Richard G. Taylor

Quantitative maps of groundwater resources in Africa

In Africa, groundwater is the major source of drinking water and its use for irrigation is forecast to increase substantially to combat growing food insecurity. Despite this, there is little quantitative information on groundwater resources in Africa, and groundwater storage is consequently omitted from assessments of freshwater availability. Here we present the first quantitative continent-wide maps of aquifer storage and potential borehole yields in Africa based on an extensive review of available maps, publications and data. We estimate total groundwater storage in Africa to be 0.66 million km 3 (0.36‐1.75 million km 3 ). Not all of this groundwater storage is available for abstraction, but the estimated volume is more than 100 times estimates of annual renewable freshwater resources on Africa. Groundwater resources are unevenly distributed: the largest groundwater volumes are found in the large sedimentary aquifers in the North African countries Libya, Algeria, Egypt and Sudan. Nevertheless, for many African countries appropriately sited and constructed boreholes can support handpump

Uncertainty in the estimation of potential evapotranspiration under climate change

21st century climate change is projected to result in an intensification of the global hydrological cycle, but there is substantial uncertainty in how this will impact freshwater availability. A relatively overlooked aspect of this uncertainty pertains to how different methods of estimating potential evapotranspiration (PET) respond to changing climate. Here we investigate the global response of six different PET methods to a 2 degrees C rise in global mean temperature. All methods suggest an increase in PET associated with a warming climate. However, differences in PET climate change signal of over 100% are found between methods. Analysis of a precipitation/PET aridity index and regional water surplus indicates that for certain regions and GCMs, choice of PET method can actually determine the direction of projections of future water resources. As such, method dependence of the PET climate change signal is an important source of uncertainty in projections of future freshwater availability. Citation: Kingston, D. G., M. C. Todd, R. G. Taylor, J. R. Thompson, and N. W. Arnell (2009), Uncertainty in the estimation of potential evapotranspiration under climate change, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L20403, doi: 10.1029/2009GL040267.

Microbial contamination of two urban sandstone aquifers in the UK

Development of urban groundwater has historically been constrained by concerns about its quality. Rising urban water tables and overabstraction from rural aquifers in the UK have led to a renewed interest in urban groundwater, particularly the possibility of finding water of acceptable quality at depth. This study assessed the microbial quality of groundwater collected from depth-specific intervals over a 15-month period within the Permo-Triassic Sherwood Sandstone aquifers underlying the cities of Nottingham and Birmingham. Sewage-derived bacteria (thermotolerant coliforms, faecal streptococci and sulphite-reducing clostridia) and viruses (enteroviruses, Norwalk-like viruses, coliphage) were regularly detected to depths of 60 m in the unconfined sandstone and to a depth of 91 m in the confined sandstone. Microbial concentrations varied temporally and spatially but increased frequency of contamination with depth coincided with geological heterogeneities such as fissures and mudstone bands. Significantly, detection of Norwalk-like viruses and Coxsackievirus B4 in groundwater corresponded with seasonal variations in virus discharge to the sewer system. The observation of low levels of sewage-derived microbial contaminants at depth in the Triassic Sandstone aquifer is explained by the movement of infinitesimal proportions of bulk (macroscopic) groundwater flow along preferential pathways (e.g., fissures, bedding planes). The existence of very high microbial populations at source (raw sewage) and their extremely low detection limits at the receptor (multilevel piezometer) enable these statistically extreme (microscopic) flows to be traced. Rapid penetration of microbial contaminants into sandstone aquifers, not previously reported, highlights the vulnerability of sandstone aquifers to microbial contamination.

