Fabricio Linhares

Os Programas de Transferência de Renda do Governo Impactam a Pobreza no Brasil

The widespread view that income transfers help to reduce the incidence of poverty has been asserted by many policymakers and citizens who support income transfer programs in Brazil. Nevertheless, a number of analysts contend that such programs are in fact ineffective in reducing poverty, because only a small share of the income that is transferred actually reaches the poor, or because such programs create a poverty trap. This article peruses this issue investigating the relationship between poverty and government income transfer in Brazil, over the period 2000-2008, controlling for other relevant variables that may affect poverty such as economic growth, inequality, education, unemployment and the number of female-headed families. Results from dynamic panel data models, proposed by Arellano e Bond (1991) and Blundell e Bond (1998), indicate that poverty is not affected by government income transfers, which support the critic view that income transfer programs in Brazil do not have the expect effect on poverty. Among other findings, education and inequality play an important role in the recent poverty dynamics in Brazil.

Previsão da demanda por energia elétrica para classes de consumo na região Nordeste, usando OLS dinâmico e mudança de regime

The objective of this research is to estimate the residential, commercial and industrial demand for electric energy in the Northeast of Brazil during the period 1970-2003. Two different methodologies were used to compute price and income elasticities of demand: i) DOLS, proposed by Stock and Watson (1993); and ii) Regime Switching, by Gregory and Hansen (1996). Error Correction Models were estimated using the cointegrating vectors. These models are used to perform long-run forecasts of demand for the period 2004-2010. The main results are then compared to those from other studies about Brazilians price and income elasticities of demand for electric energy. Furthermore, an analysis of forecast performance shows that these models predict as good or better than Eletrobras and Siqueira, Cordeiro Jr. e Castelar (2006).

Os efeitos da Lei de Responsabilidade Fiscal no endividamento dos municípios do Piauí

La Ley de Responsabilidad Fiscal (LRF) busca, a su paso, imprimir la austeridad en la efectuacion de los gastos publicos. Su finalidad es equilibrar los gastos publicos imprimiendo en su contexto una nueva perspectiva fiscal. Esto articulo aplica una modificacion de la metodologia propuesta por De Jesus Macedo y Corbari (2009) para evaluar los efectos de la LRF en el endeudamiento municipal, teniendo como base de datos los municipios del estado de Piaui, Brasil. Dado que la LRF fue implantada en 2000, el objetivo del articulo es verificar se hubo cambio en el endeudamiento municipal desde la implementacion de esa ley. El estudio sugiere que los municipios de Piaui redujeron su deuda en aproximadamente un 7% despues de la implementacion de la LRF.

Há controvérsia entre análises de beta e sigma-convergência no Brasil?

This article discusses a controversy between tests of convergence of percapita income based on time series analyses and cross-section regressions. The cross-section analyses are based on the hypothesis of beta convergence, while the second one is equivalent to sigma-convergence analysis. Here, it is argued that this conflict is due to a possible non-linearity in the convergence process associated with formation of convergence clubs. Tests of the convergence hypothesis based on nonlinear models of Hansen (2000) and Phillips e Sul (2007) are conducted for the Brazilian case. The first test is based on a cross-section regression, while the second in time series analysis. Both tests point to the formation of two convergence clubs alike. For each club is noted evidence of both beta and sigma convergence, and the controversy of results previously reported is resolved.

Uma Nota Sobre “Teste da Convergência do PIB per capita da Agropecuária no Brasilâ€

This note discusses the contradiction between β and σ- convergence tests of agricultural per capita GDP, which was recently presented by Spohr and Freitas (RESR, vol. 49, No. 02, p. 341-368, April / June 2011). While the first type of test supports the hypothesis of convergence, the σ- convergence test does not validate this hypothesis. It is argued that this contradiction probably arises from nonlinearities in the convergence process, which can characterize the formation of convergence clubs. The convergence test was done again in a more rigorous way, according to the methodology proposed by Caselli, Eesquivel and Lefort (1996) and, subsequently, the formation of convergence clubs is tested using the methodology proposed in Phillips and Sul (2007), which has the advantage of accommodating various types of heterogeneity. The formation of three convergence clubs is confirmed and these results try to clarify the contradiction previously reported.

