Rob Clark

A New Trichotomous Measure of World-system Position Using the International Trade Network

Snyder and Kicks (1979) measure of world-system position continues to serve as the premier trichotomous network indicator of a states location in the capitalist world economy. In this study, we identify several problems with this orthodox measure concerning its age, informal construction, and incorporation of inappropriate networks. We introduce a trichotomous network measure of world-system position that addresses these concerns, applying Borgatti and Everetts (1999) core/periphery model to a three-tiered partition using international trade data. Our trichotomous measure of the trade network identifies an expanded core, consisting of an old orthodox core joined by a set of upwardly mobile states. We estimate the effect of world-system position on economic growth and find that our trade measure significantly outperforms Snyder and Kicks orthodox measure. When controlling for human capital, the strong effects of our trade measure persist, while the weaker effects estimated by the orthodox measure largely disappear. Moreover, our models with human capital reveal that states economically converge within world-system zones, while continuing to diverge between zones.

World-System Mobility and Economic Growth, 1980–2000

World-system scholars have traditionally emphasized the stability of the core/periphery hierarchy. However, prior network studies employing both categorical and continuous measures of world-system position reveal substantial mobility across time, whereby a number of developing states have become more integrated in the world economy over the past several decades. The developmental impact generated by such mobility remains unexplored. Using data on all commodities in the world trade network, I examine the presence and economic impact of world-system mobility across 110 states during the 1980–2000 period. First, I show that the continued upward mobility of “middle-tier” states from East Asia and the semiperiphery no longer contributes to the long-term trend of trade convergence, but began producing divergence during the final decades of the 20th century. Second, using difference models that control for lagged values, I find that world-system mobility positively affects economic growth, net of initial world-system position, capital and labor inputs, and other regional and economic characteristics. In fact, the magnitude of mobility’s effect is substantially larger than that of initial world-system position and second only to initial human capital. These findings support a range of perspectives that are collectively useful for understanding the rapid economic growth of emerging states.

TECHNICAL AND INSTITUTIONAL STATES: Loose Coupling in the Human Rights Sector of the World Polity

While human rights treaties have become increasingly popular over the past quarter century, there has not been a corresponding improvement in human rights practices. This discrepancy implies that a countrys formal pledge to uphold human rights principles is “loosely coupled” from its actual performance. In this study, I develop a model of loose coupling based on organizational research and apply it to the human rights sector of the world polity. Empirically, I identify a set of institutional states whose human rights practices fall short of their treaty commitments, as well as a set of technical states whose practices exceed their commitments. Analyzing an unbalanced data set with a maximum of 755 observations across 167 countries during the 1975 to 2000 period, I use random effects models to predict a states location on the Human Rights Decoupling Index (HRDI). The findings illustrate the importance of several organizational concepts for predicting a states HRDI score. In particular, the analyses reveal the countervailing effects of globalization. While economic globalization (i.e., trade and foreign investment) is associated with the technical (positive) end of the HRDI, cultural globalization (i.e., memberships in international organizations) is associated with the institutional (negative) end.

A Unified Flash Flood Database across the United States

Despite flash flooding being one of the most deadly and costly weather-related natural hazards worldwide, individual datasets to characterize them in the United States are hampered by limited documentation and can be difficult to access. This study is the first of its kind to assemble, reprocess, describe, and disseminate a georeferenced U.S. database providing a long-term, detailed characterization of flash flooding in terms of spatiotemporal behavior and specificity of impacts. The database is composed of three primary sources: 1) the entire archive of automated discharge observations from the U.S. Geological Survey that has been reprocessed to describe individual flooding events, 2) flash-flooding reports collected by the National Weather Service from 2006 to the present, and 3) witness reports obtained directly from the public in the Severe Hazards Analysis and Verification Experiment during the summers 2008–10. Each observational data source has limitations; a major asset of the unified flash flood d...

Dependency, Network Integration, and Development

Dependency scholars emphasize the harmful effects of economic incorporation for nations residing in the periphery. Conversely, a network perspective of international relations suggests that the major problem peripheral countries face is isolation. Considered together, peripherality implies both resource and partner dependency. Applying dependency and network principles to the world economy and world polity, the author assembles a set of cross-national measures based on international trade relations and membership in international nongovernmental organizations (INGOs). Analyzing a sample of eighty-two developing countries during the 1980–2000 period, the author tests the effects of dependency and network integration on two measures of development: Economic growth and tertiary school expansion. The author finds that dependent integration in trade and INGOs produces economic underdevelopment, while network integration in trade and INGOs positively affects economic growth and educational expansion. The findings broadly confirm dependency and network perspectives, demonstrating the developmental benefits that accrue to core/central actors relative to more dependent/peripheral economies.

