Roman Seidl

Modeling Social-Ecological Feedback Effects in the Implementation of Payments for Environmental Services in Pasture-Woodlands

An effective implementation of payment for environmental services (PES) must allow for complex interactions of coupled social-ecological systems. We present an integrative study of the pasture-woodland landscape of the Swiss Jura Mountains combining methods from natural and social sciences to explore feedback between vegetation dynamics on paddock level, farm-based decision making, and policy decisions on the national political level. Our modeling results show that concomitant climatic and socioeconomic changes advance the loss of open grassland in silvopastoral landscapes. This would, in the longer term, deteriorate the historical wooded pastures in the region, which fulfill important functions for biodiversity and are widely considered as landscapes that deserve protection. Payment for environmental services could counteract this development while respecting historical land-use and ecological boundary conditions. The assessed policy feedback process reveals that current policy processes may hinder the implementation of PES, even though a payment for the upkeep of wooded pasture would generally enjoy the backing of the relevant policy network. To effectively support the upkeep of the wooded pastures in the Jura, concomitant policy changes, such as market deregulation, must also be taken into account.

Feedback loops and types of adaptation in the modelling of land-use decisions in an agent-based simulation

A key challenge of land-use modelling for supporting sustainable land management is to understand how environmental feedback that emerges from land-use actions can reshape land-use decisions in the long term. To investigate this issue, we apply the Human-Environment System framework formulated by Scholz (2011) as a conceptual guide to read typical feedback loops in land-use systems. We use an agent-based land-use change model (LUDAS) developed by Le et al. (2008, 2010) to test the sensitivity of long-term land-use dynamics to the inclusion of secondary feedback loop learning with respect to different system performance indicators at different levels of aggregation. Simulation experiments were based on a case study that was carried out in the Hong Ha watershed (Vietnam). We specified two model versions that represent two mechanisms of human adaptation in land-use decisions to environmental changes that emerged from land-use actions. The first mechanism includes only primary feedback loop learning, i.e. households adapt to the annual change in socio-ecological conditions and direct environmental response to land-use activities. The second mechanism includes the first one and secondary feedback loop learning, in which households can change their behavioural model in response to changes in socio-ecological conditions at the landscape-community level in the longer term. Spatial-temporal patterns of land-use and interrelated community income changes driven from the two feedback mechanisms are compared in order to evaluate the added value of the inclusion of secondary feedback loop learning. The results demonstrate that the effect of the added secondary feedback loop learning on land-use dynamics depends on domain type, time scale, and aggregation level of the impact indicators.

Sustainable Land Use in Mountain Regions Under Global Change: Synthesis Across Scales and Disciplines

Mountain regions provide essential ecosystem goods and services (EGS) for both mountain dwellers and people living outside these areas. Global change endangers the capacity of mountain ecosystems to provide key services. The Mountland project focused on three case study regions in the Swiss Alps and aimed to propose land-use practices and alternative policy solutions to ensure the provision of key EGS under climate and land-use changes. We summarized and synthesized the results of the project and provide insights into the ecological, socioeconomic, and political processes relevant for analyzing global change impacts on a European mountain region. In Mountland, an integrative approach was applied, combining methods from economics and the political and natural sciences to analyze ecosystem functioning from a holistic human-environment system perspective. In general, surveys, experiments, and model results revealed that climate and socioeconomic changes are likely to increase the vulnerability of the EGS analyzed. We regard the following key characteristics of coupled human-environment systems as central to our case study areas in mountain regions: thresholds, heterogeneity, trade-offs, and feedback. Our results suggest that the institutional framework should be strengthened in a way that better addresses these characteristics, allowing for (1) more integrative approaches, (2) a more network-oriented management and steering of political processes that integrate local stakeholders, and (3) enhanced capacity building to decrease the identified vulnerability as central elements in the policy process. Further, to maintain and support the future provision of EGS in mountain regions, policy making should also focus on project-oriented, cross-sectoral policies and spatial planning as a coordination instrument for land use in general.

