Robin Naylor

Determinants of Degree Performance in UK Universities: A Statistical Analysis of the 1993 Student Cohort

We exploit a unique data-set matching individual-level data for the 1993 cohort of UK university leavers to DfEE school-level data. We analyze the determinants of undergraduate degree performance using an ordered probit regression model, and find that degree performance is influenced positively by A-level score, positively by occupationally-ranked social class background and is significantly worse both for students who had previously attended an Independent school and for male students. We find that the significance of these effects is robust across different subsamples of the population, and we explore the variation in the magnitude of the effects. We also find that very little of the gender performance gap can be explained by gender differences in observed characteristics and that the superior performance of females is reversed only in the case of Oxbridge students. Copyright 2001 by Blackwell Publishing Ltd

A model of tax evasion with group conformity and social customs

Abstract A model of tax evasion is investigated in which a social custom utility is derived when taxes are payed honestly and there is a conformity payoff from adhering to the standard pattern of social behaviour. A taxpayer faces a choice between whether to evade or not and, if evasion is chosen, a straightforward choice with risk over the level of evasion. This framework reconciles the standard model of tax evasion with the social custom and conformity model and the observation that some taxpayers do not evade. The existence of social equilibria is proven and it is shown that both equilibria with no evasion and with all taxpayers choosing to evade may exist. The no-evasion equilibrium may be destroyed by a small change in the tax rate leading to epidemics of evasion after seemingly insignificant tax changes. The comparative statics of interior equilibria can explain the findings of Clotfelter (1983) and Crane and Nourzad (1986) concerning observed aggregate data on tax evasion. Predictions are also made upon how the proportion of evaders is affected by changes in the environment. A number of extensions of the basic framework are also considered and, with one exception, it is argued that these do not significantly modify the conclusion derived.

Dropping out of university: A statistical analysis of the probability of withdrawal for UK university students

From individual level data for an entire cohort of undergraduate students in the ‘old’ universities in the UK, we use a binomial probit model to estimate the probability that an individual will ‘drop out’ of university before the completion of their degree course. We examine the cohort of students enrolling full time for a 3‐ or 4‐year degree in the academic year 1989–1990. We find evidence to support both the hypothesis that the completion of courses by students is influenced by the extent of prior academic preparedness and the hypothesis that social integration at university is important. We also find an influence of unemployment in the county of prior residence, especially for poorer male students. Finally, we draw conclusions regarding the public policy of constructing university performance indicators in this area.

International trade and economic integration when labour markets are generally unionised

Abstract The paper develops a theoretical framework in which international trade occurs between economies with imperfectly competitive product markets and unionised labour markets. We are able to investigate the impact on both product and labour market outcomes of increased product market integration across the trading economies. Our strongest result is the finding that increased integration leads monopoly unions to set higher Nash equilibrium wages. In other words, a more competitive product market does not necessarily generate a more competitive labour market.

Graduate Employability: Policy and Performance in Higher Education in the UK

The UK government is introducing new sets of indicators designed to measure the performance of universities. A first wave of indicators was published in December 1999. A performance indicator based on graduate employment outcomes will follow. This paper proposes a method for developing employment-related performance indicators based on the analysis of data on the first destinations of a full cohort of leavers from pre-1992 universities in the United Kingdom. We analyse the determinants of graduate first destinations and suggest a method for the construction of university performance indicators. We also discuss limitations of league tables based on university performance indicators.

The Cournot-Bertrand profit differential: A reversal result in a differentiated duopoly with wage bargaining

This paper compares Cournot and Bertrand equilibria in a downstream differentiated duopoly in which the input price (wage) paid by each downstream firm is the outcome of a strategic bargain with its upstream supplier (labour union). We show that the standard result that Cournot equilibrium profits exceed those under Bertrand competition - when the differentiated duopoly game is played in imperfect substitutes - is reversible. Whether equilibrium profits are higher under Cournot or Bertrand competition is shown to depend upon the nature of the upstream agents’ preferences, on the distribution of bargaining power over the input price and on the degree of product market differentiation. We find that the standard result holds unless unions are both powerful and place considerable weight on the wage argument in their utility function. One implication of this is that if the upstream agents are profit-maximising firms, then the standard result will obtain.

Strikes, Free Riders, and Social Customs

In recent years there has been a growing literature on the role of social customs in the labour market. Marsden (1986), for example, has emphasised the importance of group norms and social custom in various labour market contexts. Jones (1984) develops an economic model of conformist behaviour in which an individuals work effort is determined partly by tradition and by the behaviour of other workers. A central theme of the literature is that a rational economic agent does not inhabit a social vacuum and hence that individual behaviour is influenced, to some extent, by the actions of others. The approach promises the possibility of an escape from the free-riders problem, which, as we shall investigate, might have a number of labour market applications. Such a potential has been suggested by a number of writers in different fields. Eiser (1978), writing from a socio-psychological perspective, has stressed the role of social norms in producing cooperative outcomes in the theoretical context of the prisoner’s dilemma. Such an emphasis is consistent with Sens (1977) argument that the concept of commitment might offer a solution to the free rider problems.

Factors affecting the probability of first year medical student dropout in the UK: a logistic analysis for the intake cohorts of 1980–92

Background  In the context of the 1997 Report of the Medical Workforce Standing Advisory Committee, it is important that we develop an understanding of the factors influencing medical school retention rates.

Industry profits and competition under bilateral oligopoly

Abstract We show that, contrary to the key result of the standard Cournot–Nash oligopoly model, industry profits can increase with the number of firms if input prices are not exogenous but are determined by bargaining in bilateral oligopoly.

Dropping out of medical school in the UK : Explaining the changes over ten years

Context  In the context of changing admissions criteria and an expanding medical school intake in the UK, we analysed the determinants of the medical school dropout probability.