John C. Lahr

Precursory swarms of long-period events at Redoubt Volcano (1989-1990), Alaska: Their origin and use as a forecasting tool

Abstract During the eruption of Redoubt Volcano from December 1989 through April 1990, the Alaska Volcano Observatory issued advance warnings of several tephra eruptions based on changes in seismic activity related to the occurrence of precursory swarms of long-period (LP) seismic events (dominant period of about 0.5 s). The initial eruption on December 14 occurred after 23 years of quiescence and was heralded by a 23-hour swarm of LP events that ended abruptly with the eruption. After a series of vent-clearing explosions over the next few days, dome growth began on December 21. Another swarm, with LP events similar to those of the first, began on the 26th and ended in a major tephra eruption on January 2. Eruptions continued over the next two weeks and then ceased until February 15, when a large eruption initiated a long phase of repetitive dome-building and dome-destroying episodes that continued into April. Warnings were issued before the major events on December 14 and January 2, but as the eruptive sequence continued after January 2, the energy of the swarms decreased and forecasting became more difficult. A significant but less intense swarm preceded the February 15 eruption, which was not forecast. This eruption destroyed the only seismograph on the volcanic edifice and stymied forecasting until March 4, when the first of three new stations was installed within 3 km of the active vent. From March 4 to the end of the sequence on April 21, there were eight eruptions, six of which were preceded by detectable swarms of LP events. Although weak, these swarms provided the basis for warnings issued before the eruptions on March 23 and April 6. The initial swarm on December 13 had the following features: (1) short duration (23 hours); (2) a rapidly accelerating rate of seismic energy release over the first 18 hours of the swarm, followed by a decline of activity during the 5 hours preceding the eruption; (3) a magnitude range from −0.4 to 1.6; (4) nearly identical LP signatures with a dominant period near 0.5 s; (5) dilatational first motions everywhere; and (6) a stationary source location at a depth of 1.4 km beneath the crater. This occurrence of long-period events suggests a model involving the interaction of magma with groundwater in which magmatic gases, steam and water drive a fixed conduit at a stationary point throughout the swarm. The initiation of that sequence of events is analogous to the failure of a pressure-relief valve connecting a lower, supercharged magma-dominated reservoir to a shallow hydrothermal system. A three-dimensional model of a vibrating fluid-filled crack recently developed by Chouet is found to be compatible with the seismic data and yields the following parameters for the LP source: crack length, 280–380 m; crack width, 140–190 m; crack thickness, 0.05–0.20 m; crack stiffness, 100–200; sound speed of fluid, 0.8–1.3 km/s; compressional-wave speed of rock, 5.1 km/s; density ratio of fluid to rock, ≈0.4; and ratio of bulk modulus of fluid to rigidity of rock, 0.03–0.07. The fluid-filled crack is excited intermittently by an impulsive pressure drop that varies in magnitude within the range of 0.4 to 40 bar. Such disturbance appears to be consistent with a triggering mechanism associated with choked flow conditions in the crack.

Three-dimensional P and S wave velocity structure of Redoubt Volcano, Alaska

The three-dimensional P and S wave structure of Redoubt Volcano, Alaska, and the underlying crust to depths of 7–8 km is determined from 6219 P wave and 4008 S wave first-arrival times recorded by a 30-station seismograph network deployed on and around the volcano. First-arrival times are calculated using a finite-difference technique, which allows for flexible parameterization of the slowness model and easy inclusion of topography and source-receiver geometry. The three-dimensional P wave velocity structure and hypocenters are determined simultaneously, while the three-dimensional S wave velocity model is determined using the relocated seismicity and an initial S wave velocity model derived from the P wave velocity model assuming an average Vp/Vs ratio of 1.78. Convergence is steady with approximately 73% and 52% reduction in P and S wave arrival time RMS, respectively, after 10 iterations. The most prominent feature observed in the three-dimensional velocity models derived for both P and S waves is a relative low-velocity, near-vertical, pipelike structure approximately 1 km in diameter that extends from 1 to 6 km beneath sea level. This feature aligns axially with the bulk of seismicity and is interpreted as a highly fractured and altered zone encompassing a magma conduit. The velocity structure beneath the north flank of the volcano between depths of 1 and 6 km is characterized by large lateral velocity variations. High velocities within this region are interpreted as remnant dikes and sills and low velocities as regions along which magma migrates. No large low-velocity body suggestive of a magma chamber is resolved in the upper 7–8 km of the crust.

