Robert Lowe

Health and climate change: policy responses to protect public health

The 2015 Lancet Commission on Health and Climate Change has been formed to map out the impacts of climate change, and the necessary policy responses, in order to ensure the highest attainable stand ...

The Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: from 25 years of inaction to a global transformation for public health

The Lancet Countdown tracks progress on health and climate change and provides an independent assessment of the health effects of climate change, the implementation of the Paris Agreement, 1 and th ...

Solid-wall U-values: heat flux measurements compared with standard assumptions

The assumed U-values of solid walls represent a significant source of uncertainty when estimating the energy performance of dwellings. The typical U-value for UK solid walls used for stock-level energy demand estimates and energy certification is 2.1 Wm−2 K−1. A re-analysis (based on 40 brick solid walls and 18 stone walls) using a lumped thermal mass and inverse parameter estimation technique gives a mean value of 1.3 ± 0.4 Wm−2 K−1 for both solid wall types. Among the many implications for policy, this suggests that standard UK solid-wall U-values may be inappropriate for energy certification or for evaluating the investment economics of solid-wall insulation. For stock-level energy modelling, changing the assumed U-value for solid walls reduces the estimated mean annual space heating demand by 16%, and causes a proportion of the stock to change Energy Performance Certification (EPC) band. The analysis shows that the diversity of energy use in domestic buildings may be as much influenced by heterogeneity in the physical characteristics of individual building components as it is by variation in occupant behaviour. Policy assessment and guidance material needs to acknowledge and account for this variation in physical building characteristics through regular grounding in empirical field data.

Evidence for heat losses via party wall cavities in masonry construction

This paper presents empirical evidence and analysis that supports the existence of a significant heat loss mechanism resulting from air movement through cavities in party walls in masonry construction. A range of heat loss experiments were undertaken as part of the Stamford Brook housing field trial in Altrincham in the United Kingdom. Co-heating tests showed a large discrepancy between the predicted and measured whole house heat loss coefficients. Analysis of the co-heating results, along with internal temperature data, thermal imaging and a theoretical analysis indicated that the most likely explanation for the discrepancy was bypassing of the thermal insulation via the uninsulated party wall cavities. The data show that such a bypass mechanism is potentially the largest single contributor to heat loss in terraced dwellings built to the 2006 revision of the Building Regulations. A comparable convective heat bypass associated with masonry party walls was identified in the late 1970s during the course of the Twin Rivers Project in the United States, albeit in a somewhat different construction from that used at Stamford Brook. A similar effect was also reported in the United Kingdom in the mid 1990s. However, it appears that no action was taken at that time either to confirm the results, to develop any technical solutions, or to amend standards for calculating heat losses from buildings. Current conventions for heat loss calculations in the United Kingdom do not take account of heat losses associated with party walls and it is suggested by the authors that such conventions may need to be updated to take account of the effect described in this paper. In the final part of the paper, the authors propose straightforward solutions to prevent bypassing of roof insulation via party walls by for example filling the cavity of the party wall with mineral fibre insulation, or by inserting a cavity closer across the cavity in the plane of the roof insulation. Practical application: The heat bypass mechanism described in this paper is believed by the authors to contribute to a significant proportion of heat loss from buildings in the UK constructed with clear cavities such as those found in separating walls between cavity masonry dwellings. It is proposed that relatively simple design changes could be undertaken to eliminate such heat loss pathways from new buildings. In addition, simple and cost effective measures are envisaged that could be used to minimise or eliminate the bypass from existing buildings. Such an approach could give rise to a significant reduction in carbon emissions from UK housing. a The Department for Communities and Local Government, previously the Office of the Deputy Prime Minister, ODPM. References produced before the change of name are listed under ODPM. b Difficulties in the recruitment of households have delayed the long term monitoring programme to 2007 but, fortuitously, this has provided the capacity for a more detailed investigation of the party wall heat loss issues discussed in this paper with further co-heating tests (incorporating a more detailed measurements) planned for the winter of 2006/07. c A co-heating test involves electrically heating the inside of a house to a constant temperature over a period of several weeks. Correlation of the measured electrical heat input with external temperature and solar insolation then allows an estimation of the total dwelling heat loss coefficient. d House A is an end-of-terrace house with one adjacent house. House E is a mid-terrace house with two adjacent houses, D and F. e In the UK, the regulations consist of a broadly framed, performance based, legal requirement supported by detailed technical guidance on compliance. Such guidance is provided by a system of approved documents issued by the Secretary of State. The current methodology for dwelling heat loss calculations is contained in the Standard Assessment Procedure 200512 which is invoked by regulation 17A and Approved Document L1A.2 f The Building Regulations do limit the leakage of air from within each dwelling into the cavity through an overall limit on dwelling permeability. g The higher-than-normal inside-outside temperature difference during the co-heating tests implies that background ventilation rates and ventilation heat loss coefficients during these tests are likely to have exceeded those in the table. Calculations based on a semi-analytical model of air flow14 suggest that the increase is of the order of 3 WK—1 (10%) for the two-storey house A and 15 WK—1 (27%) for the three-storey house E. h Note that the correction is only used to improve the graphical presentation of the data. The heat loss coefficient is calculated directly from multiple regression of heating power against ΔT and S.

