Roberto Tatiwa Ferreira

Uma análise dos determinantes de desempenho em concurso público

The main objective of this paper was to peruse the role of socio-economic characteristics on the chance of success in an aptitude test for admission to a public bank in the Northeast of Brazil. Using a logit model, and a sample of 232,308 candidates, the main results of the model point that family income, type of education, age and residential location of the candidate are the key factors influencing success in the test. The results, therefore, reiterate a vicious circle of income concentration which can be extremely harmful to a poor region as the Northeast of Brazil.

Análise da área desmatada municipal na Amazônia brasileira no período 2000-2004: uma abordagem com modelos não lineares

Existe uma certa assimetria na distribuicao do desmatamento da Amazonia Legal brasileira, concentrando-se particularmente nos estados do Mato Grosso, Para e Rondonia, o que estaria, em principio, associado a certas caracteristicas comuns de suas atividades produtivas predominantes, como a pecuaria, a exploracao madeireira e, mais recentemente, a expansao da producao de graos. Todavia, pode-se indagar se e possivel a formacao de grupos de economias municipais com caracteristicas semelhantes, quanto as causas ligadas ao desmatamento. Com este objetivo em mente, procura-se neste artigo testar a hipotese de convergencia em clubes a partir das areas desmatadas dos municipios da Amazonia Legal no periodo de 2000 a 2004. A fim de alcancar o objetivo proposto foi utilizado um modelo com efeito limiar (threshold) baseado em Hansen (2000). Os resultados empiricos corroboram a hipotese levantada, no que concerne a formacao de quatro clubes de convergencia.

Determinação dos clubes de convergência da renda per capita agrícola: uma análise para os municípios cearenses

Este artigo analisa o processo de convergencia do valor da producao agricola dos municipios cearenses utilizando um modelo com efeito threshold no periodo de 1970 a 1996. Os resultados mostraram a existencia de quatro clubes de convergencia. Um formado pelo grupo de municipios mais ricos, outro formado pelo grupo de municipios mais pobres e dois grupos intermediarios. Os resultados intra-clubes indicam que tanto o capital humano como o capital fisico sao importantes na explicacao do processo de crescimento da agricultura cearense. Ja os resultados para a terra mostraram que este fator e importante apenas para os dois clubes mais ricos.

Convergência de mercados intrarregionais: o caso do mercado atacadista brasileiro do tomate

The objective of this paper is to examine the existence of integration in the Brazilian wholesaler tomato markets using a dynamic panel model that allows threshold effects to test the hypothesis of market convergence to the one price law. The results support the hypothesis of integration among the main tomato Brazilian markets. Furthermore, there are empirical evidences of transaction costs.

Speed of Reversion to PPP with Structural Breaks for Brazilian Cities

This article analyzes the effect of introducing structural breaks in calculating the convergence speed of relative prices for Brazilian cities in the period from 1991.01 to 2016.11. Three structural break dates were endogenously chosen (1996.02, 2001.12 and 2010.10) and they represent different situations of the Brazilian economy, with impacts on intra-national relative prices. The convergence speed, measured by the half-life, declined by approximately 77% after controlling for these structural changes. The result was robust to changes in numeraire both for calculation of the half-life and estimation of the structural break dates, and indicates the importance of considering structural breaks in calculating intra-national purchasing power parity, as found in other studies.

Modelos de índice de difusão para prever a taxa de crescimento do PIB agrícola brasileiro

This article uses linear and nonlinear diffusion index models to forecast, one step ahead, the quarterly growth rate of Brazilian Agricultural GDP. These models are composed by common factor which allow a significant reduction in the number of the original explanatory variables. After comparing the forecasts of these two models between themselves and with the ones generated by an AR model, used as benchmark, one comes to the conclusion that among the diffusion index models, the nonlinear model with a threshold effect presents a small improvement, in terms of predictive efficiency, in relation to the linear and the AR models.

Ciclos econômicos na taxa de crescimento do ICMS

The main objective of this work is to investigate if there are and what are the principal features in the business cycle of ad valorem taxs growth rate. To do that, Markov-switching and threshold models were used to estimate and analyze the business cycle in the monthly growth rate of Cearas ad-valorem tax and to forecast. The results show that there are three regimes in the business cycle on the variable under analysis, and the growth rate of tourism and industrial activity may be used as threshold variables, which gives information about Cearas ad-valorem tax business cycle and its future values.