Robert I. McDonald

Domesticated Nature: Shaping Landscapes and Ecosystems for Human Welfare

Like all species, humans have exercised their impulse to perpetuate and propagate themselves. In doing so, we have domesticated landscapes and ecosystems in ways that enhance our food supplies, reduce exposure to predators and natural dangers, and promote commerce. On average, the net benefits to humankind of domesticated nature have been positive. We have, of course, made mistakes, causing unforeseen changes in ecosystem attributes, while leaving few, if any, truly wild places on Earth. Going into the future, scientists can help humanity to domesticate nature more wisely by quantifying the tradeoffs among ecosystem services, such as how increasing the provision of one service may decrease ecosystem resilience and the provision of other services.

Urban growth, climate change, and freshwater availability

Nearly 3 billion additional urban dwellers are forecasted by 2050, an unprecedented wave of urban growth. While cities struggle to provide water to these new residents, they will also face equally unprecedented hydrologic changes due to global climate change. Here we use a detailed hydrologic model, demographic projections, and climate change scenarios to estimate per-capita water availability for major cities in the developing world, where urban growth is the fastest. We estimate the amount of water physically available near cities and do not account for problems with adequate water delivery or quality. Modeled results show that currently 150 million people live in cities with perennial water shortage, defined as having less than 100 L per person per day of sustainable surface and groundwater flow within their urban extent. By 2050, demographic growth will increase this figure to almost 1 billion people. Climate change will cause water shortage for an additional 100 million urbanites. Freshwater ecosystems in river basins with large populations of urbanites with insufficient water will likely experience flows insufficient to maintain ecological process. Freshwater fish populations will likely be impacted, an issue of special importance in regions such as Indias Western Ghats, where there is both rapid urbanization and high levels of fish endemism. Cities in certain regions will struggle to find enough water for the needs of their residents and will need significant investment if they are to secure adequate water supplies and safeguard functioning freshwater ecosystems for future generations.

Energy sprawl or energy efficiency: climate policy impacts on natural habitat for the United States of America.

Concern over climate change has led the U.S. to consider a cap-and-trade system to regulate emissions. Here we illustrate the land-use impact to U.S. habitat types of new energy development resulting from different U.S. energy policies. We estimated the total new land area needed by 2030 to produce energy, under current law and under various cap-and-trade policies, and then partitioned the area impacted among habitat types with geospatial data on the feasibility of production. The land-use intensity of different energy production techniques varies over three orders of magnitude, from 1.9–2.8 km2/TW hr/yr for nuclear power to 788–1000 km2/TW hr/yr for biodiesel from soy. In all scenarios, temperate deciduous forests and temperate grasslands will be most impacted by future energy development, although the magnitude of impact by wind, biomass, and coal to different habitat types is policy-specific. Regardless of the existence or structure of a cap-and-trade bill, at least 206,000 km2 will be impacted without substantial increases in energy efficiency, which saves at least 7.6 km2 per TW hr of electricity conserved annually and 27.5 km2 per TW hr of liquid fuels conserved annually. Climate policy that reduces carbon dioxide emissions may increase the areal impact of energy, although the magnitude of this potential side effect may be substantially mitigated by increases in energy efficiency. The possibility of widespread energy sprawl increases the need for energy conservation, appropriate siting, sustainable production practices, and compensatory mitigation offsets.

Global urbanization: can ecologists identify a sustainable way forward?

The year 2007 was the first year in which more than half of humanity lived in cities. Over the next 25 years, the world will see the addition of nearly one million km2 of urban area, occurring in tens of thousands of cities around the globe. The form these new neighborhoods take will affect our planets ecology profoundly. Here, I highlight the connection between urban form and ecosystem service generation and consumption. I also discuss how urban form controls energy use, and hence oil security and climate change. I argue that only by directly addressing the implications of urban growth as a research subject will ecologists meet their responsibility to provide a foundation for a sustainable biosphere, a mandate of the Ecological Society of America.

Forest edges and tree growth rates in the North Carolina piedmont

Forest fragmentation is a common process in forests worldwide, with implications for tree species composition and abundance. In particular, the effects of forest– non-forest edges on microclimate are often profound, usually resulting in increased light available to plants along the forest–non-forest edge. Using dendrochronological techniques, we assessed the effect of edges on the growth rates of four overstory species common in the North Carolina Piedmont: Acer rubrum, Liriodendron tulipifera, Liquidambar styraciflua, and Pinus taeda. Transects from the edge into the forest interior were established on 62 edges of varying aspect and ages in the Duke Forest (Durham, North Carolina, USA). Within a transect, all stems >10 cm in diameter were cored, and their spatial positions relative to the edge were recorded. Along each transect, a set of environmental and edaphic variables was measured including soil texture, soil concentrations of plant nutrients, and percentage of canopy closure. All transects were geo...

