Robert A. Page

Earthquake classification, location, and error analysis in a volcanic environment: implications for the magmatic system of the 1989–1990 eruptions at redoubt volcano, Alaska

Abstract Determination of the precise locations of seismic events associated with the 1989–1990 eruptions of Redoubt Volcano posed a number of problems, including poorly known crustal velocities, a sparse station distribution, and an abundance of events with emergent phase onsets. In addition, the high relief of the volcano could not be incorporated into the hypoellipse earthquake location algorithm. This algorithm was modified to allow hypocenters to be located above the elevation of the seismic stations. The velocity model was calibrated on the basis of a posteruptive seismic survey, in which four chemical explosions were recorded by eight stations of the permanent network supplemented with 20 temporary seismographs deployed on and around the volcanic edifice. The model consists of a stack of homogeneous horizontal layers; setting the top of the model at the summit allows events to be located anywhere within the volcanic edifice. Detailed analysis of hypocentral errors shows that the long-period (LP) events constituting the vigorous 23-hour swarm that preceded the initial eruption on December 14 could have originated from a point 1.4 km below the crater floor. A similar analysis of LP events in the swarm preceding the major eruption on January 2 shows they also could have originated from a point, the location of which is shifted 0.8 km northwest and 0.7 km deeper than the source of the initial swarm. We suggest this shift in LP activity reflects a northward jump in the pathway for magmatic gases caused by the sealing of the initial pathway by magma extrusion during the last half of December. Volcano-tectonic (VT) earthquakes did not occur until after the initial 23-hour-long swarm. They began slowly just below the LP source and their rate of occurrence increased after the eruption of 01:52 AST on December 15, when they shifted to depths of 6 to 10 km. After January 2 the VT activity migrated gradually northward; this migration suggests northward propagating withdrawal of magma from a plexus of dikes and/or sills located in the 6 to 10 km depth range. Precise relocations of selected events prior to January 2 clearly resolve a narrow, steeply dipping, pencil-shaped concentration of activity in the depth range of 1–7 km, which illuminates the conduit along which magma was transported to the surface. A third event type, named hybrid, which blends the characteristics of both VT and LP events, originates just below the LP source, and may reflect brittle failure along a zone intersecting a fluid-filled crack. The distribution of hybrid events is elongated 0.2–0.4 km in an east-west direction. This distribution may offer constraints on the orientation and size of the fluid-filled crack inferred to be the source of the LP events.

Seismic evolution of the 1989-1990 eruption sequence of Redoubt Volcano, Alaska

Abstract Redoubt Volcano in south-central Alaska erupted between December 1989 and June 1990 in a sequence of events characterized by large tephra eruptions, pyroclastic flows, lahars and debris flows, and episodes of dome growth. The eruption was monitored by a network of five to nine seismic stations located 1 to 22 km from the summit crater. Notable features of the eruption seismicity include : (1) small long-period events beginning in September 1989 which increased slowly in number during November and early December; (2) an intense swarm of long-period events which preceded the initial eruptions on December 14 by 23 hours; (3) shallow swarms (0 to 3 km) of volcano-tectonic events following each eruption on December 15; (4) a persistent cluster of deep (6 to 10 km) volcano-tectonic earthquakes initiated by the eruptions on December 15, which continued throughout and beyond the eruption; (5) an intense swarm of long-period events which preceded the eruptions on January 2; and (6) nine additional intervals of increased long-period seismicity each of which preceded a tephra eruption. Hypocenters of volcano-tectonic earthquakes suggest the presence of a magma source region at 6–10 km depth. Earthquakes at these depths were initiated by the tephra eruptions on December 15 and likely represent the readjustment of stresses in the country rock associated with the removal of magma from these depths. The locations and time-history of these earthquakes coupled with the eruptive behavior of the volcano suggest this region was the source of most of the erupted material during the 1989–1990 eruption. This source region appears to be connected to the surface by a narrow pipe-like conduit as inferred from the hypocenters of volcano-tectonic earthquakes. Concentrations of shallow volcano-tectonic earthquakes followed each of the tephra eruptions on December 15; these shocks may represent stress readjustment in the wall rock related to the removal of magma and volatiles at these depths. This shallow zone was the source area of the majority of long-period seismicity through the remainder of the eruption. The long-period seismicity likely reflects the pressurization of the shallow portions of the magmatic system.