The implications of groundwater velocity variations on microbial transport and wellhead protection – review of field evidence

Current strategies to protect groundwater sources from microbial contamination (e.g., wellhead protection areas) rely upon natural attenuation of microorganisms between wells or springs and potential sources of contamination and are determined using average (macroscopic) groundwater flow velocities defined by Darcys Law. However, field studies of sewage contamination and microbial transport using deliberately applied tracers provide evidence of groundwater flow paths that permit the transport of microorganisms by rapid, statistically extreme velocities. These paths can be detected because of (i) the high concentrations of bacteria and viruses that enter near-surface environments in sewage or are deliberately applied as tracers (e.g., bacteriophage); and (ii) low detection limits of these microorganisms in water. Such paths must comprise linked microscopic pathways (sub-paths) that are biased toward high groundwater velocities. In media where microorganisms may be excluded from the matrix (pores and fissures), the disparity between the average linear velocity of groundwater flow and flow velocities transporting released or applied microorganisms is intensified. It is critical to recognise the limited protection afforded by source protection measures that disregard rapid, statistically extreme groundwater velocities transporting pathogenic microorganisms, particularly in areas dependent upon untreated groundwater supplies.

Groundwater recharge in the Victoria Nile basin of east Africa: support for the soil moisture balance approach using stable isotope tracers and flow modelling

Across equatorial Africa, increasing demand for groundwater has raised concerns about resource sustainability and has highlighted the need for reliable estimates of groundwater recharge. Recharge investigations in this environment are typically inhibited by a shortage of good quality meteorological and hydrogeological records. Moreover, when recharge studies are attempted they tend to rely on a single technique and frequently lack corroborating evidence to substantiate recharge predictions. In recent studies undertaken in the Aroca catchment of the Victoria Nile basin in central Uganda, the timing and magnitude of recharge determined by a soil moisture balance approach are supported by stable isotope data and groundwater flow modelling. The soil moisture balance study reveals that recharge averages in the order of 200 mm year−1 and is more dependent on the number of heavy (more than 10 turn day−1) rainfall events than the total annual volume of rainfall. Stable isotope data suggest independently that recharge occurs during the heaviest rains of the monsoons, and further establish that recharge stems entirely from the direct infiltration of rainfall, an assumption implicit in the soil moisture balance approach. Deforestation over the last 30 years is shown to have more than doubled the recharge estimate. Aquifer flow modelling supports the recharge estimates but demonstrates that the vast majority (over 99%) of recharging waters must be transmitted by the aquifer in the regolith rather the underlying bedrock fractures which have traditionally been developed for rural water supplies.

Rainfall intensity and groundwater recharge: empirical evidence from the Upper Nile Basin

Changes in the intensity of precipitation as a result of global warming are expected to be especially pronounced in the tropics. The impact of changing rainfall intensities on groundwater recharge remains, however, unclear. Analysis of a recently compiled data set of coincidental, daily observations of rainfall and groundwater levels remote from abstraction for four stations in the Upper Nile Basin over the period 1999?2008 shows that the magnitude of observed recharge events is better related to the sum of heavy rainfalls, exceeding a threshold of 10?mm?day?1, than to that of all daily rainfall events. Consequently, projected increases in rainfall intensities as a result of global warming may promote rather than restrict groundwater recharge in similar environments of the tropics. Further monitoring and research are required to test the robustness of these findings, but the evidence presented is consistent with recent modelling highlighting the importance of explicitly considering changing rainfall intensities in the assessment of climate change impacts on groundwater recharge.

The impact of climate change on groundwater recharge and runoff in a humid, equatorial catchment: sensitivity of projections to rainfall intensity

Abstract Projected warming in equatorial Africa, accompanied by greater evaporation and more frequent heavy precipitation events, may have substantial but uncertain impacts on terrestrial hydrology. Quantitative analyses of climate change impacts on catchment hydrology require high-resolution (<50 km) climate data provided by regional climate models (RCMs). We apply validated precipitation and temperature data from the RCM PRECIS (Providing Regional Climates for Impact Studies) to a semi-distributed soil moisture balance model (SMBM) in order to quantify the impacts of climate change on groundwater recharge and runoff in a medium-sized catchment (2098 km2) in the humid tropics of southwestern Uganda. The SMBM explicitly accounts for changes in soil moisture, and partitions effective precipitation into groundwater recharge and runoff. Under the A2 emissions scenario (2070–2100), climate projections from PRECIS feature not only rises in catchment precipitation and modelled potential evapotranspiration by 14% and 53%, respectively, but also increases in rainfall intensity. We show that the common application of the historical rainfall distribution using delta factors to the SMBM grossly underestimates groundwater recharge (i.e. 55% decrease relative to the baseline period of 1961–1990). By transforming the rainfall distribution to account for changes in rainfall intensity, we project increases in recharge and runoff of 53% and 137%, respectively, relative to the baseline period.