Spatial pattern of Quercus regeneration limitation and Acer rubrum invasion in a Piedmont forest

Abstract Across eastern North America, there is a temporal trend from open Quercus forests to closed forests with increased Acer rubrum in the understory. We used a series of Ripleys K(d) analyses to examine changes in the spatial pattern of Quercus and Acer rubrum stems greater than 2.5 cm DBH over 45 yr in a 2-ha mapped stand. Specifically, we asked whether changes over time were consistent with the hypothesis that Quercus is being competitively replaced by Acer rubrum. Both Acer rubrum and Quercus stems are spatially clumped, but have become less clumped over time. Stem mortality from Hurricane Fran (1996) was more clumped in all strata of the forest, at all spatial scales, than expected if damage had occurred to stems at random. Acer rubrum ingrowth occurred more often near established trees (all species) in the midstory, whereas Quercus ingrowth occurred less often near established trees in the midstory. The specific hypothesis that stems of Acer rubrum in the midstory of the forest are associated with a lack of Quercus regeneration was strongly supported. This effect occurred at all spatial scales tested, including scales larger than that at which direct competition for light can occur. Edaphic gradients in the plot are correlated with many of the observed trends at large spatial scales, and our results suggest that the presence of such gradients can generate complex spatial patterns over time. Nomenclature: Kartesz & Meacham (1999). Abbreviations: DBH = Diameter at breast height; CSR = Complete spatial randomness.

Global Urban Growth and the Geography of Water Availability, Quality, and Delivery

Globally, urban growth will add 1.5 billion people to cities by 2030, making the difficult task of urban water provisions even more challenging. In this article, we develop a conceptual framework of urban water provision as composed of three axes: water availability, water quality, and water delivery. For each axis, we calculate quantitative proxy measures for all cities with more than 50,000 residents, and then briefly discuss the strategies cities are using in response if they are deficient on one of the axes. We show that 523 million people are in cities where water availability may be an issue, 890 million people are in cities where water quality may be an issue, and 1.3 billion people are in cities where water delivery may be an issue. Tapping into groundwater is a widespread response, regardless of the management challenge, with many cities unsustainably using this resource. The strategies used by cities deficient on the water delivery axis are different than for cities deficient on the water quantity or water quality axis, as lack of financial resources pushes cities toward a different and potentially less effective set of strategies.

Modeling landscape vegetation pattern in response to historic land-use: a hypothesis-driven approach for the North Carolina Piedmont, USA

Current methods of vegetation analysis often assume species response to environmental gradients is homogeneously monotonic and unimodal. Such an approach can lead to unsatisfactory results, particularly when vegetation pattern is governed by compensatory relationships that yield similar outcomes for various environmental settings. In this paper we investigate the advantages of using classification tree models (CART) to test specific hypotheses of environmental variables effecting dominant vegetation pattern in the Piedmont. This method is free of distributional assumptions and is useful for data structures that contain non-linear relationships and higher-order interactions. We also compare the predictive accuracy of CART models with a parametric generalized linear model (GLM) to determine the relative strength of each predictive approach. For each method, hardwood and pine vegetation is modeled using explanatory topographic and edaphic variables selected based on historic reconstructions of patterns of land use. These include soil quality, potential soil moisture, topographic position, and slope angle. Predictive accuracy was assessed on independent validation data sets. The CART models produced the more accurate predictions, while also emphasizing alternative environmental settings for each vegetation type. For example, relic hardwood stands were found on steep slopes, highly plastic soils, or hydric bottomlands – alternatives not well captured by the homogeneous GLM. Our results illustrate the potential utility of this flexible modeling approach in capturing the heterogeneous patterns typical of many ecological datasets.

Estimating the Effect of Protected Lands on the Development and Conservation of Their Surroundings

The fate of private lands is widely seen as key to the fate of biodiversity in much of the world. Organizations that work to protect biodiversity on private lands often hope that conservation actions on one piece of land will leverage the actions of surrounding landowners. Few researchers have, however, examined whether protected lands do in fact encourage land conservation nearby or how protected lands affect development in the surrounding landscape. Using spatiotemporal data sets on land cover and land protection for three sites (western North Carolina, central Massachusetts, and central Arizona), we examined whether the existence of a protected area correlates with an increased rate of nearby land conservation or a decreased rate of nearby land development. At all sites, newly protected conservation areas tended to cluster close to preexisting protected areas. This may imply that the geography of contemporary conservation actions is influenced by past decisions on land protection, often made for reasons far removed from concerns about biodiversity. On the other hand, we found no evidence that proximity to protected areas correlates with a reduced rate of nearby land development. Indeed, on two of our three sites the development rate was significantly greater in regions with more protected land. This suggests that each conservation action should be justified and valued largely for what is protected on the targeted land, without much hope of broader conservation leverage effects.

Open Space Loss and Land Inequality in United States' Cities, 1990–2000

Urban growth reduces open space in and around cities, impacting biodiversity and ecosystem services. Using land-cover and population data, we examined land consumption and open space loss between 1990 and 2000 for all 274 metropolitan areas in the contiguous United States. Nationally, 1.4 million ha of open space was lost, and the amount lost in a given city was correlated with population growth (r(272) = 0.85, P<0.001). In 2000, cities varied in per capita land consumption by an order of magnitude, from 459 m2/person in New York to 5393 m2/person in Grand Forks, ND. The per capita land consumption (m2/person) of most cities decreased on average over the decade from 1,564 to 1,454 m 2/person, but there was substantial regional variation and some cities even increased. Cities with greater conservation funding or more reform-minded zoning tended to decrease in per capita land consumption more than other cities. The majority of developed area in cities is in low-density neighborhoods housing a small proportion of urban residents, with Gini coefficients that quantify this developed land inequality averaging 0.63. Our results suggest conservation funding and reform-minded zoning decrease per capita open space loss.