Trans-Alaska Crustal Transect and continental evolution involving subduction underplating and synchronous foreland thrusting

We investigate the crustal structure and tectonic evolution of the North American continent in Alaska, where the continent has grown through magmatism, accretion, and tectonic under-plating. In the 1980s and early 1990s, we conducted a geological and geophysical investigation, known as the Trans-Alaska Crustal Transect (TACT), along a 1350-km-long corridor from the Aleutian Trench to the Arctic coast. The most distinctive crustal structures and the deepest Moho along the transect are located near the Pacific and Arctic margins. Near the Pacific margin, we infer a stack of tectonically underplated oceanic layers interpreted as remnants of the extinct Kula (or Resurrection) plate. Continental Moho just north of this underplated stack is more than 55 km deep. Near the Arctic margin, the Brooks Range is underlain by large-scale duplex structures that overlie a tectonic wedge of North Slope crust and mantle. There, the Moho has been depressed to nearly 50 km depth. In contrast, the Moho of central Alaska is on average 32 km deep. In the Paleogene, tectonic underplating of Kula (or Resurrection) plate fragments overlapped in time with duplexing in the Brooks Range. Possible tectonic models linking these two regions include flat-slab subduction and an orogenic-float model. In the Neogene, the tectonics of the accreting Yakutat terrane have differed across a newly interpreted tear in the subducting Pacific oceanic lithosphere. East of the tear, Pacific oceanic lithosphere subducts steeply and alone beneath the Wrangell volcanoes, because the overlying Yakutat terrane has been left behind as underplated rocks beneath the rising St. Elias Range, in the coastal region. West of the tear, the Yakutat terrane and Pacific oceanic lithosphere subduct together at a gentle angle, and this thickened package inhibits volcanism.

Accretion and subduction tectonics in the Chugach Mountains and Copper River Basin, Alaska: initial results of the Trans-Alaska Crustal Transect

Geologic, seismic, gravity, and magnetic data from the northern Chugach Mountains and southern Copper River Basin, Alaska, indicate that the Chugach terrane (CGT) and the composite Peninsular/Wrangellia terrane (PET/WRT) are thin (< 10 km), rootless sheets bounded on the south by north-dipping thrust faults that sole into a shallow, horizontal, low-velocity zone. The CGT has been thrust at least 40 km beneath the PET/WRT along the Border Ranges fault system (BRFS). Adjacent to the BRFS, uplift and erosion of 30-40 km since Jurassic time have exposed blueschist-facies rocks in the CGT and mafic and ultramafic cumulate rocks in the PET/WRT. Four paired north-dipping layers of low and high seismic velocities extend beneath the northern CGT and southern PET/WRT and may be slices of subducted oceanic crust and upper mantle; the upper two pairs may now be joined to the continental plate. 15 references, 5 figures.

Wrangell Benioff zone, southern Alaska

The first unequivocal evidence for the existence of a Benioff zone that may be related to the Quaternary Wrangell volcanoes comes from a set of 86 well-located hypocenters for earthquakes smaller than about magnitude 4 in the region between lat 61 and 62.5°N and between long 142 and 145.5°W. About half of the earthquakes occur at depths of 25 km or less. Below 40 km a clearly defined north-northeast–dipping zone of seismicity, here termed the “Wrangell Benioff zone,” extends to a depth of about 85 km and continues for about 115 km along strike, subparallel to the volcanic trend. The western end of the zone may be offset from the northern end of the much more active Aleutian Benioff zone. Where the Benioff zone shoals to 30 to 40 km, it becomes nearly horizontal and cannot be clearly distinguished from upper-plate seismicity. It is uncertain whether the subducted plate segment that contains the Wrangell Benioff zone is structurally part of the Pacific plate or the Yakutat block.