Post-palaeozoic evolution of weathered landsurfaces in Uganda by tectonically controlled deep weathering and stripping

A model for the evolution of weathered landsurfaces in Uganda is developed using available geotectonic, climatic, sedimentological and chronological data. The model demonstrates the pivotal role of tectonic uplift in inducing cycles of stripping, and tectonic quiescence for cycles of deep weathering. It is able to account for the development of key landforms, such as inselbergs and duricrust-capped plateaux, which previous hypotheses of landscape evolution that are based on climatic or eustatic controls are unable to explain. Development of the Ugandan landscape is traced back to the Permian. Following late Palaeozoic glaciation, a trend towards warmer and more humid climates through the Mesozoic enabled deep weathering of the Jurassic/mid-Cretaceous surface in Uganda during a period of prolonged tectonic quiescence. Uplift associated with the opening South Atlantic Ocean terminated this cycle and instigated a cycle of stripping between the mid-Cretaceous and early Miocene. Deep weathering on the succeeding Miocene to recent (African) surface has occurred from Miocene to present but has been interrupted in the areas adjacent to the western rift where development of a new drainage base level has prompted cycles of stripping in the Miocene and Pleistocene.

Lithological evidence for the evolution of weathered mantles in Uganda by tectonically controlled cycles of deep weathering and stripping

Abstract Landscape evolution in terrains that have been unaffected by glacial or aeolian erosion, occurs by cycles of deep weathering and stripping. Several factors have been proposed to control these cycles including sea level, climate and tectonics. In this study, a tectonic model of landscape evolution recently developed for Uganda, was tested by detailed study of the weathered mantle. The study involved an analysis of weathered-mantle stratigraphy, texture, mineralogy and elemental geochemistry, and was conducted in two catchments of central and southwestern Uganda which feature contrasting geomorphic processes (deep weathering and stripping) and different (post mid-Miocene) evolutionary histories. Application of graphical (sedimentological) logs to weathered-mantle stratigraphy is introduced in this work and represents an improvement upon more subjective classification schemes employed previously. The stratigraphy, texture, mineralogy and elemental geochemistry of the weathered mantle support cycles of deep weathering and stripping predicted by the tectonic model of landscape evolution. In central Uganda, deep weathering of the landsurface as a result of tectonic quiescence since the mid-Miocene is indicated by thick (30 m) weathered profiles that result from prolonged chemical denudation. This is evident from the progressive alteration of crystalline rock from relatively unweathered bedrock fragments at the base of the profile to a ferricrete crust at the top. Lithological evidence indicates that the weathered mantle has developed in situ and that the water table separates environments of different weathering intensity. In southwestern Uganda, stripping of the landsurface following mid-Pleistocene uplift is reflected by thinner, truncated weathered profiles that are not capped by ferricrete and are composed primarily of coarser, less weathered material.

Groundwater and climate in Africa—a review

RICHARD G. TAYLOR, ANTONIS D. KOUSSIS & CALLIST TINDIMUGAYA 1 Department of Geography, University College London, Gower Street, London WC1E 6BT, UK r.taylor@geog,.ucl.ac.uk 2 Institute for Environmental Research, National Observatory of Athens, I. Metaxa & Vassileos Pavlou, GR-152 36 Palaia Penteli, Athens, Greece akoussis@meteo.noa.gr 3 Directorate of Water Resources Management, Ministry of Water & Environment, PO Box 19, Entebbe, Uganda callist.tindimugaya@mwe.go.ug