Robert X. Black

Stratospheric Forcing of Surface Climate in the Arctic Oscillation

Abstract Diagnostic results are presented indicating that during the Arctic oscillation surface climate variations are directly forced by changes in the strength of the stratospheric polar vortex. To be specific, large-scale potential vorticity anomalies in the lower stratosphere induce zonally symmetric zonal wind perturbations extending downward to the earths surface. This represents a large-scale annular stirring of the troposphere from above. During discrete events, this influence is manifested as a downward transient pulse initially emanating from the midstratosphere and ultimately altering surface weather. It is suggested that this mechanism may help to explain several observed stratospheric influences upon surface climate, including the effects of volcanic eruptions, the solar cycle, ozone depletion, and greenhouse gases.

A new perspective on the dynamical link between the stratosphere and troposphere

Atmospheric processes of tropospheric origin can perturb the stratosphere, but direct feedback in the opposite direction is usually assumed to be negligible, despite the tropospheres sensitivity to changes in the release of wave activity into the stratosphere. Here, however, we present evidence that such a feedback exists and can be significant. We find that if the wintertime Arctic polar stratospheric vortex is distorted, either by waves propagating upward from the troposphere or by eastward-travelling stratospheric waves,, then there is a concomitant redistribution of stratospheric potential vorticity which induces perturbations in keymeteorological fields in the upper troposphere. The feedback is large despite the much greater mass of the troposphere: it can account for up to half of the geopotential height anomaly at thetropopause. Although the relative strength ofthefeedback is partly due to a cancellation between contributions to these anomalies from lower altitudes, our results imply that stratospheric dynamics and its feedback on the troposphere are more significant for climate modelling and data assimilation than was previously assumed.

North American extreme temperature events and related large scale meteorological patterns: A review of statistical methods, dynamics, modeling, and trends

Abstract The objective of this paper is to review statistical methods, dynamics, modeling efforts, and trends related to temperature extremes, with a focus upon extreme events of short duration that affect parts of North America. These events are associated with large scale meteorological patterns (LSMPs). The statistics, dynamics, and modeling sections of this paper are written to be autonomous and so can be read separately. Methods to define extreme events statistics and to identify and connect LSMPs to extreme temperature events are presented. Recent advances in statistical techniques connect LSMPs to extreme temperatures through appropriately defined covariates that supplement more straightforward analyses. Various LSMPs, ranging from synoptic to planetary scale structures, are associated with extreme temperature events. Current knowledge about the synoptics and the dynamical mechanisms leading to the associated LSMPs is incomplete. Systematic studies of: the physics of LSMP life cycles, comprehensive model assessment of LSMP-extreme temperature event linkages, and LSMP properties are needed. Generally, climate models capture observed properties of heat waves and cold air outbreaks with some fidelity. However they overestimate warm wave frequency and underestimate cold air outbreak frequency, and underestimate the collective influence of low-frequency modes on temperature extremes. Modeling studies have identified the impact of large-scale circulation anomalies and land–atmosphere interactions on changes in extreme temperatures. However, few studies have examined changes in LSMPs to more specifically understand the role of LSMPs on past and future extreme temperature changes. Even though LSMPs are resolvable by global and regional climate models, they are not necessarily well simulated. The paper concludes with unresolved issues and research questions.

Northern Winter Climate Change: Assessment of Uncertainty in CMIP5 Projections Related to Stratosphere-Troposphere Coupling

Future changes in the stratospheric circulation could have an important impact on northern winter tropospheric climate change, given that sea level pressure (SLP) responds not only to tropospheric circulation variations but also to vertically coherent variations in troposphere-stratosphere circulation. Here we assess northern winter stratospheric change and its potential to influence surface climate change in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project-Phase 5 (CMIP5) multimodel ensemble. In the stratosphere at high latitudes, an easterly change in zonally averaged zonal wind is found for the majority of the CMIP5 models, under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 scenario. Comparable results are also found in the 1% CO2 increase per year projections, indicating that the stratospheric easterly change is common feature in future climate projections. This stratospheric wind change, however, shows a significant spread among the models. By using linear regression, we quantify the impact of tropical upper troposphere warming, polar amplification, and the stratospheric wind change on SLP. We find that the intermodel spread in stratospheric wind change contributes substantially to the intermodel spread in Arctic SLP change. The role of the stratosphere in determining part of the spread in SLP change is supported by the fact that the SLP change lags the stratospheric zonally averaged wind change. Taken together, these findings provide further support for the importance of simulating the coupling between the stratosphere and the troposphere, to narrow the uncertainty in the future projection of tropospheric circulation changes.

Stratosphere–Troposphere Coupling during Spring Onset

Abstract The authors perform an observational study of the relation between stratospheric final warmings (SFWs) and the boreal extratropical circulation. SFW events are found to provide a strong organizing influence upon the large-scale circulation of the stratosphere and troposphere during the period of spring onset. In contrast to the climatological seasonal cycle, SFW events noticeably sharpen the annual weakening of high-latitude circumpolar westerlies in both the stratosphere and troposphere. A coherent pattern of significant westerly (easterly) zonal wind anomalies is observed to extend from the stratosphere to the earth’s surface at high latitudes prior to (after) SFW events, coinciding with the polar vortex breakdown. This evolution is associated with a bidirectional dynamical coupling of the stratosphere–troposphere system in which tropospheric low-frequency waves induce annular stratospheric circulation anomalies, which in turn, are followed by annular tropospheric circulation anomalies. The reg...