Point Mugu, California, Earthquake of 21 February 1973 and Its Aftershocks

Seismological investigations show that the Point Mugu earthquake involved north-south crustal shortening deep within the complex fault zone that marks the southern front of the Transverse Ranges province. This earthquake sequence results from the same stress system responsible for the deformation in this province in the Pliocene through Holocene and draws attention to the significant earthquake hazard that the southern frontal fault system poses to the Los Angeles metropolitan area.

Earthquake Shaking and Damage to Buildings: Recent evidence for severe ground shaking raises questions about the earthquake resistance of structures.

Ground shaking close to the causative fault of an earthquake is more intense than it was previously believed to be. This raises the possibility that large numbers of buildings and other structures are not sufficiently resistant for the intense levels of shaking that can occur close to the fault. Many structures were built before earthquake codes were adopted; others were built according to codes formulated when less was known about the intensity of near-fault shaking. Although many building types are more resistant than conventional design analyses imply, the margin of safety is difficult to quantify. Many modern structures, such as freeways, have not been subjected to and tested by near-fault shaking in major earthquakes (magnitude 7 or greater). Damage patterns in recent moderate-sized earthquakes occurring in or adjacent to urbanized areas (17), however, indicate that many structures, including some modern ones designed to meet earthquake code requirements, cannot withstand the severe shaking that can occur close to a fault. It is necessary to review the ground motion assumed and the methods utilized in the design of important existing structures and, if necessary, to strengthen or modify the use of structures that are found to be weak. New structures situated close to active faults should be designed on the basis of ground motion estimates greater than those used in the past. The ultimate balance between risk of earthquake losses and cost for both remedial strengthening and improved earthquake-resistant construction must be decided by the public. Scientists and engineers must inform the public about earthquake shaking and its effect on structures. The exposure to damage from seismic shaking is steadily increasing because of continuing urbanization and the increasing complexity of lifeline systems, such as power, water, transportation, and communication systems. In the near future we should expect additional painful examples of the damage potential of moderate-sized earthquakes in urban areas. Over a longer time span, however, we can significantly reduce the risk to life and property from seismic shaking through better land utilization, improved building codes and construction practices, and at least the gradual replacement of poor buildings by more resistant buildings. Progress toward reducing risk from seismic shaking through better building design is slowed by deficiencies in our knowledge about the nature of damaging ground motion and the failure mechanisms in structures. For example, lacking observational data, seismologists must rely on simplified theoretical and numerical models of the earthquake process to estimate near-fault ground motion, especially for earthquakes as large as magnitude 7 and 8. Because such models have not been adequately tested against data, their reliability is unknown. Engineers lack detailed information about failure processes in structures during an earthquake. Although many structures have been instrumented to measure their response to an earthquake, few records have been obtained from buildings that actually sustained significant structural damage and few structures are properly instrumented to measure all the modes of deformation that are likely to contribute to failure. Moreover, the fact that many structures have withstood ground motion more intense than that assumed in their design indicates that conventional methods of design do not take into account important contributions to earthquake resistance by nonstructural elements and by the ability of structural elements to deform inelastically without necessarily causing failure of the structure. It is fortunate when such reserve resistance exists, but better understanding of the sources of reserve strength is needed to determine how large a margin of safety they confer and how they might be affected by changes in construction practices and materials with time. In the next few years we look forward to significant advances in knowledge and to more effective application of what is already known, largely because of substantial funding of research related to seismic engineering by the National Science Foundation (18). The increasing number of strong-motion seismographs operating in seismically active regions (19) will likely provide for the first time a number of records of damaging levels of ground motion. Significant effort is being directed toward obtaining near-fault records, although many probable sites of future large earthquakes remain inadequately instrumented, especially outside the conterminous United States. New and more complete information on building response and damage mechanisms will be obtained by improved instrumentation of structures and through laboratory investigations of failure in structures and structural elements. Further developments in computer technology and in computer modeling techniques will permit more realistic simulations of the seismic response of soils and structures that take into account their inelastic behavior and their strain-dependent properties. Earthquake design codes will continually be revised to better utilize existing knowledge concerning the nature of strong ground motion and the dynamic behavior of buildings during earthquakes and to incorporate new knowledge and also experiences gained from future earthquakes. We believe that application of new knowledge, improvements in earthquake-resistant design and construction, and remedial strengthening or replacement of weak existing structures can significantly reduce our current level of exposure to earthquake hazards.

