Robert M. Hamm

Direct comparison of the efficacy of intuitive and analytical cognition in expert judgment

Direct comparisons were made of expert highway engineers use of analytical, quasirational, and intuitive cognition on three different tasks, each displayed in three different ways. Use of a systems approach made it possible to develop indices for measuring the location of each of the nine information display conditions on a continuum ranging from intuition-inducing to analysis-inducing and for measuring the location of each expert engineers cognition on a continuum ranging from intuition to analysis. Individual analyses of each experts performance over the nine conditions showed that the location of the task on the task index induced the experts cognition to be located at the corresponding region on the cognitive continuum index. Intuitive and quasirational cognition frequently outperformed analytical cognition in terms of the empirical accuracy of judgments. Judgmental accuracy was related to the degree of correspondence between the type of task and the type of cognitive activity on the cognitive continuum.

Selection of Verbal Probabilities: A Solution for Some Problems of Verbal Probability Expression

Abstract A method for verbal expression of degree of uncertainty is described. It requires the subject to select a phrase from a list that spans the full range of probabilities. In a second, optional, step, the subject indicates the numerical meaning of each phrase. The method avoids two problems of verbal probabilities—the indefinitely large lexicon and the individual differences in the interpretation of words. To test whether context and ordinal position might bias subjects selection or interpretation of the verbal expressions in the list, the list order was varied. When the verbal expressions were arranged in random order, ordinal position had a significant effect on the selection of expressions. However, these effects did not occur when the phrases were listed in ascending or descending order. Considerations of accuracy and interpersonal agreement also support the use of ordered phrase lists.

Generalizing Over Conditions by Combining the Multitrait Multimethod Matrix and the Representative Design of Experiments

Abstract : Analytical methods should be substituted for the current largely intuitive methods for generalizing results over conditions. Toward that end we present a methodology that combines Campbell and Fiskes (1959) multitrait multimethod matrix and Brunswiks (1956) representative design of experiments. A description of a study of expert judgement and a critique of current practices illustrate the methodology. Keywords: Multitrait multimethod; Representative design; Expert judgement; Generalization; Methodology.

Moment-by-moment variation in experts' analytic and intuitive cognitive activity

Moment-by-moment variation in the use of intuitive and analytical cognition by experts engaged in a complex judgment task is analyzed. Six highway engineers were asked to think aloud while producing formulas that expressed their knowledge of how highway aesthetics, safety, and capacity are determined by sets of relevant factors. Each engineers statements were measured with multiple indices of the use of intuitive or analytical cognition, thus producing a moment-by-moment measure of the engineers cognitive activity. Measures reflecting the rate of alternation between intuition and analysis, as well as patterns of change over time, were derived from this. The subtask the engineer was engaged in at each moment was also measured. >

Psychiatrists' thorny judgments. Describing and improving decision making processes

The decision making method used by Climo [1] for difficult decisions in public psychiatric hospitals is criticized for oversimplifying the decision situation. Two methods for describing decision processes, naturalistic observation and judgment policy analysis, are introduced as a basis for selecting techniques for clarifying and improving decision making in situations in which a formal decision analysis is not feasible. (Med Decis Making 4:425-447, 1984)

Accuracy of alternative methods for describing experts’ knowledge of multiple influence domains

Accuracy of different methods for modeling experts’ knowledge of a domain with continuous additive relations among multiple variables was compared. Bootstrapped models of case judgments with premeasured cues were more accurate than models produced directly by the experts. Bootstrapped models of judgments were less accurate when experts perceived the cues than when the cues were measured for them, in two of three domains. A formal procedure for guiding the experts in producing the models did not improve accuracy, whereas correcting their slips did. More accurate use of a diagnostic (as opposed to predictive) cue-criterion relationship was observed when the experts judged cases perceptually than when they wrote abstract formulas.

The need to consider modes of cognition in designing systems that require distributed decision making

Distributed decision-making systems may have an impact on the functions necessary for successful group decision-making. In particular, the constraints on group interaction, communication, and individual environment that are imposed by a distributed decision-making system may affect individuals mode of cognition (analysis, intuition, pattern matching, or functional thinking). This in turn may affect decision quality. Methods for compensating for this effect are suggested.<<ETX>>

Preferences, beliefs, and values in negotiations concerning aid to Nicaragua

The paper argues that in the context of public choice for non-market goods, two assumptions of the simple model of the rational economic actor may not hold. The assumptions are that there is a direct connection between choice and outcome, and that preferences are not affected by the act of making a choice. Consequently, to understand peoples preferences for public goods, it is important to measure their beliefs and values separately rather than simply to observe their choice behavior or to ask them what they would be willing to pay for the public good. In an example study, peoples preferences for U.S. policies toward Nicaragua were measured and further analyzed into their beliefs about the effects of those policies on Nicaraguan outcomes, and their evaluations of the Nicaraguan outcomes. It was shown that the process of making a two-person choice changed the preferences, and that the separate measures or beliefs and values gave insight into the process of the change that would not have been available had only the preferences been measured. Implications for the contingent valuation method are explored and an alternative approach is proposed.