Constructing Consistent Multiscale Scenarios by Transdisciplinary Processes: the Case of Mountain Regions Facing Global Change

Alpine regions in Europe, in particular, face demanding local challenges, e.g., the decline in the agriculture and timber industries, and are also prone to global changes, such as in climate, with potentially severe impacts on tourism. We focus on the Visp region in the Upper Valais, Switzerland, and ask how the process of stakeholder involvement in research practice can contribute to a better understanding of the specific challenges and future development of mountainous regions under global change. Based on a coupled human-environment system (HES) perspective, we carried out a formative scenario analysis to develop a set of scenarios for the future directions of the Visp region. In addition, we linked these regional scenarios to context scenarios developed at the global and Swiss levels via an external consistency analysis. This method allows the coupling of both the scenario building process and the scenarios as such. We used a functional-dynamic approach to theory-practice cooperation, i.e., the involvement of key stakeholders from, for example, tourism, forestry, and administration, differed in type and intensity during the steps of the research process. In our study, we experienced strong problem awareness among the stakeholders concerning the impacts of global change and local challenges. The guiding research question was commonly defined and problem ownership was more or less balanced. We arrived at six multiscale scenarios that open up future trajectories for the Visp region, and present generic strategies to cope with global and local challenges. The results show that local identity, spatial planning, community budget, and demographic development are important steering elements in the region’s future development. We suggest that method-guided transdisciplinary processes result in a richer picture and a more systemic understanding, which enable a discussion of critical and surprising issues.

A functional-dynamic reflection on participatory processes in modeling projects

The participation of nonscientists in modeling projects/studies is increasingly employed to fulfill different functions. However, it is not well investigated if and how explicitly these functions and the dynamics of a participatory process are reflected by modeling projects in particular. In this review study, I explore participatory modeling projects from a functional-dynamic process perspective. The main differences among projects relate to the functions of participation—most often, more than one per project can be identified, along with the degree of explicit reflection (i.e., awareness and anticipation) on the dynamic process perspective. Moreover, two main approaches are revealed: participatory modeling covering diverse approaches and companion modeling. It becomes apparent that the degree of reflection on the participatory process itself is not always explicit and perfectly visible in the descriptions of the modeling projects. Thus, the use of common protocols or templates is discussed to facilitate project planning, as well as the publication of project results. A generic template may help, not in providing details of a project or model development, but in explicitly reflecting on the participatory process. It can serve to systematize the particular project’s approach to stakeholder collaboration, and thus quality management.

Interdisciplinary Collaboration between Natural and Social Sciences – Status and Trends Exemplified in Groundwater Research

Interdisciplinary collaboration, particularly between natural and social sciences, is perceived as crucial to solving the significant challenges facing humanity. However, despite the need for such collaboration being expressed more frequently and intensely, it remains unclear to what degree such collaboration actually takes place, what trends and developments there are and which actors are involved. Previous studies, often based on bibliometric analysis of large bodies of literature, partly observed an increase in interdisciplinary collaboration in general, but in particular, the collaboration among distant fields was less explored. Other more qualitative studies found that interdisciplinary collaboration, particularly between natural and social scientists was not well developed, and obstacles abounded. To shed some light on the actual status and developments of this collaboration, we performed an analysis based on a sample of articles on groundwater research. We first identified journals and articles therein that potentially combined natural and social science aspects of groundwater research. Next, we analysed the disciplinary composition of their authors’ teams, cited references, titles and keywords, making use of our detailed personal expertise in groundwater research and its interdisciplinary aspects. We combined several indicators developed from this analysis into a final classification of the degree of multidisciplinarity of each article. Covering the period between 1990 and 2014, we found that the overall percentage of multidisciplinary articles was in the low single-digit range, with only slight increases over the past decades. The interdisciplinarity of individuals plays a major role compared to interdisciplinarity involving two or more researchers. If collaboration with natural sciences takes place, social science is represented most often by economists. As a side result, we found that journals publishing multidisciplinary research had lower impact factors on average, and multidisciplinary papers were cited much less than mono-disciplinary ones.