The FLASH project: improving the tools for flash flood monitoring and prediction across the United States

This study introduces the Flooded Locations and Simulated Hydrographs (FLASH) project. FLASH is the first system to generate a suite of hydrometeorological products at flash flood scale in real-time across the conterminous United States, including rainfall average recurrence intervals, ratios of rainfall to flash flood guidance, and distributed hydrologic model–based discharge forecasts. The key aspects of the system are 1) precipitation forcing from the National Severe Storms Laboratory (NSSL)’s Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor (MRMS) system, 2) a computationally efficient distributed hydrologic modeling framework with sufficient representation of physical processes for flood prediction, 3) capability to provide forecasts at all grid points covered by radars without the requirement of model calibration, and 4) an open-access development platform, product display, and verification system for testing new ideas in a real-time demonstration environment and for fostering collaborations. This study assesses the FLASH system’s ability to accurately simulate unit peak discharges over a 7-yr period in 1,643 unregulated gauged basins. The evaluation indicates that FLASH’s unit peak discharges had a linear and rank correlation of 0.64 and 0.79, respectively, and that the timing of the peak discharges has errors less than 2 h. The critical success index with FLASH was 0.38 for flood events that exceeded action stage. FLASH performance is demonstrated and evaluated for case studies, including the 2013 deadly flash flood case in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, and the 2015 event in Houston, Texas—both of which occurred on Memorial Day weekends.

CONUS-Wide Evaluation of National Weather Service Flash Flood Guidance Products

AbstractThis study quantifies the skill of the National Weather Service’s (NWS) flash flood guidance (FFG) product. Generated by River Forecast Centers (RFCs) across the United States, local NWS Weather Forecast Offices compare estimated and forecast rainfall to FFG to monitor and assess flash flooding potential. A national flash flood observation database consisting of reports in the NWS publication Storm Data and U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) stream gauge measurements are used to determine the skill of FFG over a 4-yr period. FFG skill is calculated at several different precipitation-to-FFG ratios for both observation datasets. Although a ratio of 1.0 nominally indicates a potential flash flooding event, this study finds that FFG can be more skillful when ratios other than 1.0 are considered. When the entire continental United States is considered, the highest observed critical success index (CSI) with 1-h FFG is 0.20 for the USGS dataset, which should be considered a benchmark for future research that ...

World-system position and democracy, 1972–2008

Global levels of democracy are higher than ever before, and democratic principles are now institutionalized as a world cultural norm. Nevertheless, a number of countries continue to feature governing systems that restrict political rights. Against this backdrop, I revisit traditional claims by world-system theory regarding the impact of the core/periphery hierarchy on national political systems. In doing so, I draw attention to the uneven character of democratic growth across world-system zones. Using an updated trichotomous measure of world-system position, and drawing from Freedom House and Polity IV ratings of democracy, I construct an annual time-series dataset producing a maximum of 5445 observations across 161 countries during the 1972–2008 period. Employing a series of random-effects tobit models with year-by-covariate interaction terms, I compare democratic growth among nations in the core, semiperiphery, and periphery. The results indicate significant gaps in democracy between core and non-core nations that are not dissipating over time, and that are perhaps growing slightly larger. In a series of robustness checks, I find that using an alternative measure of world-system position, an alternative measure of democracy, and an alternative estimation strategy produce similar results. In sum, despite the global spread of democracy, world-system boundaries remain fundamental in hindering cross-national convergence.

The HMT Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor Hydro Experiment

AbstractThere are numerous challenges with the forecasting and detection of flash floods, one of the deadliest weather phenomena in the United States. Statistical metrics of flash flood warnings over recent years depict a generally stagnant warning performance, while regional flash flood guidance utilized in warning operations was shown to have low skill scores. The Hydrometeorological Testbed—Hydrology (HMT-Hydro) experiment was created to allow operational forecasters to assess emerging products and techniques designed to improve the prediction and warning of flash flooding. Scientific goals of the HMT-Hydro experiment included the evaluation of gridded products from the Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor (MRMS) and Flooded Locations and Simulated Hydrographs (FLASH) product suites, including the experimental Coupled Routing and Excess Storage (CREST) model, the application of user-defined probabilistic forecasts in experimental flash flood watches and warnings, and the utility of the Hazard Services software int...

Hydrological Modeling and Capacity Building in the Republic of Namibia

AbstractThe Republic of Namibia, located along the arid and semiarid coast of southwest Africa, is highly dependent on reliable forecasts of surface and groundwater storage and fluxes. Since 2009, the University of Oklahoma (OU) and National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) have engaged in a series of exercises with the Namibian Ministry of Agriculture, Water, and Forestry to build the capacity to improve the water information available to local decision-makers. These activities have included the calibration and implementation of NASA and OU’s jointly developed Coupled Routing and Excess Storage (CREST) hydrological model as well as the Ensemble Framework for Flash Flood Forecasting (EF5). Hydrological model output is used to produce forecasts of river stage height, discharge, and soil moisture.To enable broad access to this suite of environmental decision support information, a website, the Namibia Flood Dashboard, hosted on the infrastructure of the Open Science Data Cloud, has been developed...