Robert Dunford

Potential and constraints of Unmanned Aerial Vehicle technology for the characterization of Mediterranean riparian forest

Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) technology provides potential for very high spatial resolution (<25 cm) mapping of relatively large areas at a user-defined re-survey frequency. In a riparian context, UAV technology provides a mechanism for riparian managers to (a) quantify riparian terrain and vegetation units and (b) identify standing dead wood and canopy mortality. In this study a paraglider UAV was used to survey 174 ha at 6.8–21.8 cm ground resolution. Pixel-based and object-oriented classification approaches were used at the scale of a single image and a channel mosaic. Significant potential was demonstrated: vegetation units were classified with an accuracy of kappa = 0.79 and standing dead wood units were identified with an average accuracy with respect to omission and commission errors of 80% and 65%, respectively. Work across multiple images identified that major constraints currently result from factors such as illumination conditions and sensor movement during flight, which create variations in spatial resolution and radiometry. It is expected that with further methodological refinement and more complex methods of automated radiometric correction UAV technology can provide the flexibility to rapidly produce very high resolution map products to aid riparian management.

Analysis of Post-flood Recruitment Patterns in Braided- Channel Rivers at Multiple Scales Based on an Image Series Collected by Unmanned Aerial Vehicles, Ultra-light Aerial Vehicles, and Satellites

This paper uses imagery captured by ultra-light and unmanned aerial vehicles (ULAVs) in combination with satellite remote sensing to explore vegetation development on braided reaches in the Southern and Eastern French Alps. Findings demonstrate that while asexual reproduction processes dominate, sexual reproduction through seed dissemination and wind transport play a significant role during periods of low flow following large floods. This progressive vegetation establishment leads to a general trend of river corridor narrowing. Key climatic conditions lead some years to be critical to initial vegetation development. Sensitivity to encroachment depends on local controls, such as rainfall conditions, distance to water table, local topography, seed availability, summer temperature, and dryness.

Assessing uncertainties in land cover projections

Understanding uncertainties in land cover projections is critical to investigating land-based climate mitigation policies, assessing the potential of climate adaptation strategies and quantifying the impacts of land cover change on the climate system. Here, we identify and quantify uncertainties in global and European land cover projections over a diverse range of model types and scenarios, extending the analysis beyond the agro-economic models included in previous comparisons. The results from 75 simulations over 18 models are analysed and show a large range in land cover area projections, with the highest variability occurring in future cropland areas. We demonstrate systematic differences in land cover areas associated with the characteristics of the modelling approach, which is at least as great as the differences attributed to the scenario variations. The results lead us to conclude that a higher degree of uncertainty exists in land use projections than currently included in climate or earth system projections. To account for land use uncertainty, it is recommended to use a diverse set of models and approaches when assessing the potential impacts of land cover change on future climate. Additionally, further work is needed to better understand the assumptions driving land use model results and reveal the causes of uncertainty in more depth, to help reduce model uncertainty and improve the projections of land cover.

Exploring climate change vulnerability across sectors and scenarios using indicators of impacts and coping capacity

Addressing climate change vulnerability requires an understanding of both the level of climate impacts and the capacity of the exposed population to cope. This study developed a methodology for allowing users to explore vulnerability to changes in ecosystem services as a result of climatic and socio-economic changes. It focuses on the vulnerability of Europe across multiple sectors by combining the outputs of a regional integrated assessment (IA) model, the CLIMSAVE IA Platform, with maps of coping capacity based on the five capitals approach. The presented methodology enables stakeholder-derived socio-economic futures to be represented within a quantitative integrated modelling framework in a way that changes spatially and temporally with the socio-economic storyline. Vulnerability was mapped for six key ecosystem services in 40 combined climate and socio-economic scenarios. The analysis shows that, whilst the north and west of Europe are generally better placed to cope with climate impacts than the south and east, coping could be improved in all areas. Furthermore, whilst the lack of coping capacity in dystopian scenarios often leads to greater vulnerability, there are complex interactions between sectors that lead to patterns of vulnerability that vary spatially, with scenario and by sector even within the more utopian futures.

