Robert J. Glynn

Rosuvastatin to Prevent Vascular Events in Men and Women with Elevated C-Reactive Protein

BACKGROUND Increased levels of the inflammatory biomarker high-sensitivity C-reactive protein predict cardiovascular events. Since statins lower levels of high-sensitivity C-reactive protein as well as cholesterol, we hypothesized that people with elevated high-sensitivity C-reactive protein levels but without hyperlipidemia might benefit from statin treatment. METHODS We randomly assigned 17,802 apparently healthy men and women with low-density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol levels of less than 130 mg per deciliter (3.4 mmol per liter) and high-sensitivity C-reactive protein levels of 2.0 mg per liter or higher to rosuvastatin, 20 mg daily, or placebo and followed them for the occurrence of the combined primary end point of myocardial infarction, stroke, arterial revascularization, hospitalization for unstable angina, or death from cardiovascular causes. RESULTS The trial was stopped after a median follow-up of 1.9 years (maximum, 5.0). Rosuvastatin reduced LDL cholesterol levels by 50% and high-sensitivity C-reactive protein levels by 37%. The rates of the primary end point were 0.77 and 1.36 per 100 person-years of follow-up in the rosuvastatin and placebo groups, respectively (hazard ratio for rosuvastatin, 0.56; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.46 to 0.69; P<0.00001), with corresponding rates of 0.17 and 0.37 for myocardial infarction (hazard ratio, 0.46; 95% CI, 0.30 to 0.70; P=0.0002), 0.18 and 0.34 for stroke (hazard ratio, 0.52; 95% CI, 0.34 to 0.79; P=0.002), 0.41 and 0.77 for revascularization or unstable angina (hazard ratio, 0.53; 95% CI, 0.40 to 0.70; P<0.00001), 0.45 and 0.85 for the combined end point of myocardial infarction, stroke, or death from cardiovascular causes (hazard ratio, 0.53; 95% CI, 0.40 to 0.69; P<0.00001), and 1.00 and 1.25 for death from any cause (hazard ratio, 0.80; 95% CI, 0.67 to 0.97; P=0.02). Consistent effects were observed in all subgroups evaluated. The rosuvastatin group did not have a significant increase in myopathy or cancer but did have a higher incidence of physician-reported diabetes. CONCLUSIONS In this trial of apparently healthy persons without hyperlipidemia but with elevated high-sensitivity C-reactive protein levels, rosuvastatin significantly reduced the incidence of major cardiovascular events. (ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT00239681.)

Reduction in C-reactive protein and LDL cholesterol and cardiovascular event rates after initiation of rosuvastatin: a prospective study of the JUPITER trial

