Richard D. McPeters

Record Low Global Ozone in 1992

The 1992 global average total ozone, measured by the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) on the Nimbus-7 satellite, was 2 to 3 percent lower than any earlier year observed by TOMS (1979 to 1991). Ozone amounts were low in a wide range of latitudes in both the Northern and Southern hemispheres, and the largest decreases were in the regions from 10�S to 20�S and 100N to 60�N. Global ozone in 1992 is at least 1.5 percent lower than would be predicted by a statistical model that includes a linear trend and accounts for solar cycle variation and the quasi-biennial oscillation. These results are confirmed by comparisons with data from other ozone monitoring instruments: the SBUV/2 instrument on the NOAA-11 satellite, the TOMS instrument on the Russian Meteor-3 satellite, the World Standard Dobson Instrument 83, and a collection of 22 ground-based Dobson instruments.

Algorithm for the estimation of vertical ozone profiles from the backscattered ultraviolet technique

An implementation of the optimal estimation scheme to obtain vertical ozone profiles from satellite measurements of backscattered solar ultraviolet (buv) radiation is described. This algorithm (Version 6.0) has been used to produce a 15-year data set of global ozone profiles from Nimbus 7 SBUV, NOAA 11 SBUV/2, and Space Shuttle SSBUV instruments. A detailed discussion of the information content of the measurement is presented. Using high vertical resolution ozone profiles from the SAGE II experiment as “truth” profiles, it is shown that the buv technique can capture short-term variabilities of ozone in 5-km vertical layers, between 0.3 mbar and 100 mbar, with a precision of 5–15%. However, outside the 1–20 mbar range, buv-derived results are heavily influenced by a priori assumptions. To minimize this influence, it is recommended that the studies of long-term trends using buv data be restricted to 1–20 mbar range. Outside this range, only the column amounts of ozone between 20 mbar and surface, and above 1 mbar, can be considered relatively free of a priori assumptions.

Forcings and chaos in interannual to decadal climate change

We investigate the roles of climate forcings and chaos (unforced variability) in climate change via ensembles of climate simulations in which we add forcings one by one. The experiments suggest that most interannual climate variability in the period 1979–1996 at middle and high latitudes is chaotic. But observed SST anomalies, which themselves are partly forced and partly chaotic, account for much of the climate variability at low latitudes and a small portion of the variability at high latitudes. Both a natural radiative forcing (volcanic aerosols) and an anthropogenic forcing (ozone depletion) leave clear signatures in the simulated climate change that are identified in observations. Pinatubo aerosols warm the stratosphere and cool the surface globally, causing a tendency for regional surface cooling. Ozone depletion cools the lower stratosphere, troposphere and surface, steepening the temperature lapse rate in the troposphere. Solar irradiance effects are small, but our model is inadequate to fully explore this forcing. Well-mixed anthropogenic greenhouse gases cause a large surface wanning that, over the 17 years, approximately offsets cooling by the other three mechanisms. Thus the net calculated effect of all measured radiative forcings is approximately zero surface temperature trend and zero heat storage in the ocean for the period 1979–1996. Finally, in addition to the four measured radiative forcings, we add an initial (1979) disequilibrium forcing of +0.65 W/m2. This forcing yields a global surface warming of about 0.2°C over 1979–1996, close to observations, and measurable heat storage in the ocean. We argue that the results represent evidence of a planetary radiative imbalance of at least 0.5° W/m2; this disequilibrium presumably represents unrealized wanning due to changes of atmospheric composition prior to 1979. One implication of the disequilibrium forcing is an expectation of new record global temperatures in the next few years. The best opportunity for observational confirmation of the disequilibrium is measurement of ocean temperatures adequate to define heat storage.

Anomalously low ozone over the Arctic

Total ozone observations from the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) instruments during March 1997 reveal an extensive region of low column densities in the Arctic region centered near the north pole. Values were below 250 Dobson units for nearly a two week period during this period, and were correlated with the position of the northern lower stratospheric polar vortex. The March 1997 average total ozone column densities were more than 30% lower than the average of column densities observed during the 1979–1982 March period.

Northern hemisphere atmospheric effects due to the July 2000 Solar Proton Event

The third largest solar proton event in the past thirty years took place during July 14-16, 2000, and had a significant impact on the earths atmosphere. These energetic protons produced both HO x (H, OH, HO 2 ) and NO x (N, NO, NO 2 ) constituents in the mesosphere and upper stratosphere at polar latitudes (> 60° geomagnetic) of both hemispheres. The temporal evolution of increases in NO and NO 2 during the event at northern polar latitudes were measured by the UARS HALOE instrument. Increases in mesospheric NO x of over 50 ppbv were found in the HALOE measurements. Measurements from the UARS HALOE and NOAA 14 SBUV/2 instruments indicate short-term (∼day) middle mesospheric ozone decreases of over 70% caused by short-lived HO x during the event with a longer-term (several days) upper stratospheric ozone depletion of up to 9% caused by longer-lived NO x . We believe this is the first time that the three constituents NO, NO 2 , and ozone were all measured simultaneously during a proton event. The observations constitute a dramatic confirmation of the impact of a large particle event in the control of ozone in the polar middle atmosphere and offer the opportunity to test theories of constituent changes driven by particle precipitation.