Late Chalcolithic and Early Bronze Age Landscapes of Settlement and Mobility in the Middle Euphrates: A Reassessment

Abstract Urbanization occupies an ambiguous position in the development of the Middle Euphrates region of Turkey and Syria, in part because the area frequently formed a contested region between other stronger Early Bronze Age polities. This paper aims to review evidence from a series of archaeological surveys to illustrate trends in settlement during the 4th and 3rd millennium BC. Re-analysis of survey data from three exemplar regions in the Middle Euphrates demonstrates that by including settlement away from the main Euphrates Valley we get a picture of two main zones of settlement corresponding to agro-ecological zones. In the northern zone, settlements underwent phases of nucleation and dispersal through time, but long-term configurations were relatively stable. In contrast, a southern zone, south of the Sajur Valley, was characterized by rapid colonization and some degree of boom and bust growth of towns, perhaps encouraged by the opportunities afforded by the high risk but high rewards of the ‘zone of uncertainty’. Although ecological conditions and climate change played a role in settlement growth and failure, in part by setting the parameters for agro-pastoral production, it is evident that socio-political circumstances, chronic conflict and sheer opportunism were probably key to both the growth and decline of the southern settlements.

Forest land cover continues to exacerbate freshwater acidification despite decline in sulphate emissions

Evidence from a multi-date regional-scale analysis of both high-flow and annual-average water quality data from Galloway, south-west Scotland, demonstrates that forest land cover continues to exacerbate freshwater acidification. This is in spite of significant reductions in airborne pollutants. The relationship between freshwater sulphate and forest cover has decreased from 1996 to 2006 indicating a decrease in pollutant scavenging. The relationship between forest cover and freshwater acidity (pH) is, however, still present over the same period, and does not show conclusive signs of having declined. Furthermore, evidence for forest cover contributing to a chlorine bias in marine ion capture suggests that forest scavenging of sea-salts may mean that the forest acidification effect may continue in the absence of anthropogenic pollutant inputs, particularly in coastal areas.

Modelling the effects of cross-sectoral water allocation schemes in Europe

Future renewable water resources are likely to be insufficient to meet water demand for human use and minimum environmental flow requirements in many European regions. Hence, fair and equitable water allocation to different water use sectors and environmental needs is important for climate change adaptation in order to reduce negative effects on human well-being and aquatic ecosystems. We applied a system of coupled sectoral metamodels of water availability and water use in the domestic, manufacturing industry, electricity generation, and agricultural sectors to simulate the effects of generic water allocation schemes (WAS) at the European level. The relative performance of WAS in balancing adverse impacts on the water use sectors and aquatic ecosystems was analysed for an ensemble of 16 scenarios for the 2050s, which were built from the combination of four socio-economic scenarios, developed in the CLIMSAVE project, and four climate projections based on IPCC A1. The results indicate that significant physical water shortages may result from climate and socio-economic change in many regions of Europe, particularly in the Mediterranean. In the energy sector, average annual water demand can largely be met even in water allocation schemes that deprioritise the sector. However, prioritisation of agricultural water demand has significant adverse impacts on the domestic and manufacturing industry sectors. Cross-sectoral impacts were found to be lowest if at least one of the domestic and manufacturing sectors is assigned higher priority than agriculture. We conclude that adapting spatial patterns of water-intensive activities to renewable water availability across Europe, such as shifting irrigated agriculture to less water-stressed basins, could be an effective demand-side adaptation measure, and thus a candidate for support through EU policy.