Holocene Pacific–North American plate interaction in southern Alaska: Implications for the Yakataga seismic gap

The St. Elias, Alaska, earthquake (magnitude 7.1 M s ) on February 28, 1979, occurred along the complex Pacific–North American plate boundary between Yakutat Bay and Prince William Sound, rupturing only a fraction of the seismic gap identified in that region. To aid in evaluating the potential for, and likely site of, a future earthquake occurring in the remainder of the gap, we have formulated a kinematic model of neotectonic deformation in southern Alaska from available geologic and seismic data. In this model the part of the North American plate bordering on the Gulf of Alaska is divided into three subblocks, which are partially coupled to the Pacific plate. On the basis of the model, the gap-filling rupture or ruptures would most likely be along the north-dipping thrust faults of the Pamplona zone between Icy Bay and the eastern end of the Aleutian Trench. If the accumulated strain of 3.8 m postulated for this region were released suddenly in one event involving the remainder of the gap, the result would be an earthquake as large as magnitude 8.

Seismic evolution of the 1989-1990 eruption sequence of Redoubt Volcano, Alaska

Abstract Redoubt Volcano in south-central Alaska erupted between December 1989 and June 1990 in a sequence of events characterized by large tephra eruptions, pyroclastic flows, lahars and debris flows, and episodes of dome growth. The eruption was monitored by a network of five to nine seismic stations located 1 to 22 km from the summit crater. Notable features of the eruption seismicity include : (1) small long-period events beginning in September 1989 which increased slowly in number during November and early December; (2) an intense swarm of long-period events which preceded the initial eruptions on December 14 by 23 hours; (3) shallow swarms (0 to 3 km) of volcano-tectonic events following each eruption on December 15; (4) a persistent cluster of deep (6 to 10 km) volcano-tectonic earthquakes initiated by the eruptions on December 15, which continued throughout and beyond the eruption; (5) an intense swarm of long-period events which preceded the eruptions on January 2; and (6) nine additional intervals of increased long-period seismicity each of which preceded a tephra eruption. Hypocenters of volcano-tectonic earthquakes suggest the presence of a magma source region at 6–10 km depth. Earthquakes at these depths were initiated by the tephra eruptions on December 15 and likely represent the readjustment of stresses in the country rock associated with the removal of magma from these depths. The locations and time-history of these earthquakes coupled with the eruptive behavior of the volcano suggest this region was the source of most of the erupted material during the 1989–1990 eruption. This source region appears to be connected to the surface by a narrow pipe-like conduit as inferred from the hypocenters of volcano-tectonic earthquakes. Concentrations of shallow volcano-tectonic earthquakes followed each of the tephra eruptions on December 15; these shocks may represent stress readjustment in the wall rock related to the removal of magma and volatiles at these depths. This shallow zone was the source area of the majority of long-period seismicity through the remainder of the eruption. The long-period seismicity likely reflects the pressurization of the shallow portions of the magmatic system.

Seismological aspects of the 1989–1990 eruptions at redoubt volcano, Alaska: the SSAM perspective

