Richard W. Frank

Diplomatic Interventions and Civil War: A New Dataset

Recent research in the civil war literature has focused on how and when external actors intervene. However, to date, systematic data have not existed on diplomatic efforts in conflict management. This article fills this gap and introduces a dataset on 438 diplomatic interventions in 68 conflicts stretching from 1945 to 1999. The authors briefly outline previous research on third-party interventions in civil wars, describe the dataset in some detail, including some initial patterns in the data, and describe how this dataset contributes to research into conflict processes. The authors also demonstrate how diplomatic interventions can be incorporated into other research agendas by merging this dataset with Doyle & Sambaniss peacekeeping data and replicating their analysis to examine the role of external diplomacy on peacebuilding success. These data on interventions, moreover, can be merged with commonly used datasets on intrastate conflicts, which promises a wide range of application in civil war studies. Developing a greater understanding of when and how civil wars end, scholarship needs to take into account efforts to arrive at diplomatic solutions. And if, as the results demonstrate, externally driven diplomacy facilitates the termination of civil wars, then the policy implications are quite important.

Advancing electoral integrity

List of tables and figures Preface and acknowledgments Notes about contributors Introduction 1. Introduction: Challenges of Electoral Integrity, Pippa Norris When do elections fail? Standards and evidence 2. Assessing Elections, Avery Davies-Roberts and David J. Carroll 3. Methods and Evidence, Pippa Norris, Jorgen Elklit and Andrew Reynolds 4. Expert Judgments, Ferran Martinez i Coma and Richard W. Frank 5. Election Monitoring, Ursula Daxecker and Gerald Schneider Do Institutions Matter? Managing elections 6. Constitutions and Election Management, Svitlana Chernykh, Zachary Elkins, James Melton and Tom Ginsburg 7. Electoral Management in Central America, Antonio Ugues, Jr. 8. Election Management in Britain, Toby S. James 9. Investing in Electoral Management, Alistair Clark Does lack of integrity undermine legitimacy? 10. EMB Performance and African Perceptions of Electoral Integrity, Nicholas N. Kerr 11. Electoral Integrity and Democratic Legitimacy in Africa, Robert Mattes 12. Electoral Trust in Latin America, Arturo Maldonado and Mitchell Seligson 13. American Attitudes towards Election Fraud, Thad E. Hall and Charles Stewart Conclusions: What Is To Be Done? Policy Interventions 14. Lessons From the Ground: What Have We Learnt? What Do We Do Next? Roundtable Discussion with Eric Bjornlund, David Carroll, Staffan Darnolf, Annette Fath-Lihic, Aleida Ferreyra, Betilde Munoz-Pogossian, Pippa Norris, and Chad Vickery Index

Good for the money

Previous research indicates that a lack of state capacity is a key determinant of internal armed conflict. Scholars identify several internal dimensions of state capacity, but have yet to explore how international finance influences state resources. This is surprising because sovereign lending has increased dramatically in recent decades and plays an increasing role in the functioning of developed and developing governments. In this article, we explore this relationship between a state’s integration into global credit markets and its subsequent capacity to promote domestic stability. We argue that international capital increases a state’s ability to respond to internal opposition because states with favorable credit terms can expand their resource base beyond domestic constraints to deter, accommodate, or repress opposition while maintaining a level provision of resources to their political base. We examine the influence that both capital access and credit terms have on the risk of civil conflict in 141 countries from 1981 to 2007. Our empirical results indicate that states with affordable credit access are indeed less likely to experience civil conflict.

Measuring Electoral Integrity around the World: A New Dataset

Many contentious elections end in disputes about alleged fraud, irregularities, and malpractices. How do we know when these claims are valid and when they are false complaints from sore losers? This article describes a new dataset developed by the Electoral Integrity Project. Based on a survey of election experts, the research provides new evidence to compare how national contests around the world are meeting international standards of electoral integrity. The questionnaire includes 49 key indicators clustered into 11 stages of the electoral cycle, as well as generating an overall summary Perception of Electoral Integrity (PEI) 100-point index. The evidence displays high levels of external validity, internal validity, and legitimacy. The PEI datasets allow researchers to gauge the perceived quality of elections worldwide. This study summarizes the PEI’s research design, compares the quality of elections around the globe, and illustrates how electoral integrity is linked with both democracy and development.

Migrant remittances and the onset of civil war

Civil wars reflect, in part, internal contestation over the provision of resources. A government’s ability to “buy off” rebellion by providing social welfare payments is one mechanism to help ensure social stability. In times of economic distress, however, the government becomes increasingly constrained in its ability to provide social welfare and, absent some form of financial relief, will be subject to increasing pressure from potential rebel groups. Migrant remittances can serve as a smoothing mechanism that provides for social welfare needs outside the formal mechanisms of the state, and therefore acts to reduce the incentive for rebellion. We develop a model of migrant remittances as a vehicle that provides domestic stability in times of economic constraints. We test hypotheses from this model on World Bank remittance data to 152 countries from 1980 to 2005. Our results suggest that a significant increase in migrant remittances during crises can lower the risk of civil war.

Passenger or Driver? A Cross-National Examination of Media Coverage and Civil War Interventions

Existing research on civil war interventions provides contradicting evidence about the role that the media plays in affecting the likelihood of intervention. To date, studies often focus on specific cases (frequently by the United States) leaving it unclear whether the medias influence extends more broadly. In this article we examine this question cross-nationally and argue that we need to account for the possibility that interventions also lead to increases in media coverage. We test our hypotheses using cross-national data on civil war interventions and media coverage. These data include a new measure of media coverage of 73 countries experiencing civil wars between 1982 and 1999. These data allow us to determine whether media coverage is more likely to drive leaders’ decisions or follow them. Toward this end we employ a two-stage conditional maximum likelihood model to control for potential endogeneity between media attention and interventions. The results suggest a reciprocal positive relationship between media attention and civil conflict interventions. Specifically, an increase of one standard deviation in media coverage raises the probability of intervention 68%.

Contentious Elections: From Votes to Violence

CONTENTS 1. Contentious Elections: From Votes to Violence Pippa Norris, Richard W. Frank, and Ferran Martinez i Coma Part I: Corroding Public Trust and Triggering Protest 2. Do Contentious Elections Depress Turnout? Olena Nikolayenko 3. Do Contentious Elections Catalyze Mass Protests? Alesia Sedziaka and Richard Rose 4. Do Contentious Elections Overthrow Leaders? Masaaki Higashijima Part 2: Catalyzing and Preventing Electoral Violence 5. Do Contentious Elections Trigger Violence? Patrick M. Kuhn 6. Do Referendums Resolve or Perpetuate Contention? Katherine Collin Conclusions 7. The Risks of Contentious Elections Pippa Norris, Richard W. Frank, and Ferran Martinez i Coma

Human Trafficking Indicators, 2000-2011: A New Dataset

This manuscript presents the Human Trafficking Indicators (HTI), a new dataset on human trafficking patterns and government anti-trafficking efforts in 179 countries from 2000 to 2011. This is the first dataset to broadly capture different trafficking types and disaggregated measures of government responses. These data enable the cross-national study of seven types of trafficking including forced prostitution, labor, domestic servitude, and debt bondage. The HTI also includes measures of a government’s law enforcement efforts, protective services, and prevention efforts. This paper presents an overview of the dataset, some initial trends, and implications for trafficking research.