Rita R. Hamm

An assessment of the accuracy of a regional economic- demographic projection model.

A large number of regional economic-demographic projection models have been developed but their accuracy has seldom been evaluated. This article examines the accuracy of one such model in projecting total populations for 1980, using 1970 base data, for 106 counties and 553 places in two states.Comparisons of the model’s projections to 1980 Census counts reveal mean percentage absolute differences of 10 percent for counties and 14 percent for places. In addition, the model’s accuracy was comparable to that for alternative projection systems. When projections for places of less than 1,000 are excluded, differences are substantially reduced. Economic-demographic models appear to be quite useful and deserve further attention.

Modeling demographic change and characteristics in the analysis of future demand for leisure services

Abstract Populations are likely to grow slowly, age significantly, and show increased proportions of minorities in the coming decades. Such factors have received extensive attention as determinants of leisure behavior, but models for projecting future demand for leisure services have often failed to incorporate adequately the simultaneous interactive effects of age, race/ethnicity, and population growth. A cohort‐component population projection model employing age, sex, and race/ethnicity population detail and rates of participation in 10 different recreational and leisure activities is used to examine these interactive effects on the number of future participants in Texas. This number is significantly affected by age and race/ethnicity effects, apart from effects due to population growth, with some activities showing slower growth and others increased growth, due to aging and race/ethnicity effects. Clearly, models employing detailed information on demographic characteristics must be utilized to plan ade...

Evaluating Small-Area Population Projections

Abstract Methods for evaluating small-area population projections have received little attention but are critical to their development and use. A model, illustrative measures and methods for evaluating small-area projections, and examples of the evaluation process are presented. Although the accuracy of projections of future populations is impossible to determine, the internal and external consistency of the projections can be evaluated by comparing projections to the physical, socioeconomic, and demographic characteristics of the projection area; the characteristics of contextual and comparison areas; and the computational structure, parameter assumptions, and data used in the projection method.

Impacts of the Farm Crisis on a Rural Community

The farm crisis is affecting many sectors of rural society, but few empirical analyses of the impacts of the crisis on rural communities have been completed. A case study of a rural community was conducted using informal interviews with community leaders as well as formal interviews of current and former business operators and community residents. The results provide support for the premise that communities are being impacted by the farm crisis. Respondents showed high agreement on the causes for the crisis and on the aspects of the community being most severely affected by the crisis. A substantial number of businesses had failed recently and respondents believed businesses would continue to be affected negatively. Most respondents perceived the crisis as having at least some effect on their personal lives and on their community as a whole, but few perceived effects on rural services. Implications for community development efforts are discussed.