Roger Mackett

THE IMPACT OF NEW URBAN PUBLIC TRANSPORT SYSTEMS: WILL THE EXPECTATIONS BE MET?

There is increasing concern about dependence on the car and the need to improve the environment in many cities. One approach is to construct new public transport systems. Many of these are being planned and constructed in cities around the world. This paper is concerned with the way in which decisions are made about such systems, in particular the rationale underlying the decision-making process and the implications for the city in terms of travel demand, urban development and the environment. The analysis is based upon a worldwide survey carried out as part of a project to investigate the decision-making process involving the selection of the most appropriate technology for an urban transport system.

Why do people use their cars for short trips

The number of short trips by car is increasing. The objective of this paper is to look at why people use their cars for such trips. The paper draws upon the results of surveys carried out as part of a project for the Department of the Environment, Transport and the Regions (DETR) to investigate the potential for switching short car trips to other modes in Great Britain. The paper commences by considering the various approaches used to look at why people travel by car and, from these, concludes that there is a need to examine the behaviour underlying specific real trips by car. This is followed by a description of the survey methodology used in the project which forms the core of this paper. Then the evidence on why people used their cars for a set of real short trips identified in the surveys is presented. This is considered in terms of a number of dimensions including age, sex, and trip purpose. This is followed by a discussion of the alternatives to the car that drivers say that they might adopt and the factors which they say would make them consider switching to these alternatives.

Gender differences in children's pathways to independent mobility

This paper presents some empirical findings relating to the independent mobility of children in two parts of south-east England – one a south London borough, the other a suburban county north of London. In both locations boys appear to enjoy greater mobility than girls, and become independent much earlier. But closer analysis suggests that girls manage to attain similar levels of independence from adults by travelling more in groups. This collective independence achieved through peers is often overlooked, and may compensate modern children to some extent for their loss of individual freedom.

POLICIES TO ATTRACT DRIVERS OUT OF THEIR CARS FOR SHORT TRIPS

This paper examines the policies and personal actions that might attract motorists out of their cars onto the alternatives for short trips. The analysis is based on the results of surveys carried out on a project for the UK Department of the Environment, Transport and the Regions. The various events that car drivers say could attract them to an alternative are examined. The actions associated with each of the alternatives to the car are identified. According to the respondents, the most significant action to reduce the number of car trips would be to improve public transport. The potential impact of the implementation of all the actions identified on the number of short car trips nationally is calculated.

Developing new urban public transport systems: An irrational decision-making process

The decision-making process for planning new urban public transport systems in the UK is examined by studying 11 new and planned systems. The objectives of building the systems relate to transport and development issues. A number of key factors are taken into account during the decision-making process: forecast demand, image, deregulation of buses, technological innovation, private sector involvement and the funding mechanism. The requirement for proven technology and the forecast demand for the systems reduces the choice to one of light rail or bus. The effects of bus deregulation, funding and image, essentially reduce that choice to light rail or nothing. Cost should be kept low, which suggests a bus based system, but current legislation favours more expensive light rail systems. The conclusion is that although transport planners make rational decisions within the current political framework, the framework, and therefore some of the decisions, are not rational.

NEW URBAN RAIL SYSTEMS: A POLICY-BASED TECHNIQUE TO MAKE THEM MORE SUCCESSFUL.

The objective of this paper is to describe a methodological framework that can be used to make new urban rail systems more successful. Eight systems are used in the design of the framework. Previous research and impact studies about the systems as well as information provided through interviews with planners and operators have been used to establish which of the systems have been successful. The information is also used to identify the factors which have influenced the degree of success or otherwise of the eight systems. Based on the identified links between various factors and success, the methodology provides predictions about how successful an urban rail system is likely to be and suggestions on how its success can be enhanced. The framework has been validated against data supplied in response to a written questionnaire for nine other systems. It has been found to give convincing results.