A new self-calibration method applied to TOMS and SBUV backscattered ultraviolet data to determine long-term global ozone change

The currently archived (1989) total ozone mapping spectrometer (TOMS) and solar backscattered ultraviolet (SBUV) total ozone data (version 5) show a global average decrease of about 9.0% from November 1978 to November 1988. This large decrease disagrees with an approximate 3.5% decrease estimated from the ground-based Dobson network. The primary source of disagreement was found to arise from an overestimate of reflectivity change and its incorrect wavelengths dependence for the diffuser plate used when measuring solar irradiance. Both of these factors have led to an overestimate of the rate of atmospheric ozone depletion by SBUV and TOMS. For total ozone measured by TOMS, a means has been found to use the measured radiance-irradiance ratio from several wavelengths pairs to construct an internally self consistent calibration. The method uses the wavelength dependence of the sensitivity to calibration errors and the requirement that albedo ratios for each wavelength pair yield the same total ozone amounts. Smaller errors in determining spacecraft attitude, synchronization problems with the photon counting electronics, and sea glint contamination of boundary reflectivity data have been corrected or minimized. New climatological low-ozone profiles have been incorporated into the TOMS algorithm that are appropriate for Antarctic ozone hole conditions and other low ozone cases. The combined corrections have led to a new determination of the global average total ozone trend (version 6) as a 2.9±1.3% decrease over 11 years (October 1978 to November 1989). Version 6 data are shown to be in agreement within error limits with the average of 39 ground-based Dobson stations and with the world standard Dobson spectrometer 83 at Mauna Loa, Hawaii. The global average ozone trend from version 6 data shows the presence of varying short-period trends (1979 to 1983, −0.33%/yr; 1983 to 1986, −0.91% yr, and 1986 to 1990, +0.16%/yr) that are partially masked in the original version 5 trends.

An assessment of the accuracy of 14.5 years of Nimbus 7 TOMS version 7 ozone data by comparison with the Dobson network

A Version 7 algorithm and calibration have been applied to the 14.5 year Nimbus 7 TOMS ozone record (1978–1993). The ozone retrieval algorithm has been significantly improved for cloudy conditions and for high solar zenith angles, and the radiative transfer used in the algorithm is more accurate. New calibration techniques have been used that produce a very stable data set even after 1990 when TOMS degradation became significant. TOMS ozone now agrees with average ozone from an ensemble of 30 northern hemisphere ground stations (Dobsons and Brewers) to within ±1% throughout most of the 14.5 year record. The time-dependent drift relative to Dobson is 0.29% per decade through the end of the data record. There is almost no solar zenith angle dependence in the comparison for angles below about 80°, but data should be used with caution for larger solar zenith angles. There is also a residual total ozone dependence in the TOMS-Dobson difference, of about 1% per 100 DU.

Detecting the recovery of total column ozone

International agreements for the limitation of ozone-depleting substances have already resulted in decreases in concentrations of some of these chemicals in the troposphere. Full compliance and understanding of all factors contributing to ozone depletion are still uncertain; however, reasonable expectations are for a gradual recovery of the ozone layer over the next 50 years. Because of the complexity of the processes involved in ozone depletion, it is crucial to detect not just a decrease in ozone-depleting substances but also a recovery in the ozone layer. The recovery is likely to be detected in some areas sooner than others because of natural variability in ozone concentrations. On the basis of both the magnitude and autocorrelation of the noise from Nimbus 7 Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer ozone measurements, estimates of the time required to detect a fixed trend in ozone at various locations around the world are presented. Predictions from the Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) two-dimensional chemical model are used to estimate the time required to detect predicted trends in different areas of the world. The analysis is based on our current understanding of ozone chemistry, full compliance with the Montreal Protocol and its amendments, and no intervening factors, such as major volcanic eruptions or enhanced stratospheric cooling. The results indicate that recovery of total column ozone is likely to be detected earliest in the Southern Hemisphere near New Zealand, southern Africa, and southern South America and that the range of time expected to detect recovery for most regions of the world is between 15 and 45 years. Should the recovery be slower than predicted by the GSFC model, owing, for instance, to the effect of greenhouse gas emissions, or should measurement sites be perturbed, even longer times would be needed for detection.

The solar cycle variation of ozone in the stratosphere inferred from Nimbus 7 and NOAA 11 satellites

The combined Nimbus 7 solar backscattered ultraviolet (SBUV) and NOAA 11 SBUV/2 ozone data, covering a period of more than a solar cycle (about 15 years), are used to study the UV response of ozone in the stratosphere. The study shows that about 2% change in total column ozone and about 5-7% change in ozone mixing ratio in the upper stratosphere (0.7 to 2 hPa) may be attributed to the change in the solar UV flux over a solar cycle. In the upper stratosphere, where photochemical processes are expected to play a major role, the measured solar cycle variation of ozone is significantly larger than inferred either from the photochemical models or from the ozone response to the 27-day solar UV modulation. For example, the observed solar cycle related change in ozone mixing ratio at 2 hPa is about 1% for 1% change in the solar UV flux near 200 nm. The inferred change in ozone from either the photochemical models or from the 27-day ozone-UV response is about a factor of 2-3 lower than this value.

Long-term ozone trends derived from the 16-year combined Nimbus 7/Meteor 3 TOMS Version 7 record

Ozone measurements from the Nimbus 7 TOMS instrument, which operated from November 1978 through early May 1993, have been extended through December 1994 using data from the TOMS instrument on-board the Russian Meteor 3 satellite. Both TOMS data records have recently been recalibrated, and then reprocessed using the Version 7 retrieval algorithm. Long-term trend estimates obtained from a multiple regression analysis show ozone losses in the extended data record similar to those reported in previous studies using Version 6 TOMS and SBUV data, and ground-based Dobson data. Ozone continues to decline through the end of 1994, with the most significant ozone losses occurring in the high southern latitudes during October (−20% per decade) and in the northern mid- to high-latitudes during March/April (−6 to −8% per decade). There is no significant ozone trend in the tropics. Annual-average trends derived from the Nimbus 7 Version 7 data are 0–2.5% per decade less negative than those derived over the same time period using Version 6 data.