Robert Dennis McElroy

The application of mathematical modeling for commercial nuclear instrument design, development, and calibration

Mathematical modeling of nuclear instruments has evolved over the last 40 years. First came simple curve fitting operations; then Monte Carlo processes were made available to large research facilities; and then, due to the power of the computer, became widely available to normal radiation instrumentation users. Canberra has been extensively using MCNP for design and calibration of large and complicated instrumentation to create and optimize designs that would be prohibitively expensive with radioactive sources. For gamma spectroscopy applications we have developed a software application called ISOCS that combines MCNP pre-calculations and ray-tracing operations for speed. Examples of the use of these tools are presented.

Safeguards Considerations for Thorium Fuel Cycles

Abstract By around 2025, thorium-based fuel cycles are likely to be deployed internationally. States such as China and India are pursuing research, development, and deployment pathways toward a number of commercial-scale thorium fuel cycles, and they are already building test reactors and the associated fuel cycle infrastructure. In the future, the potential exists for these emerging programs to sell, export, and deploy thorium fuel cycle technology in other states. Without technically adequate international safeguards protocols and measures in place, any future potential clandestine misuse of these fuel cycles could go undetected, compromising the deterrent value of these protocols and measures. The development of safeguards approaches for thorium-based fuel cycles is therefore a matter of some urgency. Yet, the focus of the international safeguards community remains mainly on safeguarding conventional 235U- and 239Pu-based fuel cycles while the safeguards challenges of thorium-uranium fuel cycles remain largely uninvestigated. This raises the following question: Is the International Atomic Energy Agency and international safeguards system ready for thorium fuel cycles? Furthermore, is the safeguards technology of today sufficiently mature to meet the verification challenges posed by thorium-based fuel cycles? In defining these and other related research questions, the objectives of this paper are to identify key safeguards considerations for thorium-based fuel cycles and to call for an early dialogue between the international safeguards and the nuclear fuel cycle communities to prepare for the potential safeguards challenges associated with these fuel cycles. In this paper, it is concluded that directed research and development programs are required to meet the identified safeguards challenges and to take timely action in preparation for the international deployment of thorium fuel cycles.

Performance of a Boron-Coated-Straw- Based HLNCC for International Safeguards Applications

3He gas has been used in various scientific and security applications for decades, but it is now in short supply. Alternatives to 3He detectors are currently being integrated and tested in neutron coincidence counter designs, of a type which are widely used in nuclear safeguards for nuclear materials assay. A boron-coated-straw-based design, similar to the High-Level Neutron Coincidence Counter-II, was built by Proportional Technologies Inc., and has been tested by the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) at both the JRC in Ispra and ORNL. Characterization measurements, along with nondestructive assays of various plutonium samples, have been conducted to determine the performance of this coincidence counter replacement in comparison with other similar counters. This paper presents results of these measurements.

K-shell fluorescence yields and their uncertainties for use in hybrid K-edge densitometry

Hybrid K-edge densitometry (HKED) is a non-destructive analytical assay technique used to provide rapid determination of actinide concentration in tank solutions. Of special interest for HKED is the estimation, along with associated uncertainties, of the ratio of the flouresence yeilds, ωK, of uranium and plutonium. Limited experimental data for ωK(Z) as a function of atomic number, Z, exist and the data are subject to experimental uncertainty. Previous studies have provided values for ωK(Z) with uncertainty estimates but have not included covariance information. We use a phenomenological model with a bootstrapping method to generate the ratio ωK(94)/ωK(92) and associated uncertainty.

A Critical Examination of Figure of Merit (FOM). Assessing the Goodness-of-Fit in Gamma/X-ray Peak Analysis

In this paper we develop and investigate several criteria for assessing how well a proposed spectral form fits observed spectra. We consider the classical improved figure of merit (FOM) along with several modifications, as well as criteria motivated by Poisson regression from the statistical literature. We also develop a new FOM that is based on the statistical idea of the bootstrap. A spectral simulator has been developed to assess the performance of these different criteria under multiple data configurations.

MGAv10: The Latest Evolution in the Multi-Group Analysis Code

At many points in the safe and transparent handling of plutonium materials the relative isotopic composition of the principle isotopes needs to be known. Sometimes this information may be of primary interest — such as in the verification of safeguard declarations or in the confirmation of the reactivity of mixed oxide fuel. At other times, e.g., for radioactive waste characterization, the isotopic composition may be needed to calculate specific thermal power or specific spontaneous fission rates for the item under study, which can subsequently be combined with calorimetric and correlated neutron counting measurements, respectively, in order to make quantitative assessments of the mass of Pu and associated nuclides that are present in an item. The Multi-Group Analysis code MGA is a highly regarded and widely used computer code for the analysis of high resolution gamma ray spectra in order to extract the relative isotopic composition of plutonium for a diversity of items with minimal prior information. It has been honed over many years to give reliable results for a broad range of measurement scenarios commonly encountered in the fuel cycle. The nuclear industry is not dormant however and the demands on such codes continue to shift as a combination of technology and necessity open up new application areas. For example, while MGA had its origins in the analysis of clean spectra on product material principally for nuclear safeguards applications taken with germanium detectors having good low-energy resolution, it is now widely applied to the characterization of drummed waste forms and the complex spectra from such items acquired with much larger volume and poorer resolution detectors often used in such applications for the dual use of quantitative assay of the many gamma-emitters. This new domain of operational experience resulted in the need to enhance MGA to deal with spectra of poor statistical quality and also to cope with some of the complications that arise in the analysis of unusual spectra. Together with some additional changes made to incorporate feedback since the release of version 9.63 (which had minor revisions denoted by the letters A through H) of the code this has resulted in the creation of MGA v10. In this paper we shall outline the main changes to the code explaining why they were conceived and implemented. We illustrate what kinds of measurement problems can now be addressed over and above the previous capabilities which have been preserved and verified by the same set of regression tests that have been applied to previous generation of the code.© 2009 ASME