Abstract SSAM is a simple and inexpensive tool for continuous monitoring of average seismic amplitudes within selected frequency bands in near real-time on a PC-based data acquisition system. During the 1989–1990 eruption sequence at Redoubt Volcano, the potential of SSAM to aid in rapid identification of precursory Long-Period (LP) event swarms was realized, and since this time SSAM has been incorporated in routine monitoring efforts of the Alaska Volcano Observatory. In particular, an eruption that occurred on April 6 was successfully forecast primarily on the basis of recognizing the precursory LP activity on SSAM. Of twenty-two significant eruptions that occurred between December 14 and April 21, eleven had precursory swarms longer than one hour in duration that could be detected on SSAM. For individual swarms, the patterns of relative spectral amplitudes are distinct at each station and remain largely stationary through time, thus indicating that one source may have been preferentially and repeatedly activated throughout the swarm. Typically, a single spectral band dominates the signal at each seismic station: for the vigorous one-day swarm that preceded the first eruption on December 14, signals were sharply peaked in the 1.9–2.7 Hz band at the closest station, located 4 km from the vent, but were dominated by 1.3–1.9 Hz energy at three more distant stations located 7.5–22 km from the vent. The tendency for the signals from different swarms recorded at the same station to be peaked in the same frequency band suggests that all of the sources are characterized by a predominant length scale. Signals from the precursory LP swarms became weaker as the eruption sequence progressed, and swarms that occurred in March and April could only be detected at seismographs on the volcanic edifice. Onset times of precursory LP swarms prior to eruptions ranged from a few hours to about one week, but after the initial vent-clearing phase that ended December 19 these intervals tended to become progressively shorter for successive swarms. These trends in the relative onset times and intensities of successive precursory LP swarms are consistent with an overall depressurization of the magmatic system through time. In general, each of the swarms had an emergent onset, but the intensities did not always increase steadily until the eruptions. Instead, as the time of an eruption approached the intensity usually increased more rapidly before peaking and then declining prior to the eruption; for three of the swarms, two distinct peaks in intensity were apparent. The time intervals between final peaks in swarm intensity and ensuing eruptions ranged from about 2 hours to almost 2 days, but the peaks always occurred closer to the eruptions than to the swarm onsets. Both the onset of LP swarm activity and a decline in intensity prior to an eruption may represent critical points in the process of pressurization that drives the flow of fluids and gas in a sealed magmatic system. A notable exception to this pattern is the eruption of March 9 which lacked a detectable precursory LP swarm, but was followed by an unusually long period of strong LP seismicity that may have been stimulated by a depressurization of the magmatic system resulting from dome failure. On both December 14 and January 2, the spectra of early syn-eruptive signals have peaked signatures much like those of the spectra of precursory LP activity from shortly before the eruptions; these similarities may indicate that the source of precursory seismicity continued to be active during at least the early part of each eruption. In syn-eruptive signals from March and April recorded at stations on the volcanic edifice, the dominant spectral energy progressively shifts with time during the eruption to lower frequencies; at least part of the energy in these signals may have been generated by the debris flows associated with dome failures.

Wrangell Benioff zone, southern Alaska

The first unequivocal evidence for the existence of a Benioff zone that may be related to the Quaternary Wrangell volcanoes comes from a set of 86 well-located hypocenters for earthquakes smaller than about magnitude 4 in the region between lat 61 and 62.5°N and between long 142 and 145.5°W. About half of the earthquakes occur at depths of 25 km or less. Below 40 km a clearly defined north-northeast–dipping zone of seismicity, here termed the “Wrangell Benioff zone,” extends to a depth of about 85 km and continues for about 115 km along strike, subparallel to the volcanic trend. The western end of the zone may be offset from the northern end of the much more active Aleutian Benioff zone. Where the Benioff zone shoals to 30 to 40 km, it becomes nearly horizontal and cannot be clearly distinguished from upper-plate seismicity. It is uncertain whether the subducted plate segment that contains the Wrangell Benioff zone is structurally part of the Pacific plate or the Yakutat block.

Oroville earthquakes: Normal faulting in the Sierra Nevada foothills

Aftershocks of the Oroville, California, earthquake of 1 August 1975 define a 16- by 12-kilometer fault plane striking north-south and dipping 60 degrees to the west to a depth of 10 kilometers. Focal mechanisms from P-wave first motions indicate normal faulting with the western, Great Valley side downdropped relative to the Sierra Nevada block. The northward projection of the fault plane passes beneath Oroville Dam and crops out under the reservoir.