One city, three models: comparison of land‐use/transport policy simulation models for Dortmund

The paper reports on simulation experiments conducted by the International Study Group on Land‐Use/Transport Interaction (ISGLUTI) for the metropolitan region of Dortmund in the Federal Republic of Germany. Three land‐use/transport simulation models were applied to the Dortmund region: the DORTMUND model developed at the University of Dortmund, the LILT model being used at University College London and the MEPLAN package developed by Marcial Echenique & Partners in Cambridge. The three models are briefly characterized and their ex‐post forecasts are compared with the actual development of the region. The final section of the paper compares how the three models respond to a common set of assumptions and policies from the fields of land‐use control, traffic management and transport investment. The differences in model response give insights into the validity of the theoretical foundations and internal structure of the models.

A METHODOLOGY FOR EVALUATING WALKING BUSES AS AN INSTRUMENT OF URBAN TRANSPORT POLICY

Walking buses are a relatively new phenomenon to encourage children to use an alternative to the car to travel to school. They consist of a group of children walking in a line along a set route, escorted by adults, and stopping to collect children at specific stops. There have been few systematic evaluations of their effectiveness as policy instruments. This paper describes a methodological framework to evaluate walking buses that is being developed as part of a larger project on childrens car use. The paper uses preliminary data from five schools to demonstrate the types of outcome that can be considered within the framework.

Impact of New Transport Infrastructure on Walking, Cycling, and Physical Activity.

Introduction Walking and cycling bring health and environmental benefits, but there is little robust evidence that changing the built environment promotes these activities in populations. This study evaluated the effects of new transport infrastructure on active commuting and physical activity. Study design Quasi-experimental analysis nested within a cohort study. Setting/participants Four hundred and sixty-nine adult commuters, recruited through a predominantly workplace-based strategy, who lived within 30 kilometers of Cambridge, United Kingdom and worked in areas of the city to be served by the new transport infrastructure. Intervention The Cambridgeshire Guided Busway opened in 2011 and comprised a new bus network and a traffic-free walking and cycling route. Exposure to the intervention was defined using the shortest distance from each participant’s home to the busway. Main outcome measures Change in weekly time spent in active commuting between 2009 and 2012, measured by validated 7-day recall instrument. Secondary outcomes were changes in total weekly time spent walking and cycling and in recreational and overall physical activity, measured using the validated Recent Physical Activity Questionnaire. Data were analyzed in 2014. Results In multivariable multinomial regression models—adjusted for potential sociodemographic, geographic, health, and workplace confounders; baseline active commuting; and home or work relocation—exposure to the busway was associated with a significantly greater likelihood of an increase in weekly cycle commuting time (relative risk ratio=1.34, 95% CI=1.03, 1.76) and with an increase in overall time spent in active commuting among the least active commuters at baseline (relative risk ratio=1.76, 95% CI=1.16, 2.67). The study found no evidence of changes in recreational or overall physical activity. Conclusions Providing new sustainable transport infrastructure was effective in promoting an increase in active commuting. These findings provide new evidence to support reconfiguring transport systems as part of public health improvement strategies.

THE SYSTEMATIC APPLICATION OF THE LILT MODEL TO DORTMUND, LEEDS AND TOKYO

This paper is concerned with the application of the Leeds Integrated Land‐use Transport model (LILT) to three study areas: Dortmund, Leeds and Tokyo, as part of the work of the International Study Group on Land‐Use Transport Interaction (ISGLUTI). The model is described briefly, with emphasis on the modification necessary to match the characteristics of the cities which are compared. The model is applied to sixteen policy tests for the three areas, covering changes in travel costs and speeds, population growth and the relocation of economic activity. The results are analysed in terms of the modal shares, elasticities, distances travelled and relocation of employment and population. It is shown that the characteristics of the study areas produce different results. In particular, the relationship between accessibility and the competition of land strongly influences the location of urban activities with consequential implications for travel demand. Other important factors are car ownership and the value of t...