change in PM2.5 mass. Conclusion: BCP is a valuable additional air quality indicator to evaluate the health risks of air quality dominated by primary combustion particles.

Prevalence, detection, and management of cardiovascular risk factors in different ethnic groups in south London.

Objective To assess the prevalence of cardiovascular risk factors and their level of detection and management in three ethnic groups. Design Population based survey during 1994 to 1996. Setting Former Wandsworth Health Authority in South London. Subjects 1578 men and women, aged 40 to 59 years; 524 white, 549 of African descent, and 505 of South Asian origin. Main outcome measures Age adjusted prevalence of hypertension, diabetes, obesity, raised serum cholesterol, and smoking. Results Ethnic minorities of both sexes had raised prevalence rates of hypertension and diabetes compared to white people. Age and sex standardised prevalence ratios for hypertension were 2.6 (95% confidence interval 2.1 to 3.2) in people of African descent and 1.8 (1.4 to 2.3) in those of South Asian origin. For diabetes, the ratios were 2.7 (1.8 to 4.0) in people of African descent and 3.8 (2.6 to 5.6) in those of South Asian origin. Hypertension and diabetes were equally common among Caribbeans and West Africans and among South Asian Hindus and Muslims. Prevalence of severe obesity was high overall, but particularly among women of African descent (40% (35% to 45%)). In contrast, raised serum cholesterol and smoking rates were higher among white people. Of hypertensives, 49% (216 of 442) had adequate blood pressure control. Overall, 18% (80 of 442) of hypertensives and 33% (62 of 188) of diabetics were undetected before our survey. Hypertensive subjects of African descent appeared more likely to have been detected (p = 0.034) but less likely to be adequately managed (p = 0.085). Conclusions Hypertension and diabetes are raised two- to threefold in South Asians, Caribbeans, and West Africans in Britain. Detection, management, and control of hypertension has improved, but there are still differences between ethnic groups. Obesity is above the Health of the Nation targets in all ethnic groups, particularly in women of African descent. Preventive and treatment strategies for different ethnic groups in Britain need to consider both cultural differences and underlying susceptibility to different vascular diseases.

The impact of heat waves on mortality in 9 European cities: results from the EuroHEAT project

BackgroundThe present study aimed at developing a standardized heat wave definition to estimate and compare the impact on mortality by gender, age and death causes in Europe during summers 1990-2004 and 2003, separately, accounting for heat wave duration and intensity.MethodsHeat waves were defined considering both maximum apparent temperature and minimum temperature and classified by intensity, duration and timing during summer. The effect was estimated as percent increase in daily mortality during heat wave days compared to non heat wave days in people over 65 years. City specific and pooled estimates by gender, age and cause of death were calculated.ResultsThe effect of heat waves showed great geographical heterogeneity among cities. Considering all years, except 2003, the increase in mortality during heat wave days ranged from + 7.6% in Munich to + 33.6% in Milan. The increase was up to 3-times greater during episodes of long duration and high intensity. Pooled results showed a greater impact in Mediterranean (+ 21.8% for total mortality) than in North Continental (+ 12.4%) cities. The highest effect was observed for respiratory diseases and among women aged 75-84 years. In 2003 the highest impact was observed in cities where heat wave episode was characterized by unusual meteorological conditions.ConclusionsClimate change scenarios indicate that extreme events are expected to increase in the future even in regions where heat waves are not frequent. Considering our results prevention programs should specifically target the elderly, women and those suffering from chronic respiratory disorders, thus reducing the impact on mortality.

Impact of hot temperatures on death in London: a time series approach

Study objective: This study investigated the relation between heat and mortality in London to determine the temperature threshold at which death rates increase and to quantify the effect of extreme temperatures on mortality. Design: Daily data on all cause mortality and temperature were obtained for a 21 year period and the relation between them investigated both graphically and by using non-parametric time series methods of analysis. Setting: Greater London. Participants: Daily mortality counts in Greater London between January 1976 and December 1996. Main results: A plot of the basic mortality-temperature relation suggested that a rise in heat related deaths began at about 19°C. Average temperatures above the 97th centile value of 21.5°C (excluding those days from a 15 day “heatwave” period in 1976) resulted in an increase in deaths of 3.34% (95% CI 2.47% to 4.23%) for every one degree increase in average temperature above this value. It was found that the 1976 heatwave resulted in a particularly large number of deaths in comparison with other hot periods. Conclusions: These results suggest that heat related deaths in London may begin at relatively low temperatures. Hot days occurring in the early part of any year may have a larger effect than those occurring later on; and analysis of separate heatwave periods suggest that episodes of long duration and of highest temperature have the largest mortality effect.

Public health benefits of strategies to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions: health implications of short-lived greenhouse pollutants

In this report we review the health effects of three short-lived greenhouse pollutants-black carbon, ozone, and sulphates. We undertook new meta-analyses of existing time-series studies and an analysis of a cohort of 352,000 people in 66 US cities during 18 years of follow-up. This cohort study provides estimates of mortality effects from long-term exposure to elemental carbon, an indicator of black carbon mass, and evidence that ozone exerts an independent risk of mortality. Associations among these pollutants make drawing conclusions about their individual health effects difficult at present, but sulphate seems to have the most robust effects in multiple-pollutant models. Generally, the toxicology of the pure compounds and their epidemiology diverge because atmospheric black carbon, ozone, and sulphate are associated and could interact with related toxic species. Although sulphate is a cooling agent, black carbon and ozone could together exert nearly half as much global warming as carbon dioxide. The complexity of these health and climate effects needs to be recognised in mitigation policies.