BACKGROUND Statins lower high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hsCRP) and cholesterol concentrations, and hypothesis generating analyses suggest that clinical outcomes improve in patients given statins who achieve hsCRP concentrations less than 2 mg/L in addition to LDL cholesterol less than 1.8 mmol/L (<70 mg/dL). However, the benefit of lowering both LDL cholesterol and hsCRP after the start of statin therapy is controversial. We prospectively tested this hypothesis. METHODS In an analysis of 15 548 initially healthy men and women participating in the JUPITER trial (87% of full cohort), we prospectively assessed the effects of rosuvastatin 20 mg versus placebo on rates of non-fatal myocardial infarction, non-fatal stroke, admission for unstable angina, arterial revascularisation, or cardiovascular death (prespecified endpoints) during a maximum follow-up of 5 years (median 1.9 years), according to on-treatment concentrations of LDL cholesterol (>/=1.8 mmol/L or <1.8 mmol/L) and hsCRP (>/=2 mg/L or <2 mg/L). We included all events occurring after randomisation. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT00239681. FINDINGS Compared with placebo, participants allocated to rosuvastatin who achieved LDL cholesterol less than 1.8 mmol/L had a 55% reduction in vascular events (event rate 1.11 vs 0.51 per 100 person-years; hazard ratio [HR] 0.45, 95% CI 0.34-0.60, p<0.0001), and those achieving hsCRP less than 2 mg/L a 62% reduction (event rate 0.42 per 100 person-years; HR 0.38, 95% CI 0.26-0.56, p<0.0001). Although LDL cholesterol and hsCRP reductions were only weakly correlated in individual patients (r values <0.15), we recorded a 65% reduction in vascular events in participants allocated to rosuvastatin who achieved both LDL cholesterol less than 1.8 mmol/L and hsCRP less than 2 mg/L (event rate 0.38 per 100 person-years; adjusted HR 0.35, 95% CI 0.23-0.54), versus a 33% reduction in those who achieved one or neither target (event rate 0.74 per 100 person-years; HR 0.67, 95% CI 0.52-0.87) (p across treatment groups <0.0001). In participants who achieved LDL cholesterol less than 1.8 mmol/L and hsCRP less than 1 mg/L, we noted a 79% reduction (event rate 0.24 per 100 person-years; HR 0.21, 95% CI 0.09-0.52). Achieved hsCRP concentrations were predictive of event rates irrespective of the lipid endpoint used, including the apolipoprotein B to apolipoprotein AI ratio. INTERPRETATION For people choosing to start pharmacological prophylaxis, reduction in both LDL cholesterol and hsCRP are indicators of successful treatment with rosuvastatin.

Antiinflammatory Therapy with Canakinumab for Atherosclerotic Disease

BACKGROUND Experimental and clinical data suggest that reducing inflammation without affecting lipid levels may reduce the risk of cardiovascular disease. Yet, the inflammatory hypothesis of atherothrombosis has remained unproved. METHODS We conducted a randomized, double‐blind trial of canakinumab, a therapeutic monoclonal antibody targeting interleukin‐1β, involving 10,061 patients with previous myocardial infarction and a high‐sensitivity C‐reactive protein level of 2 mg or more per liter. The trial compared three doses of canakinumab (50 mg, 150 mg, and 300 mg, administered subcutaneously every 3 months) with placebo. The primary efficacy end point was nonfatal myocardial infarction, nonfatal stroke, or cardiovascular death. RESULTS At 48 months, the median reduction from baseline in the high‐sensitivity C‐reactive protein level was 26 percentage points greater in the group that received the 50‐mg dose of canakinumab, 37 percentage points greater in the 150‐mg group, and 41 percentage points greater in the 300‐mg group than in the placebo group. Canakinumab did not reduce lipid levels from baseline. At a median follow‐up of 3.7 years, the incidence rate for the primary end point was 4.50 events per 100 person‐years in the placebo group, 4.11 events per 100 person‐years in the 50‐mg group, 3.86 events per 100 person‐years in the 150‐mg group, and 3.90 events per 100 person‐years in the 300‐mg group. The hazard ratios as compared with placebo were as follows: in the 50‐mg group, 0.93 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.80 to 1.07; P=0.30); in the 150‐mg group, 0.85 (95% CI, 0.74 to 0.98; P=0.021); and in the 300‐mg group, 0.86 (95% CI, 0.75 to 0.99; P=0.031). The 150‐mg dose, but not the other doses, met the prespecified multiplicity‐adjusted threshold for statistical significance for the primary end point and the secondary end point that additionally included hospitalization for unstable angina that led to urgent revascularization (hazard ratio vs. placebo, 0.83; 95% CI, 0.73 to 0.95; P=0.005). Canakinumab was associated with a higher incidence of fatal infection than was placebo. There was no significant difference in all‐cause mortality (hazard ratio for all canakinumab doses vs. placebo, 0.94; 95% CI, 0.83 to 1.06; P=0.31). CONCLUSIONS Antiinflammatory therapy targeting the interleukin‐1β innate immunity pathway with canakinumab at a dose of 150 mg every 3 months led to a significantly lower rate of recurrent cardiovascular events than placebo, independent of lipid‐level lowering. (Funded by Novartis; CANTOS ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT01327846.)

