Richard T. Wetherald

Thermal Equilibrium of the Atmosphere with a Given Distribution of Relative Humidity

Abstract Radiative convective equilibrium of the atmosphere with a given distribution of relative humidity is computed as the asymptotic state of an initial value problem. The results show that it takes almost twice as long to reach the state of radiative convective equilibrium for the atmosphere with a given distribution of relative humidity than for the atmosphere with a given distribution of absolute humidity. Also, the surface equilibrium temperature of the former is almost twice as sensitive to change of various factors such as solar constant, CO2 content, O3 content, and cloudiness, than that of the latter, due to the adjustment of water vapor content to the temperature variation of the atmosphere. According to our estimate, a doubling of the CO2 content in the atmosphere has the effect of raising the temperature of the atmosphere (whose relative humidity is fixed) by about 2C. Our model does not have the extreme sensitivity of atmospheric temperature to changes of CO2 content which was adduced by M...

The Effects of Doubling the CO2 Concentration on the climate of a General Circulation Model

Abstract An attempt is made to estimate the temperature changes resulting from doubling the present CO2 concentration by the use of a simplified three-dimensional general circulation model. This model contains the following simplications: a limited computational domain, an idealized topography, no beat transport by ocean currents, and fixed cloudiness. Despite these limitations, the results from this computation yield some indication of how the increase of CO2 concentration may affect the distribution of temperature in the atmosphere. It is shown that the CO2 increase raises the temperature of the model troposphere, whereas it lowers that of the model stratosphere. The tropospheric warming is somewhat larger than that expected from a radiative-convective equilibrium model. In particular, the increase of surface temperature in higher latitudes is magnified due to the recession of the snow boundary and the thermal stability of the lower troposphere which limits convective beating to the lowest layer. It is ...

On the Distribution of Climate Change Resulting from an Increase in CO2 Content of the Atmosphere

Abstract A study of the climatic effect of doubling or quadrupling of CO2 in the atmosphere has been continued by the use of a simple general circulation model with a limited computational domain, highly idealized geography, no seasonal variation of insolation, and a simplified interaction between cloud and radiative transfer. The results from the numerical experiments reveal that the response of the model climate to an increase of CO2 content in air is far from uniform geographically. For example, one can identify the high-latitude region of the continent where the runoff rate increases markedly, a zonal belt of decreasing soil moisture around 42° latitude, and a zone of enhanced wetness along the east coast of the subtropical portion of the model continent. The general warming and the increase of moisture content of air, which results from a CO2 increase, contributes to the large reduction of the meridional temperature gradient in the lower model troposphere because of 1) poleward retreat of highly refl...

Large-Scale Changes of Soil Wetness Induced by an Increase in Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide

Abstract The change in soil wetness in response to an increase of atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide is investigated by two versions of a climate model which consists of a general circulation model of the atmosphere and a static mixed layer ocean. In the first version of the model, the distribution of cloud cover is specified whereas it is computed in the second version incorporating the interaction among cloud cover, radiative transfer and the atmospheric circulation. The CO2-induced changes of climate and hydrology are evaluated based upon a comparison between two quasi-equilibrium climates of a model with a normal and an above normal concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide. It is shown that, in response to a doubling (or quadrupling) of atmospheric carbon dioxide, soil moisture is reduced in summer over extensive midcontinental regions of both North America and Eurasia in middle and high latitudes. Based upon the budget analysis of heat and water, the physical mechanisms responsible for th...

The Effects of Changing the Solar Constant on the Climate of a General Circulation Model

Abstract A study is conducted to evaluate the response of a simplified three-dimensional model climate to changes of the solar constant. The model explicitly computes the heat transport by large-scale atmospheric disturbances. It contains the following simplifications: a limited computational domain, an idealized topography, no heat transport by ocean currents, no seasonal variation, and fixed cloudiness. It is found that the temperature of the model troposphere increases with increasing solar radiation. The greatest increase occurs in the surface layer of higher latitudes due to the effects of the snow-cover feedback mechanism as well as the suppression of vertical mixing by a stable lower troposphere. This result is found to be qualitatively similar to that obtained from previous studies with one-dimensional zonal mean models. One of the most interesting features of this investigation is the extreme sensitivity of the intensity of the computed hydrologic cycle to small changes of the solar constant. Cur...

An investigation of cloud cover change in response to thermal forcing

The role of cloud cover in determining the sensitivity of climate has been a source of great uncertainty. This article reviews the distributions of cloud cover change from several climate sensitivity experiments conducted at the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory of NOAA (GFDL) and other institutions. Two of the sensitivity experiments conducted at GFDL used a general circulation model with a limited computational domain and idealized geography, whereas three other experiments were conducted by the use of a global model with realistic geography. A thermal forcing imposed was either a change of solar constant or that of the CO2-concentration in the atmosphere. It was found that in all five cases, clouds were decreased in the moist, convectively active regions such as the tropical and middle latitude rainbelts, whereas they increased in the stable region near the model surface from middle to higher latitudes. In addition, cloud also increased in the lower model stratosphere and generally decreased in the middle and upper troposphere for practically all latitudes.A comparison of the cloud changes obtained from investigations carried out at other institutions reveals certain qualitative (but not necessarily quantitative) similarities to the GFDL results. These similarities include a general reduction of tropospheric cloud cover especially in the vicinity of the rainbelts, a general increase of lower stratospheric cloud cover for almost all latitudes and an increase of low stratiform cloud in high latitudes.

