Richard Heaney

Deviations and mean reversion to purchasing power parity in the Asian currency crisis of 1997

This study analyses the process of mean reversion towards purchasing power parity (PPP) for a sample of Asian countries around the 1997 crisis. It is found that appreciation relative to PPP is evident prior to the 1997 crash period. Correction occurs from 1997 onwards, a period marked by extreme movements in exchange rates with both appreciation and depreciation relative to the PPP rate over relatively short periods. The key result of this paper is that although reversion towards PPP is apparent for mean, though not statistically significant, it is clear that there is a substantial, statistically significant change in variance from 1997 onwards. This result has implications both for economic modelling of crash periods and for appropriate choice of statistical tests.

Discussions on long-term financial choice

We analyse focus group discussions about long-run (retirement) financial decisions, and explore the extent to which participant responses are related to the oft-used behavioural explanations of financial choice. We find that persons of all ages understand the importance of long-term savings, but face many challenges in preparing for retirement. There is mixed support for a range of associated behavioural explanations. Complexity, relevance of decisions, and uncertainty come up repeatedly in all focus groups, irrespective of the age of the participants. The use of heuristics, confidence, costs of mistakes, mental accounting, and the importance of social interaction appeared of less immediate relevance to all groups. We discuss the implications of these findings for how the financial services and superannuation industries communicate with members. There appears to be a general view from the focus groups that breaking large, complex retirement decisions into more manageable pieces (based on personal circumstances) and providing more focused and relevant information to investors would result in more effort and care expended on retirement decisions.

Share market reaction to the BP oil spill and the US government moratorium on exploration

The shares of BP plc and its subcontractors were rocked when the financial markets discovered the true impact of the Deepwater Horizon explosion as reported in the Wall Street Journal on 22 April 2010. While we track the impact of the disaster on share prices of the key participants, perhaps the most damaging response to the disaster was the introduction of the Gulf oil exploration moratorium on deep water drilling. We find that this adversely affected a range of firms in the oil and gas industry, extending the economic impact of the disaster well beyond BP plc and its subcontractors.

Do Past Performance and Past Cash Flows Explain Current Cash Flows into Retail Superannuation Funds in Australia

This paper examines the link between current-quarter cash flows and both past performance and past cash flows using a sample of Australian retail superannuation fund data (managed growth and managed stable) drawn from the period 1994 to 2000. This is a rapidly growing sector within the superannuation industry and it reflects investment behaviour of smaller investors rather than institutions and large corporations. Using both the Gruber (1996) approach and panel-data analysis we find a positive relationship between past performance and current-quarter cash flows as well as evidence of persistence in cash flows over time. Panel-data analysis also identifies a positive relationship between current net cash flows and past performance and cash inflows as well as a negative relationship between current net cash flows and past outflows. Market-wide growth in the retail superannuation sector over the study period does not appear to be driving these results.

Time-Changing Alpha? The Case of Australian International Mutual Funds

Tests for active management inevitably focus on long periods. Yet, implicit in these tests is the assumption that active management generates a stable excess return. We argue that this assumption is not appropriate for active management where the emphasis is on identifying profitable trading strategies. Consistent with this conjecture, we find evidence of time-changing alpha using a sample of Australian international funds over the period from July 1995 to January 2005. Regardless, few international funds show consistent positive excess returns over the period.

Are two heads better than one? An experiment with novice share traders

We compare the performance of individual and two-person teams in an electronic share-trading task. Trader profits are negatively related to the amount of trader market activity and positively related to trader confidence. While we find no evidence of a difference in trading profit between individual and team traders, profit volatility is more sensitive to trading activity for teams. Team trading profit is positively related to attitude and negatively related to perceptions of the difficulty of the task, with overall team trading activity negatively related to views of team members’ abilities. JEL Code: D44, G14

Individual Investor Portfolio Performance in Retirement Savings Accounts

We analyse the investment performance of a large sample of individuals investing in discretionary superannuation products offered by a large Australian financial institution. We do not find gender differences as has previously been reported but we do find evidence of a negative relationship between investor age and performance. Those residing in wealthier postcodes perform better. In terms of investment characteristics, wholesale investors perform better whereas those who are the most active perform worse.

Using Decision Support to Manage the Influence of Cognitive Abilities on Share Trading Performance

Online share trading is no longer restricted to expert brokers; there is a diverse population of traders with varying abilities and experience. Decision making in this context can be sub-optimal and risky. This study investigates how performance varies with level of cognitive ability and speed of online trading, and whether a decision aid can overcome traders’ disadvantages. The study showed that novice traders with decision support consistently outperformed those without and that the decision aid mitigated the negative effects of higher decision-making speeds and lower cognitive ability. This adds to decision making under time pressure and behavioural finance literature.

The impact of undergraduate personal finance education on individual financial literacy, attitudes and intentions

Financial literacy education features prominently among the policy options available to improve personal financial decision‐making. Notwithstanding calls to expand delivery of financial literacy units at university level, such offerings are relatively rare with little evaluation. We provide an evaluation of the impact on financial literacy, financial attitudes and financial behaviour intentions of a semester unit in personal finance delivered to undergraduates at an Australian university, carefully controlling for confounding effects in the analysis. We report increases in objective and subjective financial literacy and an additional gender effect. Contrary to previous speculation, we do not find overconfidence as an associated outcome.

Investment portfolios and three dimensions of real estate investment: an Australian perspective

Abstract Real estate offers a range of investment alternatives for mutual funds including residential real estate, commercial real estate and units in listed real estate investment trusts (REITs). Our quarterly total return data spans the period from the 3rd quarter 1986 to the 3rd quarter 2009 using various combinations of the Australian All Ordinaries share price index and these three classes of real estate investment. Comparison of Sharpe and Sortino (downside risk) measures across a range of portfolios suggest that diversification benefits may be achieved through diversifying into real estate investment, particularly direct investment in residential real estate, given an initial exposure to the equity market.