Daily concentrations of air pollution and plasma fibrinogen in London

OBJECTIVES The reason for the association between air pollution and risk of cardiovascular diseases is unknown. The hypothesis was examined that daily concentrations of air pollution are associated with daily concentrations of fibrinogen, a risk factor for cardiovascular disease. METHODS Data on concentrations of plasma fibrinogen for 4982 male and 2223 female office workers, collected in a cross sectional survey in London between September 1991 and May 1993, were combined with data on concentrations of air pollution during the day of blood sampling and during the 3 preceding days. RESULTS After adjustment for weather and other confounding factors, an increase in the 24 hour mean NO2 during the previous day from the 10th to the 90th percentile (61.7 μg/m3) was associated with a 1.5% (95% confidence interval (95% CI) 0.4% to 2.5%) higher fibrinogen concentration. The respective increase for CO (1.6 mg/m3) was 1.5% (95% CI 0.5%, 2.5%). These associations tended to be stronger in the warm season (April to September). Significant associations were found for black smoke and particulate matter of diameter 10 μm (PM10) only in the warm season. No association with fibrinogen was found for SO2 or ozone. CONCLUSIONS The short term association between air pollution, possibly from traffic, and risk of cardiovascular events may be at least partly mediated through increased concentrations of plasma fibrinogen, possibly due to an inflammatory reaction caused by air pollution.

Epidemiological time series studies of PM2.5 and daily mortality and hospital admissions: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Background Short-term exposure to outdoor fine particulate matter (particles with a median aerodynamic diameter <2.5 μm (PM2.5)) air pollution has been associated with adverse health effects. Existing literature reviews have been limited in size and scope. Methods We conducted a comprehensive, systematic review and meta-analysis of 110 peer-reviewed time series studies indexed in medical databases to May 2011 to assess the evidence for associations between PM2.5 and daily mortality and hospital admissions for a range of diseases and ages. We stratified our analyses by geographical region to determine the consistency of the evidence worldwide and investigated small study bias. Results Based upon 23 estimates for all-cause mortality, a 10 µg/m3 increment in PM2.5 was associated with a 1.04% (95% CI 0.52% to 1.56%) increase in the risk of death. Worldwide, there was substantial regional variation (0.25% to 2.08%). Associations for respiratory causes of death were larger than for cardiovascular causes, 1.51% (1.01% to 2.01%) vs 0.84% (0.41% to 1.28%). Positive associations with mortality for most other causes of death and for cardiovascular and respiratory hospital admissions were also observed. We found evidence for small study bias in single-city mortality studies and in multicity studies of cardiovascular disease. Conclusions The consistency of the evidence for adverse health effects of short-term exposure to PM2.5 across a range of important health outcomes and diseases supports policy measures to control PM2.5 concentrations. However, reasons for heterogeneity in effect estimates in different regions of the world require further investigation. Small study bias should also be considered in assessing and quantifying health risks from PM2.5.

Daily time series for cardiovascular hospital admissions and previous day's air pollution in London, UK.

OBJECTIVE: To test for a significant association between air pollution and emergency hospital admissions for circulatory diseases (international classification of diseases-9 390-459) in London, England, that would be consistent with a causal effect of pollution on the previous day. METHODS: Long term concurrent trends, temperature, humidity, day of the week, influenza epidemic of 1989, and cyclical covariations with periodicity > 20 days in daily measures of pollution and admissions for 1987-94 were allowed for. RESULTS: There were 373556 admissions. No association was found between O3 and circulatory diseases. Four other pollutants were associated with acute myocardial infarction and circulatory diseases combined. P values and attributable cases (95% confidence intervals) for acute myocardial infarction were: black smoke P = 0.003, 2.5% (0.8% to 4.3%); NO2 P = 0.002, 2.7% (0.8% to 4.6%); CO P = 0.001, 2.1% (0.7% to 3.5%); and SO2 P = 0.0006, 1.7% (0.7% to 2.6%). There were also associations between black smoke and angina (P = 0.02), NO2 and arrhythmia (P = 0.04), and CO and other circulatory diseases (P = 0.004), but none with heart failure. Acute myocardial infarction was the only diagnosis for which there were significant associations with and without adjustment for cyclical terms. The associations with acute myocardial infarction were significant only in the cool season. CONCLUSION: Population data were consistent with 1 in 50 heart attacks currently presenting at London hospitals being triggered by outdoor air pollution. Further research is now needed to investigate whether background concentrations of black smoke, NO2, CO, and SO2 are a preventable cause of myocardial infarction. These results, if applied to all myocardial infarctions in the United Kingdom, indicate a potential saving of 6000 heart attacks a year.

The temporal pattern of mortality responses to air pollution: a multicity assessment of mortality displacement.

Although the association between particulate matter and mortality or morbidity is generally accepted, controversy remains about the importance of the association. If it is due solely to the deaths of frail individuals, which are brought forward by only a brief period of time, the public health implications of the association are fewer than if there is an increase in the number of deaths. Recently, other research has addressed the mortality displacement issue in single-city analysis. We analyzed this issue with a distributed lag model in a multicity hierarchic modeling approach, within the Air Pollution and Health: A European Approach (APHEA-2) study. We fit a Poisson regression model and a polynomial distributed lag model with up to 40 days of delay in each city. In the second stage we combined the city-specific results. We found that the overall effect of particulate matter less than 10 &mgr;M in aerodynamic diameter (PM10) per 10 &mgr;g/m3 for the fourth-degree distributed lag model is a 1.61% increase in daily deaths (95% CI = 1.02–2.20), whereas the mean of PM10 on the same day and the previous day is associated with only a 0.70% increase in deaths (95% CI = 0.43–0.97). This result is unchanged using an unconstrained distributed lag model. Our study confirms that the effects observed in daily time-series studies are not due primarily to short-term mortality displacement. The effect size estimate for airborne particles more than doubles when we consider longer-term effects, which has important implications for risk assessment.