Riitta Hänninen

Climate change mitigation through increased wood use in the European construction sector—towards an integrated modelling framework

Using wood as a building material affects the carbon balance through several mechanisms. This paper describes a modelling approach that integrates a wood product substitution model, a global partial equilibrium model, a regional forest model and a stand-level model. Three different scenarios were compared with a business-as-usual scenario over a 23-year period (2008–2030). Two scenarios assumed an additional one million apartment flats per year will be built of wood instead of non-wood materials by 2030. These scenarios had little effect on markets and forest management and reduced annual carbon emissions by 0.2–0.5% of the total 1990 European GHG emissions. However, the scenarios are associated with high specific CO2 emission reductions per unit of wood used. The third scenario, an extreme assumption that all European countries will consume 1-m3 sawn wood per capita by 2030, had large effects on carbon emission, volumes and trade flows. The price changes of this scenario, however, also affected forest management in ways that greatly deviated from the partial equilibrium model projections. Our results suggest that increased wood construction will have a minor impact on forest management and forest carbon stocks. To analyse larger perturbations on the demand side, a market equilibrium model seems crucial. However, for that analytical system to work properly, the market and forest regional models must be better synchronized than here, in particular regarding assumptions on timber supply behaviour. Also, bioenergy as a commodity in market and forest models needs to be considered to study new market developments; those modules are currently missing.

Transmission of price changes in sawnwood and sawlog markets of the new and old EU member countries

In the European sawnwood markets, competition is tight between producer countries, with the new EU countries gradually gaining larger market shares. This paper focuses on the pass-through of sawnwood prices to supplier countries’ national roundwood prices. Price-change effects on market shares are known to be large, but not so much is known about the timing and duration of price transmission between competitor countries. Our empirical analysis concerns the exports of four large sawnwood supplier countries in Europe (Finland, Austria, Estonia and the Czech Republic) to German markets, using quarterly panel data for 1995–2003. The transmission process was found to differ between countries, and the relationship was most clearly detectable between Finnish sawlog and sawnwood prices. Results based on seemingly unrelated regression analysis indicated that price transmission exhibits similarities between old (i.e. Austria, Finland) and new EU member countries (Estonia, Czech Republic). Overall developments in both sawnwood and sawlog prices displayed convergence in the study period, which indicates that deepening integration in European markets is also detectable in the forest sector.

Econometric Analysis of China's Plywood Market

Chinas primary wood-processing industry and wood-consuming sectors have experienced rapid growth in recent years. Plywood is the most important primary wood product in China in terms of consumptio...

Complexity of Assessing Future Forest Bioenergy Markets - Review of Bioenergy Potential Estimates in the European Union

Purpose of ReviewThe European Union’s targets to reduce greenhouse gas emissions have led to the increasing demand for forest biomass in energy production, which, in turn, has raised questions about the adequacy of supply and the sustainability of forest biomass resources for energy. Although the prospects of using biomass for energy have been studied extensively, the outcomes and estimates differ widely between studies. Understanding the differences between the estimates can facilitate their utilisation in policy and investment planning. In this review, we identify and summarise the factors and assumptions affecting the forest bioenergy potential estimates.Recent FindingsFor the purpose of comparing bioenergy potential estimates, there is a need to harmonise units, concepts and methods—the range of estimates is partly attributable to the differences in what the term potential refers to. In terms of methods, perhaps the most significant drawback in some of the previous estimates indicating a “market gap” has been the neglect of market mechanisms, i.e. price dynamics and international trade. Some essential market assumptions have also been overlooked, notably how the demand for and supply of forest biomass for energy are closely related to the development and vitality of traditional forest industries, as well as to the development of forest products markets.SummaryThe estimates for bioenergy potentials vary mostly due to differences in the scope of the studies, methods and approaches employed and assumptions concerning market developments. Studies have been primarily focused on the theoretical or technical potential for bioenergy and paid less attention to economic and sustainable potential that would provide more policy relevance. Further research on forest bioenergy resources could benefit from increased attention to the interdependencies between markets, the costs and externalities of bioenergy production and sustainability of forest biomass sourcing.

Puun tarjonta ja puun käytön tulevaisuuden näkymät Itämeren alueella

Mustonen M., Viitanen J., Hänninen R., Knuuttila M., Jansik C. (2017). Puun tarjonta ja puun käytön tulevaisuuden näkymät Itämeren alueella. Metsätieteen aikakauskirja 2017-7687. Tieteen tori. 8 s. https://doi.org/10.14214/ma.7687 Yhteystiedot 1 Luonnonvarakeskus (Luke), Talousja yhteiskunta, Helsinki; 2 Luonnonvarakeskus (Luke), Talousja yhteiskunta, Joensuu; 3 Luonnonvarakeskus (Luke), Talousja yhteiskunta, Mikkeli Sähköposti mika.mustonen@luke.fi Hyväksytty 30.3.2017