Ronald M. Nagatani

Detecting the recovery of total column ozone

International agreements for the limitation of ozone-depleting substances have already resulted in decreases in concentrations of some of these chemicals in the troposphere. Full compliance and understanding of all factors contributing to ozone depletion are still uncertain; however, reasonable expectations are for a gradual recovery of the ozone layer over the next 50 years. Because of the complexity of the processes involved in ozone depletion, it is crucial to detect not just a decrease in ozone-depleting substances but also a recovery in the ozone layer. The recovery is likely to be detected in some areas sooner than others because of natural variability in ozone concentrations. On the basis of both the magnitude and autocorrelation of the noise from Nimbus 7 Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer ozone measurements, estimates of the time required to detect a fixed trend in ozone at various locations around the world are presented. Predictions from the Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) two-dimensional chemical model are used to estimate the time required to detect predicted trends in different areas of the world. The analysis is based on our current understanding of ozone chemistry, full compliance with the Montreal Protocol and its amendments, and no intervening factors, such as major volcanic eruptions or enhanced stratospheric cooling. The results indicate that recovery of total column ozone is likely to be detected earliest in the Southern Hemisphere near New Zealand, southern Africa, and southern South America and that the range of time expected to detect recovery for most regions of the world is between 15 and 45 years. Should the recovery be slower than predicted by the GSFC model, owing, for instance, to the effect of greenhouse gas emissions, or should measurement sites be perturbed, even longer times would be needed for detection.

Detection of long-term trends in global stratospheric temperature from NMC analyses derived from NOAA satellite data

Abstract Since 24 September 1978 global daily fields of temperature and geopotential height at 8 stratospheric pressure levels 70 to 0.4 mb (18–55 km) have been produced at the U.S. National Meteorological Center. Temperature profiles derived from NOAA operational satellites constitute the sole data source for the upper stratospheric levels 5, 2, 1, and 0.4 mb (35, 42, 48 and 55 km). Significant changes in upper stratosphere reported temperatures have accompanied each of the eight changes in either operational satellite or method of data processing. Comparisons with rocketsonde data from 1978 to 1986 show bias changes of 1 to 5 Celsius degrees at various levels. For detecting long term trends of ambient stratospheric temperature, adjustments based on rocket comparisons must be applied to the NMC fields. Lack of data at north polar latitudes and in the southern hemisphere limits comprehensive characterization of temperature uncertainty. We discuss in detail our ability to characterize temperature uncertainty of the NMC stratospheric analyses. We specifically discuss our ability to detect a trend in the middle stratosphere temperature of about 1.5 celsius degrees per decade, the amount of change indicated likely by current theoretical models.

Comparison of U.K. Meteorological Office and U.S. National Meteorological Center stratospheric analyses during northern and southern winter

Meteorological data from the United Kingdom Meteorological Office (UKMO), produced using a data assimilation system, and the U.S. National Meteorological Center (NMC), produced using an objective analysis procedure, are compared for dynamically active periods during the Arctic and Antarctic winters of 1992. The differences seen during these periods are generally similar to those seen during other winter periods. Both UKMO and NMC analyses capture the large-scale evolution of the stratospheric circulation during northern hemisphere (NH) and southern hemisphere (SH) winters. Stronger vertical and horizontal temperature gradients develop in the UKMO than in the NMC data during stratospheric warmings; comparison with satellite measurements with better vertical resolution suggests that the stronger vertical temperature gradients are more realistic. The NH polar vortex is slightly stronger in the UKMO analyses than in the NMC in the middle and upper stratosphere, and midstratospheric temperatures are slightly lower. The SH polar vortex as represented in the UKMO analyses is stronger and colder in the midstratosphere than its representation in the NMC analyses. The UKMO analyses on occasion exhibit some difficulties in representing cross-polar flow or changes in curvature of the wind field at very high latitudes. In addition to the above study of two wintertime periods, a more detailed comparison of lower-stratospheric temperatures is done for all Arctic and Antarctic winter periods since the launch of the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite. In the NH lower stratosphere during winter, NMC temperatures are consistently lower than UKMO temperatures and closer to radiosonde temperatures than are UKMO temperatures. Conversely, in the SH lower stratosphere during winter, UKMO temperatures are typically lower than NMC and are closer to radiosonde temperature observations.

Interannual variability of the North Polar Vortex in the lower stratosphere during the UARS Mission

Northern winters since the 1991 launch of UARS are compared to earlier years (1978–1991) with respect to the potential for formation of Polar Stratospheric Clouds and for isolation of the north polar vortex. Daily NMC temperature minima at 465 K late in the 1993–94 winter and again in December 1994 were the lowest values experienced at those times of year (since 1978). Northern PV gradients were unusually strong in 1991–92 prior to late January and throughout the winter in both 1992–93 and 1994–95. Of all northern winters since 1978, 1994–95 with its early extended cold spell and persistently strong PV gradients most resembled the Antarctic winter lower stratosphere. Even so, temperatures were never as low, nor was the polar vortex as large, as during a typical southern winter. Judged by daily temperature minima and PV gradients at 465 K, meteorological conditions in the Arctic winter lower stratosphere during the UARS period were more conducive to vortex ozone loss by heterogeneous chemistry than in most previous winters since 1978–79.