Statistical forecasting of repetitious dome failures during the waning eruption of Redoubt Volcano, Alaska, February-April 1990

Abstract The waning phase of the 1989–1990 eruption of Redoubt Volcano in the Cook Inlet region of south-central Alaska comprised a quasi-regular pattern of repetitious dome growth and destruction that lasted from February 15 to late April 1990. The dome failures produced ash plumes hazardous to airline traffic. In response to this hazard, the Alaska Volcano Observatory sought to forecast these ash-producing events using two approaches. One approach built on early successes in issuing warnings before major eruptions on December 14, 1989 and January 2, 1990. These warnings were based largely on changes in seismic activity related to the occurrence of precursory swarms of long-period seismic events. The search for precursory swarms of long-period seismicity was continued through the waning phase of the eruption and led to warnings before tephra eruptions on March 23 and April 6. The observed regularity of dome failures after February 15 suggested that a statistical forecasting method based on a constant-rate failure model might also be successful. The first statistical forecast was issued on March 16 after seven events had occurred, at an average interval of 4.5 days. At this time, the interval between dome failures abruptly lengthened. Accordingly, the forecast was unsuccessful and further forecasting was suspended until the regularity of subsequent failures could be confirmed. Statistical forecasting resumed on April 12, after four dome failure episodes separated by an average of 7.8 days. One dome failure (April 15) was successfully forecast using a 70% confidence window, and a second event (April 21) was narrowly missed before the end of the activity. The cessation of dome failures after April 21 resulted in a concluding false alarm. Although forecasting success during the eruption was limited, retrospective analysis shows that early and consistent application of the statistical method using a constant-rate failure model and a 90% confidence window could have yielded five successful forecasts and two false alarms; no events would have been missed. On closer examination, the intervals between successive dome failures are not uniform but tend to increase with time. This increase attests to the continuous, slowly decreasing supply of magma to the surface vent during the waning phase of the eruption. The domes formed in a precarious position in a breach in the summit crater rim where they were susceptible to gravitational collapse. The instability of the February 15–April 21 domes relative to the earlier domes is attributed to reaming the lip of the vent by a laterally directed explosion during the major dome-destroying eruption of February 15, a process which would leave a less secure foundation for subsequent domes.

1984 Results of Trans-Alaska Crustal Transect in Chugach Mountains and Copper River Basin, Alaska: ABSTRACT

The Trans-Alaska Crustal Transect (TACT) program, a multidisciplinary investigation of the continental crust and its evolution along the Trans-Alaska pipeline corridor, was started by the USGS during 1984. Preliminary results of geologic, geophysical, and wide-angle reflection/refraction data obtained across the Chugach terrane (CGT) and the composite Wrangellia/Peninsular terrane (WRT/PET) suggest the following: (a) The CGT is composed of accretionary sequences that include, from south to north, Late Cretaceous schistose flysch, uppermost Jurassic to Early Cretaceous sheared melange, and Early(?) Jurassic blueschist/greenschist. (b) The CGT accretionary sequences have local broad, low-amplitude magnetic or gravity anomalies. (c) Seismic data show that the CGT along latit de 61°N, by alternating high- (6.9-8.0? km/sec) and low-velocity layers is suggestive of multiple thin slices of subducted oceanic crust and upper mantle. (d) Mafic and ultramafic cumulate rocks along the south margin of the WRT/PET have strong magnetic and gravity signatures and are interpreted as the uplifted root of a Jurassic magmatic arc superimposed on a late Paleozoic volcanic arc. Magnetic data suggest that comparable rocks underlie most of the PET. (e) The north-dipping Border Ranges fault (BRF) marks the suture along which the northern margin of the CGT was relatively underthrust at least 40 km beneath the WRT/PET. (f) Beneath the northern CGT and southern WRT/PET, a prominent seismic reflector (v = 7.7 km/sec), suggestive of oceanic upper mantle rocks, dips about 3°N and extends from a depth of 12 km beneath the Tasnuna River to 16 km beneath the BRF, where the dip appears to steepen to about 15° beneath the southern margin of the PET. End_of_Article - Last_Page 673------------