Richard K. Lester

The regional dynamics of innovation: a comparative study of oil and gas industry development in Stavanger and Aberdeen

This paper reports on a comparative case study of the development of local innovation systems in two key gateways to the North Sea oil and gas province: the Stavanger region on the southwest coast of Norway and the Aberdeen region in northeast Scotland. These two regions provide an ideal setting for a matched pair comparison, since the global market conditions and local geotechnical environment within which they developed into ‘oil capitals’ are strikingly similar. Despite these similarities, the development of local technological and industrial capabilities followed different paths in the two locations. Yet these differences do not appear to have led to significant differences in industrial competitiveness. Although Stavanger and Aberdeen are characterised by very different local innovation systems, the available evidence suggests that outcomes have been similar along significant dimensions of industry performance.

China-U.S. cooperation to advance nuclear power

Mass-manufacturing and coordinated approvals are key With China having the largest fossil fuel CO2 emissions today and the United States being higher in per capita emissions (see related energy consumption in the first figure), these countries have a strong mutual interest in stabilizing climate and reducing air pollution. Yet even Germany, despite sizable subsidies of renewable energies, gets only a small fraction of energy from them (see the first figure). Historically the fastest growth of low-carbon power occurred during scale-up of national nuclear power programs (see the second figure). Some studies project that a doubling to quadrupling of nuclear energy output is required in the next few decades, along with a large expansion of renewable energy, in order to achieve deep cuts in fossil fuel use while meeting the growing global demand for affordable, reliable energy (1–4). In light of this large-scale energy and emissions picture, climate and nuclear energy experts from China and the United States convened (see Acknowledgments) to consider the potential of increased cooperation in developing advanced nuclear technologies.

The growth of nuclear power: drivers & constraints

are taking a fresh look at nuclear power. An important cause of what has come to be called the global nuclear renaissance is the prospect of severe disruptions to the earth’s climate brought about by continued increases in greenhouse gas emissions, primarily from the combustion of fossil fuels. Nuclear power occupies a unique position in the debate over global climate change as the only carbon-free energy source that is already contributing to world energy supplies on a large scale and that is also expandable with few inherent limits. These attributes are regularly highlighted by nuclear energy advocates and now, increasingly, by some formerly anti-nuclear activists, even as other environmentalists remain strongly opposed to this technology. The list of countries in which nuclear expansion is being either vigorously pursued or at least seriously considered is long. Several countries in Asia and Eastern Europe with active nuclear power programs have recently announced plans to accelerate those programs. The most important case is China, whose gargantuan appetite for coal caused it recently to overtake the United States as the world’s largest emitter of greenhouse gases. In anticipation of continued rapid economic growth and, to a lesser degree, to limit its fossil fuel consumption, last year the Chinese government announced its intention to double its previous target for nuclear power growth by the year 2020. Large numbers of new nuclear plants are also planned in South Korea, Japan, India, and Russia. Elsewhere, in countries where an earlier wave of nuclear development faltered years ago and the prospects for new nuclear construction have long seemed dim, the terms of the debate have shifted, in some cases dramatically. In Sweden, the government recently decided to overturn a ban on new nuclear power plant construction that had been in effect since 1980. The U.K. government has announced its support for a large program of new nuclear power plant construction. Other European countries, such as Italy, Spain, and Belgium, are reassessing their current approach to nuclear power. Even in Germany, where for many years of1⁄2cial policy has called for the phase-out of the country’s nuclear power program by 2020, there appear to be growing doubts about the advisability of that policy. In

Analytical approximations for the long-term decay behavior of spent fuel and high-level waste

Simple analytical approximations are presented that describe the radioactivity and radiogenic decay heat behavior of high-level wastes (HLWs) from various nuclear fuel cycles during the first 100,000 years of waste life. The correlations are based on detailed computations of HLW properties carried out with the isotope generation and depletion code ORIGEN 2. The ambiguities encountered in using simple comparisons of the hazards posed by HLWs and naturally occurring mineral deposits to establish the longevity requirements for geologic waste disposal schemes are discussed.

Comment on 'Commercialising University Research: The Oxford Model' (by Tim Cook, Raymond Dwek, and Baruch Blumberg)

This paper is a comment on Commercialising University Research: Threats and Opportunities - The Oxford Model by Tim Cook, Raymond Dwek, Baruch Blumberg and Tom Hockaday which can be found at: http://ssrn.com/abstract=2209145.

An improved environmental pathway model for assessing high-level waste repository risks.

An environmental pathway model useful for assessing the postclosure radiological risks from high-level waste repositories has been developed. The model describes more fully than its predecessors the long-term build-up of radionuclides in the biosphere and is consequently better suited to the analysis of the prolonged radionuclide releases potentially associated with geologic waste repositories. The effect of incorporating the additional features is to alter, in some cases substantially, the predicted population risks associated with a given long-term release of particular radionuclides. The model has been used to evaluate certain assumptions underlying the environmental standard for high-level waste repositories recently issued by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.

Nuclear power: Deployment speed—Response

We agree with Johnstone et al. s call to give “balanced consideration to a full range of alternative low-carbon energy options” to address climate change. Unlike Johnstone et al. , we believe that a balanced portfolio includes the investment of modest fractions of current energy research,

Impact of thermal constraints on the optimal design of high-level waste repositories in geologic media

Abstract An approximate, semi-analytical heat conduction model for predicting the time-dependent temperature distribution in the region of a high-level waste repository has been developed. The model provides the basis for a systematic, inexpensive examination of the impact of several independent thermal design constraints on key repository design parameters and for determining the optimal set of design parameters which satisfy these constraints. Illustrative calculations have been carried out for conceptual repository designs for spent pressurized water reactor (PWR) fuel and reprocessed PWR high-level waste in salt and granite media.

Secrecy, patents and non-proliferation

U.S. law prohibits the filing of classified patents overseas but experience has shown that fundamental scientific principles cannot be kept secret.

The nuclear power industry in the Asia-Pacific region

The development of the nuclear reactor industry in the Pacific Basin began in the United States and Canada and spread to Japan and, more recently, to South Korea and Taiwan. The American and Canadian industries face serious economic and political difficulties; indeed, their current plight is so severe that their survival no longer seems assured. Because of the key regional role played up to now by the North American industries, and by the U.S. industry in particular, the realization of this scenario would have important repercussions for nuclear trade and investment throughout the region. In the longer run, some basic structural changes would seem likely, with the focal point of industrial strength and technological leadership in the region shifting to Northeast Asia, and to Japan in particular. Already there is evidence of this shift. But the prospect of a smooth, gradual transition toward a new regional industrial structure centered on Japan may be misleading. What is missing from this picture is a full measure of the extent to which nuclear industrial development elsewhere in the region is positively correlated with the trend in the United States.