The anomalous Arctic lower stratospheric polar vortex of 1992-1993

Potential vorticity (PV) gradients defining the lower stratospheric vortex during the 1992–1993 winter were anomalously strong and persistent compared to those during the last 16 Arctic winters. For ≈3 months PV gradients were closer to typical Antarctic values than to most Arctic values. Air motion diagnostics computed for 3-dimensional air parcel trajectories confirm that the 1992–1993 Arctic lower stratospheric vortex was substantially more isolated than is typical. Such isolation will delay and reduce the export of the higher ozone typical of the winter lower stratospheric vortex to mid-latitudes. This may have contributed to the record-low total ozone amounts observed in northern mid-latitudes in 1993.

Comparisons of observed ozone and temperature trends in the lower stratosphere

One result of the Ozone Assessment [WMO, 1989] is that there is a significant negative ozone trend in the lower stratosphere and upper troposphere from 1970 through 1986. In this paper we examine the relationship of this trend in ozone to that of temperature in the same altitude region utilizing a 62 station set of rawinsonde data, and compare the results to the changes in temperature determined from a radiative equilibrium model calculation. The calculated and observed trends in lower stratospheric temperature indicate substantive agreement in shape and magnitude of the vertical profiles.

Comparisons of observed ozone trends in the stratosphere through examination of Umkehr and balloon ozonesonde data

During the past several years, several authors have published results of the annual and seasonal trends depicted in the total ozone data from both satellite and ground-based observations. The examination of the vertical profile data available from the balloon ozonesonde and Umkehr observations, however, has been generally restricted to limited periods and to nonseasonal trend calculations. Within this study, the authors have examined the nonseasonal and the seasonal trend behavior of the ozone profile data from both ozonesonde and Umkehr measurements in a consistent manner, covering the same extended time period, 1968-1991, thus providing the first overall comparison of results. Their results reaffirm the observation of significant negative ozone trends in both the lower stratosphere (15-20 km), about {minus}6% per decade, and upper stratosphere (35-50 km), about {minus}6% per decade, separated by a nodal point in the region of 25-30 km. The upper stratosphere decrease is, apparently, associated with the classic gas phase chemical effect of the chlorofluorocarbons, whereas the cause of the lower stratospheric decline is still under investigation, but may well be associated with the chlorine and bromine chemistry in this region. 27 refs., 9 figs., 4 tabs.

Stratospheric meteorological conditions in the arctic polar vortex, 1991 to 1992.

Stratospheric meteorological conditions during the Airborne Arctic Stratospheric Expedition II (AASE II) presented excellent observational opportunities from Bangor, Maine, because the polar vortex was located over southeastern Canada for significant periods during the 1991-1992 winter. Temperature analyses showed that nitric acid trihydrates (NAT temperatures below 195 k) should have formed over small regions in early December. The temperatures in the polar vortex warmed beyond NAT temperatures by late January (earlier than normal). Perturbed chemistry was found to be associated with these cold temperatures.

Northern hemisphere total ozone values from 1989–1993 determined with the NOAA‐11 Solar Backscatter Ultraviolet (SBUV/2) instrument

Determinations of global total ozone amounts have been made from recently reprocessed measurements with the SBUV/2 on the NOAA-11 environmental satellite since January 1989. This data set employs a new algorithm and an updated calibration. Comparisons with total ozone amounts derived from a significant subset of the global network of Dobson spectrophotometers shows a 0.3% bias between the satellite and ground measurements for the period January 1989-May 1993. Comparisons with the data from individual stations exhibit differing degrees of agreement which could be due to the matchup procedures and also to the uncertainties in the Dobson data. The SBUV/2 data set discussed here traces the Northern Hemisphere total ozone from 1989 to the present, showing a marked decrease from the average of those years starting in the summer of 1992 and continuing into 1993, with an apparent returning to more normal levels in late 1993. 17 refs., 21 figs.

Approximate separation of volcanic and 11-year signals in the SBUV-SBUV/2 total ozone record over the 1979-1995 Period

The combined Nimbus 7 SBUV, NOAA 11, and preliminary NOAA 9 SBUV/2 monthly zonal mean total ozone data set, extending from January 1979 to December 1995, is analyzed with a multiple regression statistical model that includes a term to describe the direct effect of volcanic aerosols on total ozone. Outside of polar regions, which are not included in this analysis, the volcanic regression coefficients in the northern hemisphere are negative (consistent with heterogeneous chemical losses of ozone on volcanic sulfate aerosols) and reach their maximum values between 40°N - 60°N latitude. Although inclusion of the aerosol term in the statistical model introduces some additional uncertainty to the derived solar response, statistically significant values of the solar coefficients are found in northern and southern subtropical regions throughout the year, with maximum amplitudes of ∼2.5% at 30° latitude in both hemispheres during winter. We conclude that the 11-year signal in the SBUV-SBUV/2 total ozone record is approximately separable from volcanic aerosol effects.