A socio-technical approach to post-occupancy evaluation: interactive adaptability in domestic retrofit

Understanding the process of domestic retrofit is important for learning and innovation. This is particularly the case for low carbon retrofits such as those undertaken under the UKs Retrofit for the Future (RftF) programme, with its aim to achieve an overall 80% carbon reduction by 2050. Current post-occupancy evaluation (POE) research has both theoretical and methodological limitations with implications for technical and behavioural research in the built environment. Drawing on relevant ideas and concepts from social practice theory and science and technology studies, principally prefiguration (constraints/enablement), black-boxing, heating and cooling practices, this paper demonstrates how the relationship between buildings and people could be reconceptualized as mutually constitutive and co-evolving through a process of ‘interactive adaptation’. The concept of ‘interactive adaptation’ is explored through a novel approach to integrating physical and social data collected from a sample of dwellings selected from the RftF programme. Analysis yields insights into the influences and pathways of interactive adaptation resulting from retrofit technology and practices. The implications of these insights for policy-makers, the research community and practitioners are discussed: end-use energy demand policy needs to be informed by a socio-technical approach.

Challenges and future directions for energy and buildings research

Introduction In 2007 Building Research & Information published a special issue on the challenges posed by climate change for the building stock. Its focus was well-timed in addressing technical strategies and government policy options for reducing carbon emissions. In the wake of the Stern Review (Stern, 2007) and then again with the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (Metz et al., 2007), considerable international impetus existed for governments to move from broad carbon reduction targets to specific sectoral contributions to reduce energy demand, for instance by increasing the performance of new and refurbished construction via building regulations. Lowe’s (2007a) editorial in that special issue highlighted the need to consider energy supply and demand for the building stock as a system, and specifically the implications of decarbonizing the electricity supply in step with addressing energy demand in terms of the interactions influencing the choice and staging of options available to policy-makers.

Addressing the challenges of climate change for the built environment

At a strategic level, the last twelve months have seen the publication of the EU Action Plan for Energy Efficiency (Commission of the European communities (CEC), 2006), The Stern Review (Stern, 2006) and the IPCC’s Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC, 2007a). The Fourth Assessment Report confirms the urgency of the problem of climate change and leaves little room for doubt about the mechanisms and causes. The Stern Review rehearses the economic and political case for action – familiar arguments that will carry unusual weight for having been made by a senior economist at the behest of the British Treasury. The EU Action Plan for Energy Efficiency aims to achieve a 20% energy saving by 2020. The EU’s proposals for buildings are more ambitious, with planned savings of 28%. Priority Action 2 states:

Uptake of energy efficiency interventions in English dwellings

Little detailed evidence has previously been available regarding the uptake rate or prevalence of energy efficiency interventions among specific household groups. This study uses the Home Energy Efficiency Database (HEED) to investigate both the combination of measures that have been installed, and in which dwellings, according to key neighbourhood socio-demographic variables, including income and tenure. Analysis of 2000–07 data indicates that approximately 40% (9.3 million) dwellings in England had approximately 23.7 million efficiency measures installed, with an average of 2.5 measures per dwelling. Building fabric-related measures were the most frequent (e.g. cavity wall insulation, loft insulation and glazing) with an average of 2.1 million installed each year. Dwellings with the highest number of fabric interventions (the top 20%) were more likely to be found in areas with low income, with more owner-occupied dwellings, experiencing lower winter temperatures, having a lower proportion of flats, and having a slightly higher proportion of older adults and children. Energy efficiency installations have tended to occur among specific types of households or parts of the building stock. These findings have implications for the design of future government programmes for targeting energy efficiency measures to specific household groups or dwelling types.

The impact of housing energy efficiency improvements on reduced exposure to cold — the ‘temperature take back factor’:

Energy used in dwellings is an important target for actions aimed at averting climate change. It is increasingly recognised that these actions may also have near-term effects on health arising from changes to the indoor environment. As part of a major study of such health effects, we modelled hypothetical household energy interventions for the UK of the type and scale needed to meet near-term (nominally 2030) abatement targets. Here, we provide details of the elements of our model that address the relationships between the fabric and ventilation improvements and changes in indoor temperature during the heating season — the ‘temperature take back factor’. We demonstrate that the scale of these interventions is consistent with the emission reductions proposed by the UK Climate Change Committee, and estimate that, in the UK, the consequent reduction in exposure to indoor cold may result in around 4400 fewer disability-adjusted life-years each year. The inclusion of the temperature take back factor for the fabric and ventilation interventions reduces the relevant expected CO2 reductions by ~6%. Practical application: Improvements to the UK housing stock aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions will result in changes in internal temperatures. Such changes in temperature have implications for both public health and the prediction of emissions reductions. We present here an approach for quantifying the ‘temperature take back factor’, which is of relevance to environmental and energy modelling.

Lessons from climate change: a response to the commentaries

The potential importance both of climate change and of adaptation is underlined by the highly unusual weather experienced in many countries this summer. The number of heatrelated excess deaths in the UK and France alone now exceeds 10000 and it appears likely that many more will have died elsewhere. At the time of writing, there is also evidence of a widespread failure of harvests across Europe (Food and Agricultural Organization, 2003). The wheat harvest in parts of the Ukraine is down by 80%. In any earlier century, much of the population of Moldova would be facing the prospect of starvation. At the very least, there is a widespread public perception that climate change is becoming a reality and that it may have harmful as well as beneficial consequences.