Robert Marquez

Information and Bank Credit Allocation

Private information obtained by lenders leads to borrower capture to the extent that such information cannot be communicated credibly to outsiders. We analyze how this capture affects the loan portfolio allocation of informed lenders. First, we show that banks charge higher interest rates and finance relatively less creditworthy borrowers in market segments with greater information asymmetries. Second, when faced with greater competition from outside lenders, banks reallocate credit toward more captured borrowers (flight to captivity). Third, if borrower quality and captivity are sufficiently correlated, an increase in the competitiveness of uninformed lenders can worsen the informed lenders overall loan portfolio. The model explains observed consequences of financial liberalizations. liberalization

Adverse selection as a barrier to entry in the banking industry

Banks offering credit to borrowers are faced with uncertainty about their creditworthiness. If banks obtain information about borrowers after lending to them, they are able to reject riskier borrowers when refinancing. Potential entrant banks will face an adverse-selection problem stemming from their inability to distinguish new borrowers from old borrowers who have been rejected by their previous bank. We analyze the effects of asymmetric information on the market structure of the banking industry. We characterize the equilibrium under Bertrand competition with two banks, and show than an equilibrium where a third bank enters does not exist (blockaded entry).

Monetary Policy, Leverage, and Bank Risk-Taking

The recent global financial crisis has ignited a debate on whether easy monetary conditions can lead to greater bank risk-taking. We study this issue in a model of leveraged financial intermediaries that endogenously choose the riskiness of their portfolios. When banks can adjust their capital structures, monetary easing unequivocally leads to greater leverage and higher risk. However, if the capital structure is fixed, the effect depends on the degree of leverage: following a policy rate cut, well capitalized banks increase risk, while highly levered banks decrease it. Further, the capitalization cutoff depends on the degree of bank competition. It is therefore expected to vary across countries and over time.

Real interest rates, leverage, and bank risk-taking

Do low interest rate environments lead to greater bank risk-taking? We show that, when banks can adjust their capital structures, reductions in real interest rates lead to greater leverage and higher risk for any downward sloping loan demand function. However, if the capital structure is fixed, the effect depends on the degree of leverage: following a decrease in interest rates, well capitalized banks increase risk, while highly levered banks may decrease it if loan demand is linear or concave. Further, the capitalization cutoff depends on the degree of bank competition. This effect therefore should vary across countries and over time.

Competition Among Regulators

This paper shows that competition among regulators reduces regulatory standards relative to a centralized solution. It suggests that a central regulator is more likely to emerge for homogeneous and financially integrated countries. The paper proves these results in a model where regulators concerned with their banking system’s stability and efficiency and with their banks’ profitability set their regulatory policy non-cooperatively. Externalities in bank regulation make the independent solution collectively inefficient. These externalities and the benefits of centralized regulation increase with financial integration, while the costs associated with the loss of independence decrease with the homogeneity of the countries involved.

Flight to Quality or to Captivity: Information and Credit Allocation

Superior information exchanged over the course of lending relationships generates bank-client specificities to the extent that such information cannot be communicated credibly to outsiders. Consequently, banks obtain higher profits from more captured borrowers than from borrowers with financing alternatives. We refer to this as a flight to captivity effect. Negative shocks, associated with monetary contractions or foreign entry, cause a reallocation of bank credit away from more transparent borrowers and toward more opaque, more captured borrowers. The paper applies these ideas to the analysis of bank behavior in transition economies after financial liberalization and monetary policy contractions.

A note on Bertrand competition with asymmetric fixed costs

Abstract We consider a model of Bertrand competition with fixed costs of entry or production. We show that, contrary to most of the existing literature that focuses on symmetric firms and hence symmetric equilibria, if we allow these fixed costs to be different for each firm, competition may prevent higher cost firms from entering this market, even if the differences in cost are small. Specifically, all firms except for the two with the lowest fixed cost find entry blockaded, and the two firms with the lowest fixed costs compete ignoring the threat of potential entry.

Private Equity Fund Returns and Performance Persistence

Successful private equity managers have funds that are often oversubscribed and provide persistent abnormal returns. Why do not successful managers increase fund size or fees? We argue that managers want to attract high-quality entrepreneurs, while entrepreneurs want to match with high-ability managers. However, observing fund performance does not allow entrepreneurs to distinguish a manager’s ability from the quality of firms in the fund’s portfolio. As a consequence, a fund manager may devote unobserved effort to select firms, and keep fund size small to limit the cost of effort, hoping to manipulate entrepreneurs’ beliefs about his ability. JEL Classification: G24, G31

Supervisory Incentives in a Banking Union

We explore the behavior of supervisors when a centralized agency has full power over all decisions regarding banks, but relies on local supervisors to collect the information necessary to act. This institutional design entails a principal-agent problem between the central and local supervisors if their objective functions differ. Information collection may be inferior to that under fully independent local supervisors or under centralized information collection. And this may increase risk-taking by regulated banks. Yet, a “tougher” central supervisor may increase regulatory standards. Thus, the net effect of centralization on bank risk taking depends on the balance of these two effects.

Specialization, Productivity, and Financing Constraints

We analyze financial contracting when the specificity of investments is endogenous. Specialization decreases the liquidation value of assets, but it also improves a firms long term productivity. While the first effect is known to make financing more difficult, we show that the second effect can ease financing constraints by improving an entrepreneurs incentive to pay. An entrepreneurs inability to commit to a given level of specialization introduces inefficiencies and may result in over or under specialization depending on which of the above effects dominates. The tradeoff we identify persists across various forms of specialized investments and generates new predictions. For example, we show that investment in human capital introduces a strategic incentive to specialize since entrepreneurs benefit from their investments even under liquidation.