Public preference of electricity options before and after Fukushima

The accident at the Fukushima nuclear power plant in spring 2011 spurred Germany and Switzerland to phase out nuclear technology. To ensure future electricity supply, this phase-out requires a strong commitment to accept alternative production technologies and energy strategies. This study examined if and how laypeoples preference for electricity produced by nuclear power and the alternatives in Switzerland has been affected by the Japanese disaster. An online study was conducted in February (N = 69) and repeated in June 2011 (N = 57), applying the same questionnaire to both samples. The study included a preference rating task involving nuclear, gas, photovoltaics, wind power, and hydropower, and choice-based conjoint tasks. The conjoint tasks contained attributes such as production technologies and price instruments. Participants had to choose their preferred combination of attributes. The results show that laypeoples preference for nuclear power dropped significantly between February and June 2011, whereas their preferences for other technologies changed only marginally. Furthermore, the envisaged mid-term “stepping stones” of gas and electricity imports on the way to renewable energy have been highly unpopular and have remained so after the Fukushima accident. Transitioning from nuclear energy to renewable energy, therefore, will likely be challenging.

Values in the siting of contested infrastructure: the case of repositories for nuclear waste

In major infrastructure projects, experts are usually regarded as responsible for producing and evaluating facts, whereas the public plays a role as far as values are concerned. In this study, we investigate the potential of values and value-related concepts in explaining acceptance of a deep ground repository for high-level radioactive waste in Switzerland. The study was in two parts, first, screening for relevant values using a questionnaire (N = 500) and, second, face-to-face interviews with 42 participants from the first part. Although the questionnaire could not predict overall acceptance on the basis of value concepts, interesting relative differences were nevertheless revealed between participants who were or were not affected by the potential siting of a deep geological repository in their own community. Additionally, the interviews offered insights into how values are related to the participatory process designed by the Swiss authorities.

Global change impacts on the Upper Danube Catchment (Central Europe): a study of participatory modeling

Participatory modeling (PM) has become an essential concept in environmental impact assessment and planning in the field of water resources. In this paper, we focus on the use of PM to support the development of the integrated regional modeling system DANUBIA as a scientific concept to analyze the previously unknown impacts of global change, i.e., the combined effects of climate, demographic, economic, social and ecological change, on the Upper Danube Catchment (Germany). We use this case study to examine the specific conditions for PM in the field of complex integrated models on a regional scale. We describe the stepwise PM process and discuss the respective results, focusing on (1) the stakeholder dialogue’s contribution in supporting the development of new, complex modeling systems, particularly on a regional scale, (2) conditions of stakeholder involvement in issues related to the distant future, such as climate change impacts on regional water availability, and (3) limitations of PM and scientists’ motivation to carry out participatory research at all. We conclude that the PM process was not entirely successful in improving the scientific quality and practical applicability of the developed models because the process goals were manifold and overambitious, and the definition of the problem of “global change impacts on a regional scale” was too weak and uncertain to allow for a clear common objective of modelers and stakeholders. We claim that there is a lack of incentives for scientists, particularly natural scientists, to commit to PM activities.

Navigating behavioral energy sufficiency : results from a survey in Swiss cities on potential behavior change

Many countries have some kind of energy-system transformation either planned or ongoing for various reasons, such as to curb carbon emissions or to compensate for the phasing out of nuclear energy. One important component of these transformations is the overall reduction in energy demand. It is generally acknowledged that the domestic sector represents a large share of total energy consumption in many countries. Increased energy efficiency is one factor that reduces energy demand, but behavioral approaches (known as “sufficiency”) and their respective interventions also play important roles. In this paper, we address citizens’ heterogeneity regarding both their current behaviors and their willingness to realize their sufficiency potentials—that is, to reduce their energy consumption through behavioral change. We collaborated with three Swiss cities for this study. A survey conducted in the three cities yielded thematic sets of energy-consumption behavior that various groups of participants rated differently. Using this data, we identified four groups of participants with different patterns of both current behaviors and sufficiency potentials. The paper discusses intervention types and addresses citizens’ heterogeneity and behaviors from a city-based perspective.