Robert Swart

An integrated model for the assessment of the greenhouse effect: The Dutch approach

This paper describes a simulation policy model of the combined greenhouse effects of trace gases. With this model, the Integrated Model for the Assessment of the Greenhouse Effect (IMAGE) scenarios for the future impact of the greenhouse effect can be made, based on different assumptions for technological and socio-economic developments. The contribution of each trace gas can be estimated separately.Basically the model, consisting of a number of coupled modules, gives policy makers a concise overview of the problem and enables them to evaluate the impact of different strategies. Because the model covers the complete cause-effect relationship it can be utilized to derive allowable emission rates for the different trace gases from set effect related targets. Regular demonstration sessions with the simulation model have proven the importance of such science based integrated models for policy development.Four different scenarios are worked out for the most important trace gases (CO2, CH4, N2O, CFC-11 and CFC-12). One of these scenarios can be regarded as a growth scenario unrestricted by environmental concerns. The others are based on different strategic policies. After the simulation of future trace gas concentrations global equilibrium temperature increases are computed. Finally the sea level rise, the most threatening effect of the greenhouse problem for the Netherlands, is estimated.Simulation results so far emphasize the importance of trace gases other than CO2. The Montreal Protocol on reduction of CFC is found to stabilize the relative contribution of these substances to the greenhouse effect.

Are Existing Global Scenarios Consistent with Ecological Feedbacks

Scenarios can help planners and decision makers to think through uncertainties about the future and make decisions that are robust to a variety of possible outcomes. To develop useful scenarios we need to understand the main processes of relevance to the system of interest. Ecological processes, and the feedbacks that they can create between human actions and human well-being, are thought to be important for human societies. Current uncertainties over the long-term resilience of ecosystems and the substitutability of ecosystem goods and services can be translated into three alternative realities: ecosystems may be relatively brittle, relatively resilient, or largely irrelevant. Although these extremes are only rough characterizations of reality, they help us to focus our thinking about the possible outcomes of interactions between humans and the rest of the biosphere. Existing global scenarios can be categorized into a small number of families based on shared themes and assumptions about the future. Considering the internal consistency of four of the main scenario families in relation to the three alternative ecological realities suggests that all existing scenarios make strong, implicit assumptions about the resilience of ecosystems. After a detailed discussion of individual examples, we present a synthesis of the incorporation of ecology in existing scenarios. All current scenarios are inconsistent with at least one possible property of ecosystems and their likely interaction with society. The interrelationships between ecological reality, human views of ecosystems, and social responses to actual and perceived ecological change are complex. For the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment and future scenario exercises, we recommend that essential ecological assumptions should be made explicit to ensure that the details of each scenario are consistent with both the perceived and the actual degree of resilience of ecosystems.

The ‘ultimate objective’ of the framework convention on climate change requires a new approach in climate change research

In the Framework Convention on Climate Change an ‘ultimate objective’ is formulated that calls for stabilization of the concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere at a level that would allow ecosystems to adapt naturally, safeguard food supply and enable sustainable development to proceed in a sustainable manner. This paper addresses the possible contribution of science to translate this rather vague and ambiguous objective into more practicable terms. We propose a regionalized, risk-based six-step approach that couples an analysis of ecosystem vulnerability to the results of simulations of climate change. An ‘ultimate objective’ level could be determined in terms of stabilized concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. The level and timing of this stabilization would be determined by a political appreciation of associated risks for managed and unmanaged ecosystems. These risks would be assessed by region in an internationally coordinated scientific effort, followed by a global synthesis.

Modelling tropical deforestation and its consequences for global climate.

Abstract Major land use changes can influence bio-geochemical cycles. Presently the conversion of tropical rainforests is considered to be the most important type of change in this respect. For use in connection with the carbon cycle module of RIVMs Integrated Model to Assess the Greenhouse Effect (IMAGE) a deforestation module has been developed. The purpose of this module is to relate deforestation rates to socioeconomic developments in order to develop long-term scenarios. Next to the major driving force: expansion of agricultural land, also expansion of pasture, commercial logging, fuelwood gathering, industrial and mining projects have been taken into account. Because of the close interrelation between growth of population and economies and the demand for agricultural products, energy and building materials, we find that the rapid destruction of the forests can only be halted by sharp increases in the productivity of agriculture and forestry. Plantation wood, as a substitute for fossil fuels, has to be used efficiently. Land expansion should take place according to land suitability for agricultural land, possibly even at the expense of pasture lands. Since data on deforestation and the underlying processes are very uncertain and at this stage in the model the tropical forests are aggregated into the three major regions the results can only be considered in a relative way. It is found that deforestation plays a significant role in the greenhouse effect, but much less than the combustion of fossil fuels.

Future Trends of Land-Use Emissions of Major Greenhouse Gases

Land-use emissions of greenhouse gases make up over one-third of current total anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases and about three-quarters of the total anthropogenic emissions of CH4 and N2O. Considering their contribution to global emissions, it is important to understand their future trends in order to anticipate and mitigate climate change. This paper reviews published scenarios of major categories of these emissions with the aim to provide background information for the development of new scenarios. These categories include CO2 from deforestation, CH4 from rice cultivation, CH4 from enteric fermentation of cattle, and N2O from fertilizer application. Base year estimates of all these categories varied greatly from reference to reference, and hence emissions of all scenarios were normalized relative to their 1990 value before being compared to one another. The range of published scenarios of CO2 emissions from deforestation is widest around the middle of the 21st century and then all scenarios converge to low values towards 2100. By contrast, the different scenarios of CH4 and N2O diverge with time, showing their widest range in 2100. Global emissions of CH4 from rice cultivation vary by a factor of three in 2100 and N2O from fertilized soils by a factor of 2.3. Emissions of CH4 from enteric fermentation of animals have the smallest range (factor of 2.0). The typical long-range trends of land-use emission scenarios vary greatly from region to region - they stabilize in industrialized regions after a few decades, but tend to stabilize later in developing regions or continue to grow throughout the 21st century. To improve the realism of the estimates of future trends of land-use emissions, it is especially important to improve the estimation of the future extent of agricultural land and the rate of deforestation, while taking into account significant driving forces such as the demand for agricultural commodities and crop yields.