Rikiya Matsukura

DECLINING FERTILITY AND THE RISING COST OF CHILDREN

This paper examines, at the aggregate level, the relationship between cost of children and number of children (as measured by the total fertility rate) in Japan and other East Asian countries, using a new methodological approach called National Transfer Accounts (NTA). The private and public direct costs of children are measured by private and public transfers flowing into the ‘child’ age groups from older age groups. The estimated elasticity between cost and number of children is high, and the elasticity between the human capital component of the cost of children, i.e. education and health costs, and number of children is even higher. This is consistent with the widely held view that in the highly success-oriented societies of East Asia, human capital is a very important factor in parents’ family-size decisions. The estimated elasticities are measures of the trade-off between quality and quantity of children.

JAPAN'S TRANSITION FROM THE DEMOGRAPHIC BONUS TO THE DEMOGRAPHIC ONUS

Immediately after World War Two, Japans fertility declined by more than 50 per cent in 10 years. This unprecedented decline of fertility resulted in a substantial shift in personal resource allocation away from childrearing and induced a rapid accumulation of physical capital in the 1950s, which provided a strong base for achieving Japans phenomenal economic growth from the late 1950s to the early 1970s. By heavily drawing upon two simulation models, this paper attempts to show how large the demographic bonus was in post-war Japan and how serious the demographic onus is likely to be over the period 2000–2025.

Multivariate Analysis of Parity Progression–Based Measures of the Total Fertility Rate and Its Components

This article describes a methodology for applying a discrete-time survival model—the complementary log-log model—to estimate effects of socioeconomic variables on (1) the total fertility rate and its components and (2) trends in the total fertility rate and its components. For the methodology to be applicable, the total fertility rate (TFR) must be calculated from parity progression ratios (PPRs). The components of the TFR are PPRs, the total marital fertility rate (TMFR), and the TFR itself as measures of the quantum of fertility, and mean and median ages at first marriage and mean and median closed birth intervals by birth order as measures of the tempo or timing of fertility. The focus is on effects of predictor variables on these measures rather than on coefficients, which are often difficult to interpret in the complex models that are considered. The methodology is applicable to both period and cohort data. It is illustrated by application to data from the 1993, 1998, and 2003 Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) in the Philippines.

HEALTH AND ITS IMPACT ON WORK AND DEPENDENCY AMONG THE ELDERLY IN JAPAN

The present study seeks to provide new evidence on the determinants of retirement for older Japanese men and women, using a unique longitudinal survey of households, the Nihon University Japan Longitudinal Study of Ageing (NUJLSOA). One of the major findings of the present study is that the primary determinant of the probability of remaining in work between 1999 and 2003 was changes in health status as measured by the change in the number of NAGI limitations. Using the same data set, this study also investigates how the status of health affects the degree to which the Japanese elderly expect to rely on their children for old-age security. The computed results were somewhat surprising. The respondents health status was not statistically significant, but the health status of the respondents spouse affected the probabilities of the respondents expectation to rely on children in both 2001 and 2003.

Population Aging and Health Care Spending in Japan: Public- and Private-sector Responses

Population aging is a global phenomenon that influences not only the industrialized countries of Asia and the West, but also many middle- and low- income countries that have experienced rapid fertility decline and achieved long life expectancies. This book explores how workers and consumers are responding to population aging and examines how economic growth, generational equity, trade and international capital flows are influenced by population aging.

Population Aging, Changing Retirement Policies and Lifetime Earnings Profiles in Japan

Population aging is a global phenomenon that influences not only the industrialized countries of Asia and the West, but also many middle- and low- income countries that have experienced rapid fertility decline and achieved long life expectancies. This book explores how workers and consumers are responding to population aging and examines how economic growth, generational equity, trade and international capital flows are influenced by population aging.

Population aging, economic growth, and intergenerational transfers in Japan: how dire are the prospects?

First, the expert contributors argue, Asia must find ways to sustain rapid economic growth in the face of less favorable demographics, which implies slower growth of the workforce. Second, they contend, Asia must find ways to deliver affordable, adequate, and sustainable old-age economic security for its growing elderly population. Underpinned by rigorous analysis, a wide range of concrete policy options for sustaining economic growth while delivering economic security for the elderly are then presented. These include Asia-wide policy options – relevant to the entire region – such as building up strong national pension systems, while other policy options are more relevant to sub-groups of countries.

Sexless Marriages in Japan: Prevalence and Reasons

Using data from a national survey on work and family life in Japan, this chapter examines the frequency of sexual intercourse between married or cohabitating partners. The data show that the frequency of intercourse in Japan is low: slightly less than half (45 %) of the couples reported not having had sexual intercourse for at least 1 month. A logit regression analysis suggests that husbands’ long working hours, the presence of children under age 3, and poor marital relations were major determinants of sexless marriages. In addition, qualitative data from focus-group discussions indicate that “having sex” is a less important activity to Japanese couples in their busy daily schedules than are childrearing tasks or work responsibilities. The respondents were not particularly bothered by their sexless status within marriage as long as the marital partnership worked well in the context of a child-centered family.

IS CHILDCARE LEAVE EFFECTIVE IN RAISING FERTILITY IN JAPAN

This paper estimates the effect of childcare leave on married womens fertility in Japan, based on data from the 2007 National Survey on Work and Family. The analysis takes into account how childcare leave influences fertility through its intermediate effects on womens selection into the labor market, job tenure, wages and the opportunity cost of children. Results indicate a strong effect of childcare leave on years of continuous job tenure with the same employer, and on predicted wages for full-time working women. Taking childcare leave for the first child increases the percentage progressing from first to second birth by six percentage points. There is also clear evidence that lowering the opportunity cost of children increases fertility, net of the effect of childcare leave, which affects fertility via the opportunity cost of children.

Declining fertility and the rising costs of children and the elderly in Japan and other selected Asian countries: An analysis based upon the NTA approach

Since the late 1960s, the growth of the world population has been steadily slowing down, primarily owing to an almost worldwide decline of fertility. Because of the reduction in world population growth rates in the second half of the 20th century, the outlook we have today is substantially different from the one we had a few decades ago. It is often mentioned by some demographers that while the 20th century was the century of ‘population explosion’, the 21st is likely to become the century of ‘population ageing’ (Lutz et al. 2004).