Transient response of a coupled model to estimated changes in greenhouse gas and sulfate concentrations

This study investigates changes in surface air temperature (SAT), hydrology and the thermohaline circulation due to the the radiative forcing of anthropogenic greenhouse gases and the direct radiative forcing (DRF) of sulfate aerosols in the GFDL coupled ocean-atmosphere model. Three 300-year model integrations are performed with increasing greenhouse gas concentrations only, increasing sulfate aerosol concentrations only and increasing greenhouse gas and sulfate aerosol concentrations. A control integration is also performed keeping concentrations of sulfate and carbon dioxide fixed. The global annual mean SAT change when both greenhouse gases and sulfate aerosols are included is in better agreement with observations than when greenhouse gases alone are included. When the global annual mean SAT change from a model integration that includes only increases in greenhouse gases is added to that from a model integration that includes only increases in sulfate, the resulting global SAT change is approximately equal to that from a model integration that includes increases in both greenhouse gases and sulfate aerosol throughout the integration period. Similar results are found for global annual mean precipitation changes and for the geographical distribution of both SAT and precipitation changes indicating that the climate response is linearly additive for the two types of forcing considered here. Changes in the mid-continental summer dryness and thermohaline circulation are also briefly discussed.

DETECTABILITY OF SUMMER DRYNESS CAUSED BY GREENHOUSE WARMING

This study investigates the temporal and spatial variation of soil moisture associated with global warming as simulated by long-term integrations of a coupled ocean-atmosphere model conducted earlier. Starting from year 1765, integrations of the coupled model for 300 years were performed for three scenarios: increasing greenhouse gases only, increasing sulfate-aerosol loading only and the combination of both radiative forcings. The integration with the combined radiative forcings reproduces approximately the observed increases of global mean surface air temperature during the 20th century. Analysis of this integration indicates that both summer dryness and winter wetness occur in middle-to-high latitudes of North America and southern Europe. These features were identified in earlier studies. However, in the southern part of North America where the percentage reduction of soil moisture during summer is quite large, soil moisture is decreased for nearly the entire annual cycle in response to greenhouse warming. A similar observation applies to other semi-arid regions in subtropical to middle latitudes such as central Asia and the area surrounding the Mediterranean Sea. On the other hand, annual mean runoff is greatly increased in high latitudes because of increased poleward transport of moisture in the warmer model atmosphere. An analysis of the central North American and southern European regions indicates that the time when the change of soil moisture exceeds one standard deviation about the control integration occurs considerably later than that of surface air temperature for a given experiment because the ratio of forced change to natural variability is much smaller for soil moisture compared with temperature. The corresponding lag time for runoff change is even greater than that of either precipitation or soil moisture for the same reason. Also according to the above criterion, the inclusion of the effect of sulfate aerosols in the greenhouse warming experiment delays the noticeable change of soil moisture by several decades. It appears that observed surface air temperature is a better indicator of greenhouse warming than hydrologic quantities such as precipitation, runoff and soil moisture. Therefore, we are unlikely to notice definitive CO2-induced continental summer dryness until several decades into the 21st century.

Cloud Cover and Climate Sensitivity

Abstract This study discusses how the sensitivity of climate may be affected by the variation of cloud cover based on the results from numerical experiments with a highly simplified, three-dimensional model of the atmospheric general circulation. The model explicitly computes the heat transport by large-scale atmospheric disturbances. It contains the following simplifications: a limited computational domain, an idealized geography, no heat transport by ocean currents and no seasonal variation. Two versions of the model are constructed. The first version includes prognostic schemes of cloud cover and its radiative influences, and the second version uses a prescribed distribution of cloud cover for the computation of radiative transfer. Two sets of equilibrium climates are obtained from the long-term integrations of both versions of the model for several values of the solar constant. Based on the comparison between the variable and the fixed cloud experiments, the influences of cloud cover variation on the ...

Committed warming and its implications for climate change

Time lags between changes in radiative forcing and the resulting simulated climate responses are investigated in a set of transient climate change experiments. Both surface air temperature (SAT) and soil moisture responses are examined. Results suggest that if the radiative forcing is held fixed at todays levels, the global mean SAT will rise an additional 1.0K before equilibrating. This unrealized warming commitment is larger than the 0.6K warming observed since 1900. The coupled atmosphere-ocean GCMs transient SAT response for the year 2000 is estimated to be similar to its equilibration response to 1980 radiative forcings—a lag of ∼20 years. Both the time lag and the warming commitment are projected to increase in the future, and depend on the model‧s climate sensitivity, oceanic heat uptake, and the forcing scenario. These results imply that much of the warming due to current greenhouse gas levels is yet to be realized.