Robert K. Mark

Real-Time Landslide Warning During Heavy Rainfall

A real-time system for issuing warnings of landslides during major storms is being developed for the San Francisco Bay region, California. The system is based on empirical and theoretical relations between rainfall and landslide initiation, geologic determination of areas susceptible to landslides, real-time monitoring of a regional network of telemetering rain gages, and National Weather Service precipitation forecasts. This system was used to issue warnings during the storms of 12 to 21 February 1986, which produced 800 millimeters of rainfall in the region. Although analysis after the storms suggests that modifications and additional development are needed, the system successfully predicted the times of major landslide events. It could be used as a prototype for systems in other landslide-prone regions.

Dynamics of soil carbon during deglaciation of the Laurentide ice sheet

Deglaciation of the Laurentide Ice Sheet in North America was accompanied by sequestration of organic carbon in newly exposed soils. The greatest rate of land exposure occurred around 12,000 to 8,000 years ago, and the greatest increase in the rate of carbon sequestration by soils occurred from 8,000 to 4,000 years ago. Sequestration of carbon in deglaciated peat lands continues today, and a steady state has not been reached. The natural rate of carbon sequestration in soils, however, is small relative to the rate of anthropogenic carbon dioxide production.

Rates of soil development from four soil chronosequences in the southern Great Basin

Abstract Four soil chronosequences in the southern Great Basin were examined in order to study and quantify soil development during the Quaternary. Soils of all four areas are developed in gravelly alluvial fans in semiarid climates with 8 to 40 cm mean annual precipitation. Lithologies of alluvium are granite-gneiss at Silver Lake, granite and basalt at Cima Volcanic Field, limestone at Kyle Canyon, and siliceous volcanic rocks at Fortymile Wash. Ages of the soils are approximated from several radiometric and experimental techniques, and rates are assessed using a conservative mathematical approach. Average rates for Holocene soils at Silver Lake are about 10 times higher than for Pleistocene soils at Kyle Canyon and Fortymile Wash, based on limited age control. Holocene soils in all four areas appear to develop at similar rates, and Pleistocene soils at Kyle Canyon and Fortymile Wash may differ by only a factor of 2 to 4. Over time spans of several millennia, a preferred model for the age curves is not linear but may be exponential or parabolic, in which rates decrease with increasing age. These preliminary results imply that the geographical variation in rates within the southern Great Basin-Mojave region may be much less significant than temporal variation in rates of soil development. The reasons for temporal variation in rates and processes of soil development are complexly linked to climatic change and related changes in water and dust, erosional history, and internally driven chemical and physical processes.

A fan dam for Tulare Lake, California, and implications for the Wisconsin glacial history of the Sierra Nevada

Historic fluctuations and late Quaternary deposits of Tulare Lake, in the southern San Joaquin Valley, indicate that maximum lake size has depended chiefly on the height of a frequently overtopped spillway. This dependence gives Tulare Lake a double record of paleoclimate. Climate in the Tulare Lake region has influenced the degree to which the lake fills its basin during dry seasons and dry years: during the past 100,000–130,000 yr, incidence of desiccation of Tulare Lake (inferred from stiffness, mud cracks, and other hand-specimen properties) has been broadly consistent with the lake9s salinity and depth (inferred from diatoms and ostracodes) and with regional vegetation (inferred from pollen). Climate, however, also appears to control basin capacity itself: Tulare Lake becomes large as a consequence of glacial-outwash aggradation of its alluvial-fan dam. Late Wisconsin enlargement of Tulare Lake probably resulted from the last major glaciation of the Sierra Nevada. The lake9s spillway coincides with the axis of the glacial-outwash fan of a major Sierra Nevada stream; moreover, sediment deposited in the transgressive lake resembles glacial rock flour from the Sierra Nevada. Differential tectonic subsidence and deposition by a Coast Range creek facilitated the building of Tulare Lake9s fan dam during the late Wisconsin but were less important than deposition of Sierra Nevada outwash. Four stratigraphically consistent 14 C dates on peat and wood give an age of 26,000 yr B.P. for the start of Tulare Lake9s late Wisconsin transgression. The last major Sierra Nevada glaciation (Tioga glaciation) thus may have begun about 26,000 yr B.P., provided that vigorous glacial-outwash deposition began early in the glaciation. Onset of the Tioga glaciation about 26,000 yr B.P. is consistent with new stratigraphic and radiocarbon data from the northeastern San Joaquin Valley. These data suggest that the principal episode of glacial-outwash deposition of Wisconsin age began in the San Joaquin Valley after 32,000 yr B.P., rather than at least 40,000 yr B.P., as previously believed. An earlier enlargement of Tulare Lake probably resulted from a fan dam produced by the penultimate major (Tahoe) glaciation of the Sierra Nevada. Average sedimentation rates inferred from depths to a 600,000-yr-old clay and from radiocarbon dates indicate that this earlier lake originated no later than 100,000 yr B.P. The Tahoe glaciation therefore is probably pre-Wisconsin.

Statistical and Simulation Models for Mapping Debris-Flow Hazard

We describe two different GIS-based approaches to the delineation of debris-flow hazard. The first is empirically based, and uses logistic regression to predict sites of rainfall-induced shallow landslides that initiate debris flows in San Mateo County, California. The second is both empirically and process based, and uses multiple physically-based simulations of debris flows to evaluate hazard downslope from initiation sites in Honolulu, Hawaii. The two approaches use fundamentally different data to delineate hazard in fundamentally different ways, and are described here as contrasting examples of approaches to hazard delineation.

Application of linear statistical models of earthquake magnitude versus fault length in estimating maximum expectable earthquakes

Correlation or linear regression estimates of earthquake magnitude from data on historical magnitude and length of surface rupture should be based upon the correct regression. For example, the regression of magnitude on the logarithm of the length of surface rupture L can be used to estimate magnitude, but the regression of log L on magnitude cannot. Regression estimates are most probable values, and estimates of maximum values require consideration of one-sided confidence limits.

Mediterranean seabed in digital shaded relief

Relief-shaded images made from a large digital depth model (DDM) provide a fresh view of regional tectonism and submarine geomorphology in the central Mediterranean. The 1-km spatial resolution is better than that afforded by the 5-arc-minute worldwide digital bathymetry (DBDB5). These computer pictures enable information on seafloor morphology to be visualized and communicated in much the same way that relief maps made from digital elevation models are used to interpret subaerial topography. The images shown here (partially joined along 19°E) were taken from a new shaded-relief map of the entire Mediterranean seafloor and parts of the Bay of Biscay and Black Sea between latitude 307deg;–46°N and longitude 6°W–37°E [Mark et al., 1990].