Probing Hurricanes with Stable Isotopes of Rain and Water Vapor

Abstract Rain and water vapor were collected during flights in Hurricanes Olivia (1994), Opal (1995), Marilyn (1995), and Hortense (1995) and analyzed for their stable isotopic concentrations, or ratios, H218O:H2O and HDO:H2O. The spatial patterns and temporal changes of isotope ratios reflect details of a hurricanes structure, evolution, microphysics, and water budget. At all flight levels over the sea (850–475 hPa) the lowest isotope ratios occur in or near regions of stratiform rains between about 50 and 250 km from the eye. Isotope ratios are higher in the eyewall and were particularly high in the crescent-shaped eyewall of Hurricane Opal at a time when no rain was falling over a large area near the storm center. In Hurricane Olivia, isotope ratios decreased from 24 to 25 September after vertical and radial circulation weakened. A two-layer isotope model of a radially symmetric hurricane simulates these features. The low isotope ratios are caused by fractionation in extensive, thick, precipitating cl...

Life cycles of persistent anomalies. II : The development of persistent negative height anomalies over the North Pacific Ocean

Abstract The present study extends our previous work on the life cycles of persistent anomalies by providing more comprehensive analyses of the synoptic and dynamical characteristics associated with the developments of the anomalies. We focus here on the developments of major cases of persistent negative height anomalies over the extratropical central North Pacific (PAC) region during wintertime. These ewes are generally manifested at the surface by an anomalously intense and eastward-displaced Aleutian low and, at upper levels, by an abnormally strong zonal jet that extends across most of the western and central Pacific at midlatitudes. The associated flow anomalies usually resemble particularly strong realizations of the Pacific-North American (PNA) teleconnection pattern. The large-scale flow anomalies are typically preceded by a buildup of anomalously cold air over Asia and an intensification of the upper-level jet over southeastern Asia and the fox western Pacific. A few days prior to the larger-scal...

Interannual Variability in the Southern Hemisphere Circulation Organized by Stratospheric Final Warming Events

Abstract A composite observational analysis is presented demonstrating that austral stratospheric final warming (SFW) events provide a substantial organizing influence upon the large-scale atmospheric circulation in the Southern Hemisphere. In particular, the annual weakening of high-latitude westerlies in the upper troposphere and stratosphere is accelerated during SFW onset. This behavior is associated with a coherent annular circulation change with zonal wind decelerations (accelerations) at high (low) latitudes. The high-latitude stratospheric decelerations are induced by the anomalous wave driving of upward-propagating tropospheric waves. Longitudinally asymmetric circulation changes occur in the lower troposphere during SFW onset with regionally localized height increases (decreases) at subpolar (middle) latitudes. Importantly, the tropospheric and stratospheric circulation change patterns identified here are structurally distinct from the Southern Annular Mode. It is concluded that SFW events are l...

The Dynamics of Northern Hemisphere Stratospheric Final Warming Events

Abstract A lag composite analysis is performed of the zonal-mean structure and dynamics of Northern Hemisphere stratospheric final warming (SFW) events. SFW events are linked to distinct zonal wind deceleration signatures in the stratosphere and troposphere. The period of strongest stratospheric decelerations (SD) is marked by a concomitant reduction in the high-latitude tropospheric westerlies. However, a subsequent period of tropospheric decelerations (TD) occurs while the stratospheric circulation relaxes toward climatological conditions. During SFW onset, a wavenumber-1 disturbance at stratospheric altitudes evolves into a circumpolar anticyclonic circulation anomaly. Transformed Eulerian-mean dynamical diagnoses reveal that the SD period is characterized by an anomalous upward Eliassen–Palm (EP) signature at high latitudes extending from the surface to the middle stratosphere. The associated wave-driving pattern consists of zonal decelerations extending from the upper troposphere to the midstratosphe...

The Dynamics of Large-Scale Cyclogenesis over the North Pacific Ocean

Abstract Earlier studies of persistent large-scale flow anomalies have been extended, with the aim of identifying the primary mechanisms for persistent anomaly development. In this study the focus is on wintertime cases of persistent cyclonic flow anomalies over the North Pacific. These cases are typically manifested by an abnormally intense cyclonic circulation extending over the North Pacific basin, an unusually strong and eastward-extended East Asian jet, and a well-defined Pacific-North American teleconnection pattern. We have conducted extensive diagnostic analyses in order to determine the mechanisms responsible for development. In particular, these diagnostics examine the processes influencing the time evolution of eddy potential enstrophy and potential vorticity anomalies. The cases are preceded by a buildup of anomalously high potential vorticity air at upper levels over eastern Asia. This high potential vorticity air is initially advected eastward in association with synoptic-scale cyclogenesis ...