Robert Vermeulen

The Dark Side of Global Integration: Increasing Tail Dependence

We measure stock market co-exeedances using the methodology of Cappiello, Gerard and Manganelli (2005, ECB Working Paper 501). This method is based on quantile regressions and enables us to measure comovement at each point of the return distribution. First, we construct an annual co-exeedance probability for the 5, 10, 25, 75, 90 and 95 percent return quantiles using daily data from 1974-2006. Next, we explain these probabilities in a panel gravity model framework. This analysis shows that macroeconomic events asymmetrically influence comovement of upper and lower tail returns. Financial liberalization has a positive impact on comovement across the return distribution, but its effect is strongest on the left tail quantiles. Trade competition weakly impact the 5%, 10% and 95% quantiles, but has a stronger influence on the other quantiles. Industrial dissimilarity has a strong effect on both tails, but not on the 25% and 75% quantiles. Exchange rate volatilities have a strong effect only on the 5% and 10% quantiles. However, the introduction of the euro has its most pronounced effect on upper quantile comovement.

Migrants' Choice of Remittance Channel: Do General Payment Habits Play a Role?

This paper investigates the determinants in migrants’ choice of payment channel when transferring money to relatives abroad. We analyze survey results on 501 migrants in the Netherlands, identifying five remittance channels: bank, money transfer operator, in-cash transfers via informal intermediaries, ATM withdrawals abroad, and carrying cash abroad. The results show that education, costs, access, and financial development in the recipient country are important determinants, while general cash preferences and internet banking usage play a limited role. Based on our findings, financial education, cost reduction, and increasing financial inclusion may serve a valuable role to increase the use of formal channels.

The 2007-2009 Financial Crisis: Changing Market Dynamics and the Impact of Credit Supply and Aggregate Demand Sensitivity

This paper highlights the impact of credit supply and aggregate demand sensitivity on 91 US industries’ stock performance during the 2007-2009 financial crisis. We account explicitly for changes in the market model and investigate, next to stock returns, the changes in systematic risk and idiosyncratic return induced by the financial crisis. The results show that leverage has a significantly positive effect on systematic risk changes during the financial crisis. After accounting for the change in systematic risk, the crisis induced idiosyncratic return is significantly related to industry leverage and the industry’s sensitivity to aggregate demand. A subsequent analysis shows that both leverage and demand sensitivity have economically large effects on industry performance during the crisis.

Heterogeneous effects of competitiveness shocks on macroeconomic performance across euro area countries

This paper considers how competitiveness impacts macroeconomic performance in 11 euro area countries. VAR models are estimated for the individual countries using quarterly data from 1995Q4 to 2013Q4. Besides unit labour costs as a competitiveness measure, the models include GDP, the current account balance and domestic credit. The empirical analyses show that changes in unit labour costs help explain GDP dynamics in the short and medium term in most countries, whereas they have little explanatory power for the current account balance or domestic credit for most countries. Overall, the effects of the unit labour costs vary substantially across the countries in the euro area. The heterogeneity suggests that policy measures aiming to improve economic growth, correct current account imbalances and ensure financial stability need to take country‐specific features into account.

International investment positions revisited: Investor heterogeneity and individual security characteristics

In this paper we show empirically how international investment positions are determined by investor heterogeneity and individual security characteristics. We do so by estimating a gravity model with newly available data that contains both domestic and international holdings of individual sectors from euro area countries in individual bonds and stocks. The five holding sectors (banks, insurers, pension funds, investment funds and households) all face barriers to international investments, but these differ both across sectors and between their bond and stock holdings. Furthermore, individual security characteristics affect portfolio choice across investors differently. For bonds we find that currency denomination, coupon type, maturity and eligibility as collateral for ECB transactions stand out. For equities we find that market values, currency denomination and dividend payments are important. Since holder sectors vary in size across countries we posit that cross-country differences in sectoral composition may lead to different transmission effects of financial shocks.

How competitiveness shocks affect macroeconomic performance across euro area countries

This paper considers the short-term effects of competitiveness shocks on macroeconomic performance in the euro area. Vector autoregressive models are estimated on quarterly data from 1995 to 2013 for individual countries and the whole euro area. The results show that competitiveness shocks help to explain subsequent GDP developments in most countries but have little explanatory power for the current account balance and domestic credit. These results apply for all of the competitiveness measures considered, but a non-traditional competitiveness measure accounting for quality differences fares better in some cases. The effects of the competitiveness measures vary substantially across the countries in the euro area, which likely reflects their different economic structures and institutions. This heterogeneity suggests that policy measures seeking to improve competitiveness may have very different effects on economic performance and financial stability in different countries.