Statistical forecasting of repetitious dome failures during the waning eruption of Redoubt Volcano, Alaska, February-April 1990

Abstract The waning phase of the 1989–1990 eruption of Redoubt Volcano in the Cook Inlet region of south-central Alaska comprised a quasi-regular pattern of repetitious dome growth and destruction that lasted from February 15 to late April 1990. The dome failures produced ash plumes hazardous to airline traffic. In response to this hazard, the Alaska Volcano Observatory sought to forecast these ash-producing events using two approaches. One approach built on early successes in issuing warnings before major eruptions on December 14, 1989 and January 2, 1990. These warnings were based largely on changes in seismic activity related to the occurrence of precursory swarms of long-period seismic events. The search for precursory swarms of long-period seismicity was continued through the waning phase of the eruption and led to warnings before tephra eruptions on March 23 and April 6. The observed regularity of dome failures after February 15 suggested that a statistical forecasting method based on a constant-rate failure model might also be successful. The first statistical forecast was issued on March 16 after seven events had occurred, at an average interval of 4.5 days. At this time, the interval between dome failures abruptly lengthened. Accordingly, the forecast was unsuccessful and further forecasting was suspended until the regularity of subsequent failures could be confirmed. Statistical forecasting resumed on April 12, after four dome failure episodes separated by an average of 7.8 days. One dome failure (April 15) was successfully forecast using a 70% confidence window, and a second event (April 21) was narrowly missed before the end of the activity. The cessation of dome failures after April 21 resulted in a concluding false alarm. Although forecasting success during the eruption was limited, retrospective analysis shows that early and consistent application of the statistical method using a constant-rate failure model and a 90% confidence window could have yielded five successful forecasts and two false alarms; no events would have been missed. On closer examination, the intervals between successive dome failures are not uniform but tend to increase with time. This increase attests to the continuous, slowly decreasing supply of magma to the surface vent during the waning phase of the eruption. The domes formed in a precarious position in a breach in the summit crater rim where they were susceptible to gravitational collapse. The instability of the February 15–April 21 domes relative to the earlier domes is attributed to reaming the lip of the vent by a laterally directed explosion during the major dome-destroying eruption of February 15, a process which would leave a less secure foundation for subsequent domes.

85.7 – The HYPOELLIPSE Earthquake Location Program

This chapter focuses on the HYPOELLIPSE Earthquake Location Program. The earthquake location program HYPOELLIPSE, first published in 1979 and subsequently updated with added features, was initially developed to locate crustal and subcrustal earthquakes of southern Alaska using arrival times recorded by a sparse regional seismograph network. This is a more difficult problem than locating shallow earthquakes within a dense network, which is the problem generally faced within California, so HYPOELLIPSE includes many more user-adjustable parameters than does HYPO71, the earthquake location program developed for California that is the ancestor of HYPOELLIPSE. Travel times may be computed from velocity models or travel-time tables. The program HYPOTABLE, which is included with this distribution, can create spherical-earth travel-time tables for use with HYPOELLIPSE. This allows the program to be used with stations beyond the distance at which significant travel-time errors would be introduced by a fiat-layer travel-time model. A relatively new feature of HYPOELLIPSE is the ability to work in areas with large topographic relief. Previous versions assumed that all of the stations were located at the same elevation and that small elevation differences could be accounted for by station elevation corrections. HYPOELLIPSE currently allows stations to be “embedded” within the velocity model, and will correctly compute travel time and take-off angles even for stations that are at a lower elevation than the earthquake.

85.17 The HYPO71 earthquake location program

This chapter focuses on the HYPO71 Earthquake Location Program. HYPO71, a computer program for determining hypocenter, magnitude, and first-motion pattern of local earthquakes, was first released in 1971. It is perhaps the first earthquake location program that achieved worldwide usage, as evidenced by the fact that about 1000 copies of the HYPO71 manual were requested and distributed. Although Geiger (1912) introduced an earthquake location procedure based on the least squares in 1910, it was not a practical procedure until digital computers became common in the 1960s. In the early 1960s, many seismologists around the world wrote earthquake location programs based on Geigers method, such as HYPOLAYR, which included a listing of the source code. For ease of routine data processing of a large regional seismic network, the HYPO71 program was written with an emphasis on a simple user interface for batch processing. The original HYPO71 program was dated December 21, 1971, and a users manual was released. The HYPO71 program does not solve the equations in the Geigers method by the traditional matrix inversion techniques as almost all other earthquake programs do. It uses a multiple stepwise regression method to adjust hypocenter parameters only if it is statistically significant above a prescribed critical F-value. This method reduces to the traditional technique if the critical F-value is set to zero.