Use of Pharmacogenetic and Clinical Factors to Predict the Therapeutic Dose of Warfarin

Initiation of warfarin therapy using trial‐and‐error dosing is problematic. Our goal was to develop and validate a pharmacogenetic algorithm. In the derivation cohort of 1,015 participants, the independent predictors of therapeutic dose were: VKORC1 polymorphism −1639/3673 G>A (−28% per allele), body surface area (BSA) (+11% per 0.25 m2), CYP2C9*3 (−33% per allele), CYP2C9*2 (−19% per allele), age (−7% per decade), target international normalized ratio (INR) (+11% per 0.5 unit increase), amiodarone use (−22%), smoker status (+10%), race (−9%), and current thrombosis (+7%). This pharmacogenetic equation explained 53–54% of the variability in the warfarin dose in the derivation and validation (N= 292) cohorts. For comparison, a clinical equation explained only 17–22% of the dose variability (P < 0.001). In the validation cohort, we prospectively used the pharmacogenetic‐dosing algorithm in patients initiating warfarin therapy, two of whom had a major hemorrhage. To facilitate use of these pharmacogenetic and clinical algorithms, we developed a nonprofit website, http://www.WarfarinDosing.org.

Asymptomatic hyperuricemia. Risks and consequences in the normative aging study

To quantify the consequences of asymptomatic hyperuricemia, this study examined rates for a first episode of gouty arthritis based on 30,147 human-years of prospective observation. A cohort of 2,046 initially healthy men in the Normative Aging Study was followed for 14.9 years with serial examinations and measurement of urate levels. With prior serum urate levels of 9 mg/dl or more, the annual incidence rate of gouty arthritis was 4.9 percent, compared with 0.5 percent for urate levels of 7.0 to 8.9 mg/dl and 0.1 percent for urate levels below 7.0 mg/dl. With urate levels of 9 mg/dl or higher, cumulative incidence of gouty arthritis reached 22 percent after five years. Incidence rates were three times higher for hypertensive patients than for normotensive patients (p less than 0.01). The strongest predictors of gout in a proportional hazards model were age, body mass index, hypertension, and cholesterol level, and alcohol intake. When the serum urate level became a factor in the model, none of these variables retained independent predictive power. At the final examination, only 0.7 percent of participants had a serum creatinine level of 2.0 mg/dl or more, with no evidence of renal deterioration attributable to hyperuricemia. These data support conservative management of asymptomatic hyperuricemia.

High-dimensional propensity score adjustment in studies of treatment effects using health care claims data

Background: Adjusting for large numbers of covariates ascertained from patients’ health care claims data may improve control of confounding, as these variables may collectively be proxies for unobserved factors. Here, we develop and test an algorithm that empirically identifies candidate covariates, prioritizes covariates, and integrates them into a propensity-score-based confounder adjustment model. Methods: We developed a multistep algorithm to implement high-dimensional proxy adjustment in claims data. Steps include (1) identifying data dimensions, eg, diagnoses, procedures, and medications; (2) empirically identifying candidate covariates; (3) assessing recurrence of codes; (4) prioritizing covariates; (5) selecting covariates for adjustment; (6) estimating the exposure propensity score; and (7) estimating an outcome model. This algorithm was tested in Medicare claims data, including a study on the effect of Cox-2 inhibitors on reduced gastric toxicity compared with nonselective nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs). Results: In a population of 49,653 new users of Cox-2 inhibitors or nonselective NSAIDs, a crude relative risk (RR) for upper GI toxicity (RR = 1.09 [95% confidence interval = 0.91–1.30]) was initially observed. Adjusting for 15 predefined covariates resulted in a possible gastroprotective effect (0.94 [0.78–1.12]). A gastroprotective effect became stronger when adjusting for an additional 500 algorithm-derived covariates (0.88 [0.73–1.06]). Results of a study on the effect of statin on reduced mortality were similar. Using the algorithm adjustment confirmed a null finding between influenza vaccination and hip fracture (1.02 [0.85–1.21]). Conclusions: In typical pharmacoepidemiologic studies, the proposed high-dimensional propensity score resulted in improved effect estimates compared with adjustment limited to predefined covariates, when benchmarked against results expected from randomized trials.