EFEITO DA DESIGUALDADE NO CRESCIMENTO ECONÔMICO DOS MUNICÍPIOS BRASILEIROS: UMA ANÁLISE COM BASE NO JACKKNIFE MODEL AVERAGING

O presente artigo investiga a relacao entre crescimento economico e desigualdade de renda levando em consideracao a incerteza com relacao a especificacao do modelo econometrico. Para evitar uma especificacao inadequada, aqui faz se uso da tecnica de ponderacao de modelos proposta em Hansen e Racine (2012) conhecida por Jackknife Model Averaging. Esta tecnica consiste em estimar todas as possiveis especificacoes de modelos com um amplo conjunto de variaveis e entao calcular um modelo que e uma media ponderada de todos os outros estimados. A escolha dos fatores de ponderacao e feita com base na minimizacao do criterio de validacao cruzada. Dado o elevado custo computacional, a analise foi feita levando-se em consideracao tres cenarios. Apesar do esforco de pesquisa, nossos resultados sugerem que nao ha evidencias de que a desigualdade de renda exerceu influencia sobre a taxa de crescimento da economia brasileira no periodo de 2000 a 2009.

Effects of the Fiscal Responsibility Law on the indebtedness of towns in Piauí, Brazil

La Ley de Responsabilidad Fiscal (LRF) busca, a su paso, imprimir la austeridad en la efectuacion de los gastos publicos. Su finalidad es equilibrar los gastos publicos imprimiendo en su contexto una nueva perspectiva fiscal. Esto articulo aplica una modificacion de la metodologia propuesta por De Jesus Macedo y Corbari (2009) para evaluar los efectos de la LRF en el endeudamiento municipal, teniendo como base de datos los municipios del estado de Piaui, Brasil. Dado que la LRF fue implantada en 2000, el objetivo del articulo es verificar se hubo cambio en el endeudamiento municipal desde la implementacion de esa ley. El estudio sugiere que los municipios de Piaui redujeron su deuda en aproximadamente un 7% despues de la implementacion de la LRF.

Los efectos de la Ley de Responsabilidad Fiscal en el endeudamiento de los municipios de Piauí, Brasil

La Ley de Responsabilidad Fiscal (LRF) busca, a su paso, imprimir la austeridad en la efectuacion de los gastos publicos. Su finalidad es equilibrar los gastos publicos imprimiendo en su contexto una nueva perspectiva fiscal. Esto articulo aplica una modificacion de la metodologia propuesta por De Jesus Macedo y Corbari (2009) para evaluar los efectos de la LRF en el endeudamiento municipal, teniendo como base de datos los municipios del estado de Piaui, Brasil. Dado que la LRF fue implantada en 2000, el objetivo del articulo es verificar se hubo cambio en el endeudamiento municipal desde la implementacion de esa ley. El estudio sugiere que los municipios de Piaui redujeron su deuda en aproximadamente un 7% despues de la implementacion de la LRF.

Análise das disparidades de bem-estar entre os estados do Brasil

The processes of global convergence and formation of convergence clubs of the social welfare index proposed by Sen (1974) are tested through a time series methodology

Convergência do PIB per capita agropecuário estadual: uma análise de séries temporais

This article examines the existence of common trends of the participation of the agricultural sector in GDP per capita and the formation of convergence clubs among Brazilian states assuming the possibility of heterogeneity in their processes of development. The methodology employed here suggest the formation of two groups of convergence: the first formed by the states of Acre, Espirito Santo, Goias, Mato Grosso do Sul, Mato Grosso, Minas Gerais, Parana, Rondonia, Roraima, Rio Grande do Sul, Santa Catarina, Sao Paulo e Tocantins; and the second consisting of Alagoas, Amazonas, Amapa, Bahia, Ceara, Maranhao, Para, Paraiba, Pernambuco, Piaui, Rio de Janeiro, Rio Grande do Norte e Sergipe.