Rita Glowienka-Hense

Northern Hemisphere atmospheric response to changes of Atlantic Ocean SST on decadal time scales: A GCM experiment

Analyses indicate that the Atlantic Ocean seasurface temperature (SST) was considerably colder at the beginning than in the middle of the century. In parallel, a systematic change in the North Atlantic sea-level pressure (SLP) pattern was observed. To find out whether the SST and SLP changes analyzed are consistent, which would indicate that the SST change was real and not an instrumental artifact, a response experiment with a low-resolution (T21) atmospheric GCM was performed. Two perpetual January simulations were conducted, which differ solely in the Atlantic Ocean (40° S-60° N) SST: the “cold” simulation utilizes the SSTs for the period 1904–1913; the “warm” simulation uses the SSTs for the period 1951–1960. Also, a “control” run with the models standard SST somewhat between the “cold” and “warm” SST was made. For the response analysis, a rigorous statistical approach was taken. First, the null hypothesis of identical horizontal distributions was subjected to a multivariate significance test. Second, the level of recurrence was estimated. The multivariate statistical approaches are based on hierarchies of test models. We examined three different hierarchies: a scale-dependent hierarchy based on spherical harmonics (S), and two physically motivated ones, one based on the barotropic normal modes of the mean 300 hPa flow (B) and one based on the eigenmodes of the advection diffusion operator at 1000 hPa (A). The intercomparison of the “cold” and “warm” experiments indicates a signal in the geostrophic stream function that in the S-hierarchy is significantly nonzero and highly recurrent. In the A-hierarchy, the low level temperature field is identified as being significantly and recurrently affected by the altered SST distribution. The SLP signal is reasonably similar to the SLP change observed. Unexpectedly, the upper level stream-function signal does not appear to be significantly nonzero in the B-hierarchy. If, however, the pairs of experiments “warm versus control” and “cold versus control” are examined in the B-hierarchy, a highly significant and recurrent signal emerges. We conclude that the “cold versus warm” response is not a “small disturbance” that would allow the signal to be described by eigenmodes of the linear system. An analysis of the three-dimensional structure of the signal leads to the hypothesis that two different mechanisms are acting to modify the models mean state. At low levels, local heating and advection are dominant, but at upper levels the extratropical signal is a remote responce to modifications of the tropical convection.

The effect of an arctic polynya on the Northern Hemisphere mean circulation and eddy regime: a numerical experiment

The feedback of an arctic polynya, which is a large ice-free zone within the sea ice, on the hemispheric climate is studied with the ECMWF T21 GCM. For this purpose a control and an anomaly integration, in which a polynya was introduced in the Kara Sea, are compared. As the GCM, like the real atmosphere, shows a high level of low frequency variability, the mean response to the changed boundary conditions is obscured by internal noise. The necessary significance analyses are thus performed to enhance the signal-tonoise ratio within the framework of an a priori chosen guess pattern and a multivariate test statistic. The sensible and latent heat fluxes increased above the polynya, which resulted in a warming of the lower troposphere above and near the polynya. No statistically significant local or global sea-level pressure changes are associated with this heating. However we find a significant change of hemispheric extent of the geopotential fields at 300 hPa, if we use as guess patterns the eigenmodes of the barotropic vorticity equation. The different mean flow field is accompanied by significant changes of the synoptic transient eddy field. We find a significant variation in the barotropic and baroclinic forcing of the mean flow by the eddies, a change in the location and intensity of the storm tracks and in the conversion between eddy available and eddy kinetic energy. The additional heat flux from the polynya results in a reduction of the meridional heat flux by the synoptic eddies on the western Atlantic.

ECMWF versus Hellermann & Rosenstein stress climatology of the Southern Ocean

A time series of wind stresses computed from European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) wind data is compared to the climatology of Hellermann & Rosenstein (HR) for the Southern Hemisphere. ECMWF stresses are generally stronger, especially in the westerly belt. However they have an overall lower meridional component than the HR data. The dominance of the half annual cycle relative to the annual wave in the zonal stress at middle to high latitudes, which is documented for independent data sets, is seen in the ECMWF but not in the HR data. ECMWF winds are also compared with measurements from three expeditions to the Weddell Sea by RV Polarstern. Good correlations between Polarstern and ECMWF winds are found but for single dates the differences are above 10 ms −1 . The differences are found to be uncorrelated in space and are thus due to observational errors and to the unresolved small scale variance in the ECMWF analysed winds.