Relationship Between Selective Cyclooxygenase-2 Inhibitors and Acute Myocardial Infarction in Older Adults

Background—Although cyclooxygenase-2 inhibitors (coxibs) were developed to cause less gastrointestinal hemorrhage than nonselective nonsteroidal antiinflammatory drugs (NSAIDs), there has been concern about their cardiovascular safety. We studied the relative risk of acute myocardial infarction (AMI) among users of celecoxib, rofecoxib, and NSAIDs in Medicare beneficiaries with a comprehensive drug benefit. Methods and Results—We conducted a matched case-control study of 54 475 patients 65 years of age or older who received their medications through 2 state-sponsored pharmaceutical benefits programs in the United States. All healthcare use encounters were examined to identify hospitalizations for AMI. Each of the 10 895 cases of AMI was matched to 4 controls on the basis of age, gender, and the month of index date. We constructed matched logistic regression models including indicators for patient demographics, healthcare use, medication use, and cardiovascular risk factors to assess the relative risk of AMI in patients who used rofecoxib compared with persons taking no NSAID, taking celecoxib, or taking NSAIDs. Current use of rofecoxib was associated with an elevated relative risk of AMI compared with celecoxib (odds ratio [OR], 1.24; 95% CI, 1.05 to 1.46; P = 0.011) and with no NSAID (OR, 1.14; 95% CI, 1.00 to 1.31; P = 0.054). The adjusted relative risk of AMI was also elevated in dose-specific comparisons: rofecoxib ≤25 mg versus celecoxib ≤200 mg (OR, 1.21; 95% CI, 1.01 to 1.44; P = 0.036) and rofecoxib >25 mg versus celecoxib >200 mg (OR, 1.70; 95% CI, 1.07 to 2.71; P = 0.026). The adjusted relative risks of AMI associated with rofecoxib use of 1 to 30 days (OR, 1.40; 95% CI, 1.12 to 1.75; P = 0.005) and 31 to 90 days (OR, 1.38; 95% CI, 1.11 to 1.72; P = 0.003) were higher than >90 days (OR, 0.96; 95% CI, 0.72 to 1.25; P = 0.8) compared with celecoxib use of similar duration. Celecoxib was not associated with an increased relative risk of AMI in these comparisons. Conclusions—In this study, current rofecoxib use was associated with an elevated relative risk of AMI compared with celecoxib use and no NSAID use. Dosages of rofecoxib >25 mg were associated with a higher risk than dosages ≤25 mg. The risk was elevated in the first 90 days of use but not thereafter.

Cardiovascular benefits and diabetes risks of statin therapy in primary prevention: an analysis from the JUPITER trial

