Roger Perman

Cointegration : an introduction to the literature

An overview of the cointegration approach to econometric specification and estimation is provided. A non-technical approach is adopted, and is intended to serve as an entry into this important new literature for the reader with no background knowledge of the subject but with some limited knowledge of econometrics. Particular emphases are given to the rationale for using cointegration techniques in the estimation of economic relationships, to providing intuitive explanations of the concepts and techniques, and to demonstrating their applications in practice. Reference is made throughout to other articles which explain particular methods or recent developments more formally and fully than is possible here. Finally, a simple application of cointegration techniques to the estimation of the consumption function is provided.

Unit Roots and Cointegration for the Economist

Previous papers by one of the authors, Perman (1989, 1991), have proved popular amongst applied economists seeking an introduction to the new econometrics of unit roots and cointegration. The aim of the present paper is, as before, to provide a comprehensive overview of the field in a manner which minimises the technical knowledge required of the reader and which offers intuitive explanations wherever possible. Other useful surveys, at a slightly higher technical level, include the special issues of the Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics (March 1986, August 1992), Dolado et al. (1990) and Campbell and Perron (1991). In this introduction we motivate the study of unit roots and cointegration, and outline the contents of the rest of the chapter.

Amos - a macro-micro model of Scotland

Abstract The paper gives a detailed description of AMOS, a macro-micro simulation framework parameterized on Scottish data. From a macroeconomic modelling perspective, AMOS has two relatively novel features: the supply side is specified in terms of the microeconomic behaviour of ‘representative transactors’ and there is a wide choice over the precise form of supply-side behaviour. An outline of model software, a full model listing and illustrative simulations are also provided.

A cross-country analysis of the Okun's Law coefficient convergence in Europe

The paper examines whether or not evidence is consistent with convergence of the Okuns Law coefficient (OLC) among several alternative groupings of European economies. A two-step empirical strategy is employed. The first step obtains rolling regression estimates of the OLC for individual European countries. The second step examines how the cross-country variance of the OLC evolves over the decade until 2002 in the selected country groupings. Evidence is found consistent with convergence of the OLC among northern European countries, and among countries with centralized wage bargaining, but an absence of convergence in other country groups.

Preferences, inequity and entitlements: some issues from a CVM study of water supply in Madras, India

Improving the urban environment in developing countries is now an emerging priority. In that context, valuation is an important source of information to the policy-makers. This paper discusses the application of a multiple choice contingent valuation method to improvements in water supply in Madras, based on a 1996 survey of households in Madras. It is proposed that property rights regimes for the environmental goods concerned can be incorporated into the valuation framework using Sens entitlements approach. As a step in that direction, a water endowment function has been defined for households in Madras. Issues for policy and research are raised. Copyright

Regional growth and unemployment in the medium run: asymmetric cointegrated Okun's Law for UK regions

This article tests for the presence of a medium-run asymmetric Okun’s Law relationship between regional output and regional unemployment rate in UK regions. The test is performed with a panel data version of the hidden cointegration technique suggested by Granger and Yoon. A novelty of the article is to combine the method of hidden cointegration with a panel data method of removing cross-sectional dependence. The medium-run Okun relationship for regions in the UK appears to confirm results found elsewhere in the literature on countries as a whole, although the coefficients tend to be smaller.

Development and the environment : an introduction

This paper has two objectives. First, it investigates some conceptual linkages between the sub-disciplines of development economics and environmental economics. We find common methodological orientations, and shared interests in growth processes, resources and sustainability, international trade, market mechanisms and market failure, institutions, and co-operative international behaviour. Second, it introduces the other papers that appear in this special issue, and sets them within the context of the common orientations and themes that have been identified here. Finally, we offer some recommendations for the design of syllabuses in the field of development and environmental economics.

Doing statistics for business with Excel: data, inference and decision making: M. K. Pelosi, T. M. Sandifer, John Wiley, London, ISBN 0-471-39935-3, Paperback, GBP38.95.

techniques for getting the viewer close to the animals, is a perfect example: having watched the programme, you may have been stimulated, you may even have learned something, but education is far more pressurised, far more intense. From an hour’s lesson a great deal more has to happen than mere exposure to startling and cute pictures. Education is about learning not just learningabout. Electronic screens, whether televised or software driven can certainly capture and focus attention, but they cannot permit the user to choose how to direct their attention and then respond to that choice. They cannot reproduce the teacher’s ability to promote sense-making by students through reflection on what they have seen and done. Since education is essentially about learning to direct your attention, to concentrate and decentrate, to focus and to blur, to stress and to ignore, it takes the presence of a human intelligence to stimulate, foster and support the presurised learning necessary to take part in our complex society. Thus, ICT will for the foreseeable future be a medium with which to teach, not a medium in which to teach. This book is excellent in showing teachers in detail how to teach with ICT in a variety of ways. It also has an extensive and useful bibliography spanning both practice and research.

Quelle est la valeur du coefficient d’Okun ? Une analyse de type meta-régression

A partir d’un echantillon compose de 522 estimateurs du coefficient d’Okun, nous effectuons une meta regression pour analyser les origines des differences entre les valeurs estimees et publiees de ce coefficient . L’analyse revele la presence de biais de selection de type I et de type II dans l’echantillon. Apres prise en compte de ces biais, nous obtenons un intervalle de confiance a 95% pour le veritable coefficient d’Okun compris entre une valeur minimale de –0,40 et une valeur maximale de –0,12. L’analyse multivariee revele ensuite que les coefficients d’Okun estimes sont significativement plus grands (en valeur absolue) lorsque les analyses econometriques sont basees sur des donnees regionales ou utilisent une filtre de type trend lineaire deterministe. Par contre les coefficients d’Okun estimes sont plus faibles (en valeur absolue) lorsque les analyses empiriques sont effectuees a partir de donnees trimestrielles ou semestrielles, ou bien utilisent des donnees relatives a des pays en developpement, ou bien encore utilisent des specifications non lineaires.