Direct and indirect impacts of climate and socio-economic change in Europe: a sensitivity analysis for key land- and water-based sectors

Integrated cross-sectoral impact assessments facilitate a comprehensive understanding of interdependencies and potential synergies, conflicts, and trade-offs between sectors under changing conditions. This paper presents a sensitivity analysis of a European integrated assessment model, the CLIMSAVE integrated assessment platform (IAP). The IAP incorporates important cross-sectoral linkages between six key European land- and water-based sectors: agriculture, biodiversity, flooding, forests, urban, and water. Using the IAP, we investigate the direct and indirect implications of a wide range of climatic and socio-economic drivers to identify: (1) those sectors and regions most sensitive to future changes, (2) the mechanisms and directions of sensitivity (direct/indirect and positive/negative), (3) the form and magnitudes of sensitivity (linear/non-linear and strong/weak/insignificant), and (4) the relative importance of the key drivers across sectors and regions. The results are complex. Most sectors are either directly or indirectly sensitive to a large number of drivers (more than 18 out of 24 drivers considered). Over twelve of these drivers have indirect impacts on biodiversity, forests, land use diversity, and water, while only four drivers have indirect effects on flooding. In contrast, for the urban sector all the drivers are direct. Moreover, most of the driver–indicator relationships are non-linear, and hence there is the potential for ‘surprises’. This highlights the importance of considering cross-sectoral interactions in future impact assessments. Such systematic analysis provides improved information for decision-makers to formulate appropriate adaptation policies to maximise benefits and minimise unintended consequences.

Exploring scenario and model uncertainty in cross-sectoral integrated assessment approaches to climate change impacts

In this paper we present an uncertainty analysis of a cross-sectoral, regional-scale, Integrated Assessment Platform (IAP) for the assessment of climate change impacts, vulnerability and adaptation. The IAP couples simplified meta-models for a number of sectors (agriculture, forestry, urban development, biodiversity, flood and water resources management) within a user-friendly interface. Cross-sectoral interactions and feedbacks can be evaluated for a range of future scenarios with the aim of supporting a stakeholder dialogue and mutual learning. We present a method to address uncertainty in: i) future climate and socio-economic scenarios and ii) the interlinked network of meta-models that make up the IAP. A mixed-method approach is taken: formal numerical approaches, modeller interviews and network analysis are combined to provide a holistic uncertainty assessment that considers both quantifiable and un-quantifiable uncertainty. Results demonstrate that the combined quantitative-qualitative approach provides considerable advantages over traditional, validation-based uncertainty assessments. Combined fuzzy-set methods and network analysis methods allow maps of modeller certainty to be explored. The results indicate that validation statistics are not the only factors driving modeller certainty; a large range of other factors including the quality and availability of validation data, the meta-modelling process, inter-modeller trust, derivation methods, and pragmatic factors such as time, resources, skills and experience influence modeller certainty. We conclude that by identifying, classifying and exploring uncertainty in conjunction with the model developers, we can ensure not only that the modelling system itself improves, but that the decisions based on it can draw on the best available information: the projection itself, and a holistic understanding of the uncertainty associated with it.

Assessing policy robustness of climate change adaptation measures across sectors and scenarios

Recent research has increasingly focussed on whether long-term policies for adaptation to climate change are robust given uncertainties about future climate change, technological advances and alternative socio-economic development pathways. The aim of this study was to examine whether adaptation responses are ‘robust’, by looking at whether they reduce vulnerability to climate and socio-economic changes for a selection of ecosystem services across scenarios and two spatial scales: Europe (EU27 plus Norway and Switzerland) and a case study in Scotland. Outputs of the CLIMSAVE Integrated Assessment Platform (IAP) for multiple land-based sectors were used to test whether clusters of adaptation options referred to as policy archetypes reduced vulnerability to climate and socio-economic change for ecosystem service indicators related to biodiversity, flooding, water exploitation, land use diversity, land use intensity and food provision. The results show that the People-based Adaptation archetype is the most robust. This is because it reduces vulnerability by increasing coping capacity (people learn and build networks) and not only by reducing the impacts of climate and socio-economic change. By allowing comparative levels of vulnerability to be explored across sectors and scenarios, the CLIMSAVE approach provides a flexible tool for decision-makers and other stakeholders to increase understanding of which mixes of adaptation measures are robust responses to climate change.