BACKGROUND In view of evidence that statin therapy increases risk of diabetes, the balance of benefit and risk of these drugs in primary prevention has become controversial. We undertook an analysis of participants from the JUPITER trial to address the balance of vascular benefits and diabetes hazard of statin use. METHODS In the randomised, double-blind JUPITER trial, 17,603 men and women without previous cardiovascular disease or diabetes were randomly assigned to rosuvastatin 20 mg or placebo and followed up for up to 5 years for the primary endpoint (myocardial infarction, stroke, admission to hospital for unstable angina, arterial revascularisation, or cardiovascular death) and the protocol-prespecified secondary endpoints of venous thromboembolism, all-cause mortality, and incident physician-reported diabetes. In this analysis, participants were stratified on the basis of having none or at least one of four major risk factors for developing diabetes: metabolic syndrome, impaired fasting glucose, body-mass index 30 kg/m(2) or higher, or glycated haemoglobin A(1c) greater than 6%. The trial is registered at ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT00239681. FINDINGS Trial participants with one or more major diabetes risk factor (n=11,508) were at higher risk of developing diabetes than were those without a major risk factor (n=6095). In individuals with one or more risk factors, statin allocation was associated with a 39% reduction in the primary endpoint (hazard ratio [HR] 0·61, 95% CI 0·47-0·79, p=0·0001), a 36% reduction in venous thromboembolism (0·64, 0·39-1·06, p=0·08), a 17% reduction in total mortality (0·83, 0·64-1·07, p=0·15), and a 28% increase in diabetes (1·28, 1·07-1·54, p=0·01). Thus, for those with diabetes risk factors, a total of 134 vascular events or deaths were avoided for every 54 new cases of diabetes diagnosed. For trial participants with no major diabetes risk factors, statin allocation was associated with a 52% reduction in the primary endpoint (HR 0·48, 95% CI 0·33-0·68, p=0·0001), a 53% reduction in venous thromboembolism (0·47, 0·21-1·03, p=0·05), a 22% reduction in total mortality (0·78, 0·59-1·03, p=0·08), and no increase in diabetes (0·99, 0·45-2·21, p=0·99). For such individuals, a total of 86 vascular events or deaths were avoided with no new cases of diabetes diagnosed. In analysis limited to the 486 participants who developed diabetes during follow-up (270 on rosuvastatin vs 216 on placebo; HR 1·25, 95% CI 1·05-1·49, p=0·01), the point estimate of cardiovascular risk reduction associated with statin therapy (HR 0·63, 95% CI 0·25-1·60) was consistent with that for the trial as a whole (0·56, 0·46-0·69). By comparison with placebo, statins accelerated the average time to diagnosis of diabetes by 5·4 weeks (84·3 [SD 47·8] weeks on rosuvastatin vs 89·7 [50·4] weeks on placebo). INTERPRETATION In the JUPITER primary prevention trial, the cardiovascular and mortality benefits of statin therapy exceed the diabetes hazard, including in participants at high risk of developing diabetes. FUNDING AstraZeneca.

Epidemiologic aspects of uveal melanoma

Although the underlying cause or causes of uveal melanoma have yet to be elucidated, important insights may be gained by examining the epidemiologic features of the disease. Uveal melanoma is an uncommon cancer with an incidence of only six cases per million population per year. It is most often diagnosed in the sixth decade and is somewhat more common in males. Apart from sporadic reports of family clusters, uveal melanoma is not considered an inherited disease. Whether some environmental exposure triggers the development of uveal melanoma remains an open question. Sunlight has been proposed as an environmental risk factor because sunlight is known to cause melanoma of the skin and both diseases are rare in nonwhite races. Unlike cutaneous melanoma, however, rates have not been increasing over time and do not vary by latitude. This paper evaluates the available evidence for sunlight and other potential risk factors for uveal melanoma, highlighting areas requiring further research.

The Incidence of Ulcerative Keratitis among Users of Daily-Wear and Extended-Wear Soft Contact Lenses

The wearing of contact lenses has increased dramatically in the past decade; over 4 million people in the United States now use extended-wear soft contact lenses, and 9 million use daily-wear soft contact lenses. Numerous reports have caused concern that the use of soft contact lenses, especially extended-wear lenses, may result in a substantial risk of ulcerative keratitis. To examine this issue, we conducted a prospective study in five New England states to estimate the incidence of ulcerative keratitis among those who use cosmetic extended-wear and daily-wear soft contact lenses. To obtain the numerator for each estimate of incidence, we surveyed all practicing ophthalmologists in the study area to identify all new cases diagnosed over a four-month period. To provide the denominator, we conducted a survey of 4178 households to estimate the number of persons who wore each type of soft contact lens. The annualized incidence of ulcerative keratitis was estimated to be 20.9 per 10,000 persons using extended-wear soft contact lenses for cosmetic purposes and 4.1 per 10,000 persons using daily-wear soft contact lenses for cosmetic purposes (P less than 0.00001).