Steve H. Murdock

An assessment of the accuracy of a regional economic- demographic projection model.

A large number of regional economic-demographic projection models have been developed but their accuracy has seldom been evaluated. This article examines the accuracy of one such model in projecting total populations for 1980, using 1970 base data, for 106 counties and 553 places in two states.Comparisons of the model’s projections to 1980 Census counts reveal mean percentage absolute differences of 10 percent for counties and 14 percent for places. In addition, the model’s accuracy was comparable to that for alternative projection systems. When projections for places of less than 1,000 are excluded, differences are substantially reduced. Economic-demographic models appear to be quite useful and deserve further attention.

Community service satisfaction and stages of community development: An examination of evidence from impacted communities

Abstract The study attempts to establish how the levels and dimensions of community service satisfaction differ with stages of economic development and community population characteristics. This study examines levels of service satisfaction for 1400 respondents in nine western communities, by developmental types through descriptive analysis, analysis of variance, and factor analytic techniques. The analysis indicates that both new and longtime residents in currently developing communities are more dissatisfied with community services than residents in either pre‐ or post‐development communities, that differences in levels of satisfaction are not the result of differences in the characteristics of residents, but are significantly related to the stage of community development, and that the dimensions of service satisfaction also vary with the stage of development. Further analyses of the effects of stages of development on service satisfaction are suggested.

The implications of demographic change for recreational fisheries management in the United States

Abstract Projected decreased rates of population growth, increased immigration, an aging population, and increased numbers and proportions of minority residents will impact the demand for recreational fishing and fisheries management in the United States. Recent age and race/ ethnicity specific population projections and data on participation in, and expenditures for, fishing were used to examine the impacts of future demographic trends on angler numbers, characteristics, and expenditures from 1990 to 2050. Results suggest that the projected rate of increase in the angler population will not keep pace with population growth and there will be older and larger minority components. Minority growth will account for the majority of net growth in angler numbers and expenditures with immigration playing a major role in such increases. Increased diversity will require better understanding of the benefits anglers seek from fishing and groups with low participation rates should be recruited to participate in recrea...

Modeling demographic change and characteristics in the analysis of future demand for leisure services

Abstract Populations are likely to grow slowly, age significantly, and show increased proportions of minorities in the coming decades. Such factors have received extensive attention as determinants of leisure behavior, but models for projecting future demand for leisure services have often failed to incorporate adequately the simultaneous interactive effects of age, race/ethnicity, and population growth. A cohort‐component population projection model employing age, sex, and race/ethnicity population detail and rates of participation in 10 different recreational and leisure activities is used to examine these interactive effects on the number of future participants in Texas. This number is significantly affected by age and race/ethnicity effects, apart from effects due to population growth, with some activities showing slower growth and others increased growth, due to aging and race/ethnicity effects. Clearly, models employing detailed information on demographic characteristics must be utilized to plan ade...

Demographic Change in the United States in the 1990s and the Twenty-first Century: Implications for Fisheries Management

Abstract Projected decreases in rates of population growth, an aging population, and an increase in minority residents will affect the demand for sport fishing with implications for management. Age and race/ethnicity-specific projections of the U.S. population and of participation in fishing are used to examine the impacts of future demographic trends on the number and characteristics of anglers. Results suggest that the rate of increase in the angler population will decline, the population will become older, and the population will have larger minority components. These changes may require increased services for elderly and minority residents at a time when they are exempt from license fees or require lower access costs, respectively. As their numbers increase, older age and minority groups are likely to enjoy greater political power. Managers are likely to find themselves forced to address the needs of these groups in more direct and visible ways than had previously been required. This will require mana...

Evaluating Small-Area Population Projections

Abstract Methods for evaluating small-area population projections have received little attention but are critical to their development and use. A model, illustrative measures and methods for evaluating small-area projections, and examples of the evaluation process are presented. Although the accuracy of projections of future populations is impossible to determine, the internal and external consistency of the projections can be evaluated by comparing projections to the physical, socioeconomic, and demographic characteristics of the projection area; the characteristics of contextual and comparison areas; and the computational structure, parameter assumptions, and data used in the projection method.

Applied Demography in the 21st Century

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Impacts of the Farm Crisis on a Rural Community

The farm crisis is affecting many sectors of rural society, but few empirical analyses of the impacts of the crisis on rural communities have been completed. A case study of a rural community was conducted using informal interviews with community leaders as well as formal interviews of current and former business operators and community residents. The results provide support for the premise that communities are being impacted by the farm crisis. Respondents showed high agreement on the causes for the crisis and on the aspects of the community being most severely affected by the crisis. A substantial number of businesses had failed recently and respondents believed businesses would continue to be affected negatively. Most respondents perceived the crisis as having at least some effect on their personal lives and on their community as a whole, but few perceived effects on rural services. Implications for community development efforts are discussed.

Implications of Future Demographic Change for Participation in Fishing in Texas

Abstract We use racial and ethnicity characteristics and demographic decomposition techniques to examine the relative effects of age, race and ethnicity, and population growth on rates of participation in freshwater and saltwater fishing in Texas through 2025. The number of anglers will grow slowly, and an increasing proportion of anglers will be minorities and older people. From 1990 to 2025 the increase will be less than 20% for non-Hispanic whites but more than 70% for blacks and 130% for Hispanics. Minorities could account for 41% of participants in freshwater fishing and for 56% of those in saltwater fishing by 2025. For all racial and ethnic groups, projected increases are most rapid among middle and older age-groups. Decomposition analysis indicates that population growth will account for a majority of the change in the overall rate of participation, but age and race–ethnicity will also be important, particularly for saltwater fishing. Slower growth and increasing diversity among the population of ...

The effect of undercount on the accuracy of small-area population estimates: Implications for the use of administrative data for improving population enumeration

The effects of underenumeration on the accuracy of alternative methods of population estimation have not been sufficiently analyzed. Although the US Bureau of the Census has decided not to adjust either the counts or its estimates for underenumeration in 1990, the extent to which local population estimates may account for underenumeration is of importance both for those who may wish to adjust existing estimates and in anticipation of future census adjustments. This paper examines the accuracy of small-area population estimation methods with and without adjustment. Mean Percent Errors, Mean Absolute Percent Errors, and Mean Percent Absolute Differences between local estimates for 1990 and 1990 adjusted and unadjusted census counts are computed. Population estimates for 1990 made using housing unit, ratio correlation, and component methods are compared for 451 counties and 2,633 places in the states of California, Florida, Texas, and Wisconsin. An analysis of the data for counties shows little indication that local estimates more accurately estimate the adjusted than the unadjusted population counts. The results for places show clear improvements in accuracy for places in Florida and Texas. Implications of the findings for issues related to undercount adjustment and local population estimates are discussed.