Roman Kanala

Socio-Markal (Somarkal): First Modeling Attempts in the Nyon Residential and Commercial Sectors Taking into Account Behavioural Uncertainties

There is no doubt that the current century is an era of environmental awareness which will require meeting the growing demands by means of a set of generating technologies, while minimising Greenhouse Gas emissions. Provided that technologies alone could not solve the problem, we have integrated the sociological dimension, represented by the potentially powerful resource for energy conservation that exists in the ability of consumers to change their behaviour. This study aims at proposing a new MARKAL framework that would take into account consumers’ technological improvements and behavioural changes minimizing carbon dioxide emissions and encouraging rational use of energy. As opposed to the traditional MARKAL framework based on technical and economic considerations, the SOMARKAL model integrates technological, economic and behavioural contributions to the environment. Essentially, the conceptual aspects of the SOMARKAL will be presented. Based on this new MARKAL formulation, we will simulate the possible contribution of awareness campaigns in triggering energy consumption behavioural changes and possibilities of technology switch, in the residential area of the city of Nyon (Switzerland), for the period 2005-2025, using ANSWER, the IEA’s platform. The main focus is on lighting technologies. Three fictitious scenarios were produced, referring to three possible penetration rates of low consumption lighting technologies.

A GIS-based regional energy-environment policy model

This paper describes a regional energy-environment modelling approach that explicitly takes into account the spatial distribution of production and demand activities, with their associated emissions. Indeed, some of the information used at a regional level has a spatial representation (e.g. district heating, electricity grid, natural gas network, traffic, public transport, etc.). We have defined a model structure that allows spatial modelling through the use of integer programming techniques in association with a linkage to a geographical information system. The energy model then becomes a part of an integrated interactive Decision Support System, allowing the decision maker to assess the consequences of the energy policy choices on air pollution and on population exposure to health risk factors. The model is currently in its implementation phase for the Canton of Geneva, Switzerland.

Modelling Domestic Lighting Energy Consumption in Romania by Integrating Consumers Behavior

Abstract Sustainable energy consumption is a research area of a large interest in last years. New energy-efficient lighting technologies exist, which can significantly reduce household electricity consumption, but their adoption has been slow. A considerable number of international studies show that sustainable development scenarios will be realistic if they involve the human behavior. The paper provides a solution to integrate consumer behavior with techno-economic energy issues, inside a complex energy model. This approach aims to reduce the error, from the demand side of the energy model. Consumer behavior in energy consumption is described by using specific attributes of energy technologies, namely virtual technologies. The GAMS/TIMES/VEDA energy modelling software tool has been used to integrate the techno-economic energy specific data and consumer behavior, in order to achieve the research purposes. A sociological survey about Romanians’ behavior in energy consumption has been conducted and its results have been integrated in the energy based model, in form of virtual technologies. This approach, known as “Social MARKAL”, allows the analyst to evaluate the possible contribution of information campaigns in changing lighting consumers’ behavior and effect of technology switch. The model is developed for the period 2010-2026, and is implemented by using GAMS/TIMES/VEDA software platform. The results presented this paper focuses on the household lighting technologies.

An Energy Optimization Framework for Sustainability Analysis: Inclusion of Behavioral Parameters as a Virtual Technology in Energy Optimization Models

This chapter introduces an innovative approach that combines the deductive method used to construct normative energy-economy models and the inductive method of social sciences. Consumer behavior is described via technological attributes and used in virtual process technologies in an energy optimization framework. The main finding is that it is possible to evaluate consumer information and behavior together with technological progress and integrate them on the same modeling platform. The approach eliminates the systematic error on the demand side where the efficiency of demand-side management measures is over optimistic, which may lead to inaccurate decisions and poor policies. Thus, this method paves the way to a new stream in energy modeling.

Mixing Behavioral and Technological Data in Mathematical Programming Framework

Optimisation models for energy environmental planning based on the concept of economic equilibria share a common flaw that stems from their neoclassic roots: hypothesis of a perfect information and hypothesis of perfect economic rationality. A way to circumvent this issue consists in soft-linking data from sociological surveys that determine technical coefficients for MARKAL model, creating a hybrid approach of coupling a deductive engineering model with typical inductive methods of social sciences. Behavioural changes are described as virtual technologies with usual technology attributes. The method is illustrated on a case of lighting bulbs. The goal of the approach is to build long term policies that are not solely based on technology progress but also taking into account social change.