Sirimon Treepongkaruna

An analysis of the determinants of bank ratings: comparison across ratings agencies

The recent Global Financial Crisis has focused our attention on the integrity of rating agencies. Often condemned for being too slow to act, rating agencies have been blamed during many financial crises. This impression opens some research questions addressed in this paper. What are the determinants of banks ratings? How do they differ across ratings agencies? This paper analyses the quantitative determinants of bank ratings, provided by Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch in the United Kingdom and Australia. The main finding is that quantitative factors that reflect asset quality, liquidity risk, capital adequacy and operating performance are the key determinants of bank ratings across the rating agencies. However, macroeconomic variables and market risk factors do not seem to be contributing factors in explaining bank ratings in either country.

Explaining Credit Ratings of Australian Companies-An Application of the Merton Model

This paper examines how the default likelihood indicator computed from the option-based model of Merton (1974) together with two default-related factors, namely firm size and book-to-market ratio, effectively explain credit ratings when compared to accounting ratios. Using Australian companies that are rated by Standard and Poors during 1992–2003 and ordered probit analysis we find that the market-based model is more informative in explaining credit ratings than the accounting-based model.

Determinants of Bond Spreads: Evidence from Credit Derivatives of Australian Firms

This paper investigates the determinants of credit spreads (levels and changes) via credit derivatives, using an Australian sample. We incorporate a number of different relationships to assess the contributions of various market-wide and firm-specific factors in determining levels, and changes in credit spreads, of corporate bonds. Using over-the-counter credit default swap (CDS) premium data as a proxy for the default risk of the entity, we find that both CDS and liquidity are priced into credit spreads, with liquidity explaining more credit spreads than credit risk (proxied using CDS premia) itself. We also find that a number of firm-specific and market-wide variables, namely, firm leverage, market-to-book ratio, market value, volatility, liquidity, the spot rate, the slope of the yield curve, the time to maturity of the underlying bond and the level and return on the All Ordinaries Index, are in many cases significant determinants of credit spreads. Finally, in additional robustness testing, a potential sample selection bias is accommodated via the Heckman ((1979) Sample selection bias as a specification error. Econometrica 47: 153–162) procedure.

Sovereign rating changes and realized volatility in Asian foreign exchange markets during the Asian crisis

This article explores the impacts of sovereign rating changes by multiple rating agencies on foreign exchange rate volatility during the Asian crisis. We extend the existing literature to explore the impacts of multiple agency sovereign rating changes on the realized volatility of foreign exchange markets. Our findings show that the rating downgrades are associated with increases in foreign exchange volatility, and that multiple downgrades lead to a much higher increase in volatility as compared to single downgrades. Our results demonstrate that rating downgrades are part of the important news for the national markets consistent with the analysis of contagion analysis in Baur and Fry (2006, 2009).

Do Trading Hours Affect Volatility Links in the Foreign Exchange Market

This paper explores whether volatility linkages exist at the intra-daily frequency in the foreign exchange market, and whether market trading hours affect volatility transmission. To answer these questions, we apply the Fleming, Kirby and Ostdiek model (1998) to 21 currency pairs using hourly data and allowing specific consideration to be given to the role of which market is open in driving volatility linkages. Our findings indicate that hourly volatility is less persistent than daily volatility. We also find that market trading hours play a different role in driving volatility linkages for major and non-major currencies. For major currency pairs, we find that simultaneous trading hours are not critical for the processing of information flow. However, for the other currency pairings volatility transmission is affected by which markets are open.

Pricing Bonds in the Australian Market

This paper provides an examination of term structure models in the Australian bond market. Specifically, we examine the comparative ability of various models to forecast at the short, medium and long ends of the yield curve. Overall, we find that model performance varies along the yield curve. Out-of-sample pricing tests show that most of the term structure models underprice a bond at the short and medium ends of the term structure and generally overprice bonds at the long end. Further, the level of mispricing is related to time-to-maturity, coupon payments and interest rate volatility. The results have implications for bond pricing in relatively illiquid markets like Australias.

Do Sovereign Re-Ratings Destabilize Equity Markets During Financial Crises?: New Evidence From Higher Return Moments

This study investigates the effects of S&Ps sovereign re-ratings on the higher moments of equity market returns over recent financial crises. Using a set of intraday stock market index prices and sovereign credit ratings for a sample of 36 countries that experienced sovereign rating changes over the period from 1996 to 2013, we find that the higher moments of stock market returns are significantly more responsive to sovereign re-ratings during financial crises, but the effects on stock markets are not the same across different financial crises. The effects during crises are, however, magnified for large downgrades and those that are associated with a loss of investment grade status. We find that there are asymmetric effects during financial crises in that downgrades are consistently more significant than upgrades in increasing realized volatility and realized kurtosis. Both upgrades and downgrades affect realized skewness in times of crises in the expected direction.

Explaining the Bid-Ask Spread in the Foreign Exchange Market: A Test of Alternate Models

This paper attempts to uncover the determinants of the dealer bid-ask spread in the foreign exchange market. Prior research has examined the Huang–Masulis model wherein the spread is modelled as a function of dealer competition and volatility. We first extend this model to a much larger set of quote data covering several currencies over five years. A more recent model of the bid-ask spread has been proposed (BSW) wherein the spread is modelled as a function of order-processing costs, inventory-holding costs, adverse selection and competition. This model has not previously been tested in the foreign exchange market and this study conducts such a test. We find general support for both models using individual currency samples and a pooled sample. Of note, we find strong evidence for the relevance of the inventory-holding premium on the size of the dealer bid-ask spread. To compare the two models we undertake out-of-sample forecasts of the spread and find evidence that favours the BSW model in the aggregated sample, while the evidence is mixed in relation to individual currencies.

A Re-Examination of the Empirical Performance of the Longstaff and Schwartz Two-Factor Term Structure Model Using Real Yield Data

In this study, we apply the Longstaff and Schwartz (1992) two-factor term structure model to real yields across eight countries. As such, we improve on many prior studies that have inappropriately tested this formulation using nominal yield data. We use the generalized method of moments to test the cross-sectional restrictions imposed by the Longstaff and Schwartz model, as well as the Cox–Ingersoll–Ross one-factor model. Further, we compare the forecasting ability from both models. Our findings support the superiority of the two-factor model. We confirm general reliability of prior research in this area, despite the unfortunate reliance on nominal data in such earlier tests.

Is there a Banking Risk Premium in the US Stock Market

This paper investigates whether there is a banking risk premium that helps explain the returns of US publicly listed firms. We assess this research question in the context of the CAPM and the Fama-French three-factor model. We use bank size to create the banking factor return (BNK) - the return on a mimicking portfolio that is long (short) big (small) banks. We find a positive premium for BNK and our analysis supports a risk-based interpretation, since the premium is priced. Our findings are notable since they point to a slight superiority of CAPM augmented by BNK over the counterpart that augments the Fama-French model with BNK.